Risk Analysis in the Veterinary Services

1
Risk Analysis in the Veterinary Services

• Preben Willeberg
• Chief Veterinary Officer

2
Disease and trade

• Historically trade has led to disease spread
• 1920 Rinderpest from India to Belgium
• 1946 FMD from Brazil to Mexico
• 1978 ASF Iberian peninsula? to Haiti
• 1997 CSF in the Netherlands
• 1997 FMD in Taiwan
• 2000 FMD in Asia
• 2001 FMD from the UK to mainland Europe

3
The need for international regulation

• The 1920 Rinderpest outbreak in Belgium
  highlighted the need to have an international
  body to regulate trade in animals and animal
  products
• In 1924 the Office International des Epizooties
  (OIE) was created
• 28 countries

4
OIE role

• Disease information system
• Improve disease surveillance and control
• International trade regulations

5
WTO and OIE

• 1994 Final Act of GATTs Uruguay Round
• World Trade Organization, January 1995
• Agreement on the application of sanitary and
  phytosanitary measures (SPS)
• OIE is responsible for drafting international
  standards for animal health

6
OIE membership
7
SPS Agreement

• Allow increased trade of agricultural products
• Avoid the use of SPS measures as disguised
  barriers to trade
• Recognizes the right to protect human, animal and
  plant health

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Risk, Trust and Trade

• BUT OFTEN...
• Excessively stringent measures
• Barriers to trade
• Lack of scientific basis

• Zero risk approach to trade
• If in doubt, keep it out...
• Effective in avoiding disease introductions

9
Zero risk and trade

• Zero risk does not exist
• Trade implies risk
• Lack of trade also implies risk
• Unregulated trade

10
The SPS Agreement contribution

• Regionalization
• Risk Analysis
• Harmonization
• Equivalence
• Transparency

11
International animal health standards

• OIE International Animal Health Code
• List A and B diseases
• Guidelines for
• Risk Analysis
• Regionalization
• Surveillance
• Evaluation of veterinary services

12
Decision tree for evaluating SPS measures
13
Risk Analysis process

• With epidemiology
• Hazard identification
• Risk assessment
• Risk management
• Risk communication

• Without epidemiology
• Enthusiasm
• Skepticism
• Mistrust
• Depression

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Epidemiology and risk analysis

• Animal health risk analysis relies on
  epidemiology
• The risk of risk analysis is to become merely a
  probabilistic exercise
• Veterinary epidemiology ensures biological
  coherence in the risk analysis process

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Risk Analysis process
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Challenges and opportunities

• The SPS agreement highlights the importance of
  veterinary epidemiology (ists) in international
  trade
• Solutions call for a multidisciplinary approach
• Shift from herd-level epidemiology to a broader
  scale zone-country-region

17
Challenges and opportunities

• Methods to demonstrate disease freedom
• Statistically valid
• Practical and economically viable
• Quantitative link between risk assessment and the
  evaluation of veterinary services
• Training in epidemiology and risk analysis
• Universities
• Role of OIE Collaborating Centers

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Conclusions

• The SPS agreement requires significant
  epidemiologic input to provide the scientific
  basis in the application of sanitary and
  phytosanitary measures
• Risk analysis and regionalization are the core
  concepts

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Conclusions

• The SPS Agreement has had a major impact in the
  organizational structure of veterinary services
• Multidisciplinary groups
• Risk analysis and regionalization units
• Training
• Many countries face difficulties in
  implementation of the SPS Agreement

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Conclusions

• In the past SPS measures have been applied in a
  defensive, reactive mode
• Opportunity to shift to a proactive approach that
  promotes scientific logic, epidemiology,
  agricultural production and international trade

21
Blind belief in authority is the greatest enemy
of truth Albert Einstein
22
Risk assessment for FMD to occur in Denmark
23
Conclusions

• Good science, transparency and trust are the
  essential elements in the application of SPS
  measures