Global Change Research in the Agricultural Research Service U'S' Department of Agriculture

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Global Change Researchin theAgricultural
Research ServiceU.S. Department of Agriculture

• Steven R. Shafer
• National Program Leader

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Five main points about the USDA-ARS Global Change
research program

• Conducted within a larger framework of
  agricultural research
• Predicated on specific viewpoints about
  agriculture and the environment
• Main components and projects map to USGCRP and
  CCRI scientific subjects
• Highly relevant research is conducted in other
  ARS programs
• Plans for new major initiatives address pressing
  scientific and policy needs.

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Five main points about the USDA-ARS Global Change
research program

• Conducted within a larger framework of
  agricultural research
• Predicated on specific viewpoints about
  agriculture and the environment
• Main components and projects map to USGCRP and
  CCRI scientific subjects
• Highly relevant research is conducted in other
  ARS programs
• Plans for new major initiatives address pressing
  scientific and policy needs.

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Leading America towards a better future through
agricultural research and information.
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ARS improves the way America produces and uses
food and fiber.

• Quality and nutritional value
• Sustainability of natural resources and
  environmental quality
• Economic value for producers, consumers, and
  communities

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Research is an important part of USDAs mission

• Practical and scientific experiments since
  1862.
• By World War II, USDA received about 40 of all
  Federal research funds.
• Agricultural Research Administration created
  during World War II.
• Agricultural Research Service created in 1953.

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104 Locations Approx. 2,000 scientists Approx.
1,200 research projects
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ARS National Programs
Animal Production Natural Resources Crop
Production
Plant, Microbial Insect Germplasm Conservation
Development Plant Biological Molecular
Processes Plant Diseases Crop Protection
Quarantine Crop Production New Uses, Quality
Marketability of Plant Animal Products
Bioenergy Energy Alternatives Methyl Bromide
Alternatives
Water Quality Management Soil Resource
Management Air Quality Global Change
(18) Rangeland, Pasture Forages Manure
Byproduct Utilization Integrated Agricultural
Systems
Food Animal Production Animal Health Arthropod
Pests of Animals and Humans Animal Well-Being and
Stress Control Systems Aquaculture Human
Nutrition Food Safety (animal plant products)
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Each ARS research project is part of one or two
National Programs.

• The review of a project is controlled by the
  majority National Program association.

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Relevance
Input
Input
The ARS National Program Cycle is 5 years.
Planning
Assessment
Quality
Impact
Implementation
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The ARS National Program Cycle

• Input Customer workshops, program Action Plan
  development (Gl. Ch. 1999)
• Planning Individual 5-year project plan
  development, OSQR review, and revision (Gl. Ch.
  2003)
• Implementation Research conducted
• Assessment In-house reviews of projects, parts
  of entire program customer workshop
  retrospective and initiation of next cycle.

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Five main points about the Global Change National
Program

• Conducted within a larger framework of
  agricultural research
• Predicated on specific viewpoints about
  agriculture and the environment
• Main components and projects map to USGCRP and
  CCRI scientific subjects
• Highly relevant research is conducted in other
  ARS programs
• Plans for new major initiatives address pressing
  scientific and policy needs.

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The ARS Global Change National Program strives to
ensure continued improvements in the production
and use of food and fiber. Tomorrows
generations will need those improvements, despite
todays uncertainties in environmental condition
and variability.
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The Program is based on several widely accepted
facts.

• Weather extremes and climate variability are
  major limitations to production.
• Land use and land-use change affect the
  environment, and vice-versa.
• Crops are being produced in an atmosphere
  containing a constantly increasing concentration
  of CO2.
• Crops and range plants are not alone in their
  exposure to changes in weather, climate, and CO2.
• Increasing soil carbon has broad environmental
  benefits on and off the farm.

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Program Goals

• Project environmental changes and extremes that
  pose risks to agriculture.
• Quantify their likelihood and consequences.
• Identify processes we can manage.
• Develop ways in which agriculture can help reduce
  net GHG emissions

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My administration is committed to cutting our
nation's greenhouse gas intensity -- how much we
emit per unit of economic activity -- by 18
percent over the next 10 years. To achieve this
goal, our nation must move forward on many
fronts, looking at every sector of our economy.
When we make decisions, we want to make sure we
do so on sound science not what sounds good, but
what is real.
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Environment
Policies and Programs
Management
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How will Agricultural GHG Intensity change if
rainfall patterns change, or CO2 concentration
increases, or nighttime temperature increases? Is
it Emissions that drive the change in
Agricultural GHG Intensity as environment
changes? Or is it Sinks? Or changes in
agricultural Production? Or some combination due
to complex interactions?
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Will forage quality change if climate changes, or
if we alter management in response to change?
Will that have an effect on animal productivity
per acre? On cattle methane emissions?
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How will Agricultural GHG Intensity change if we
modify manure handling systems to reduce odors?
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Will crop productivity change if we implement
policies to encourage C sequestration in
corn-soybean production systems in Iowa? Will
cattle emissions change due to altered feed
quality? If so, will C sequestration policies
reduce overall Agricultural GHG intensity?
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Soil Microbes and N2O
Environment
Tillage Carbon Sequestration
Policies and Programs
Management
CO2 Crop Yield, Quality
Risks from Weather Variability
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The ARS Global ChangeBig Picture

• Global Change (not including Methyl Bromide
  Alternatives research)
• 25 projects
• 12.6 million
• 37 SYs

• Carbon Storage
• 4.5 million
• 13 SYs

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National Program 204 Global Change Research
100, 70, or 60
40 or 30
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Five main points about the USDA-ARS Global Change
research program

• Conducted within a larger framework of
  agricultural research
• Predicated on specific viewpoints about
  agriculture and the environment
• Main components and projects map to USGCRP and
  CCRI scientific subjects
• Highly relevant research is conducted in other
  ARS programs
• Plans for new major initiatives address pressing
  scientific and policy needs.

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ARS Global Change Research Action Plan Components

• Carbon Cycle and Carbon Storage
• Trace Gases (N2O and CH4)
• Agricultural Ecosystem Impacts
• Changes in Weather and the Water Cycle at Farm,
  Ranch, and Regional Scales

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ARS Global Change Action Plan

• Component I Carbon Cycle and Carbon Storage
• Problem Areas Land Uses and Management
• Cropping Systems and Tillage
• Grazinglands/CRP/Buffers
• Irrigation and Water Management
• Plantation Tree Farming
• Problem Areas Mechanisms and Processes
• Organic Carbon Transformations
• Inorganic Carbon
• Interactions of the C and N Cycles
• Measurement, Validation, and Modeling

C-CYCLE OBSERV ECOSYS LULCC
C-CYCLE OBS MONIT CLIMATE-ECO
DECISION SUP
LULC
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Crop residue managementaffects soil C

• More soil organic carbon came from corn roots
  than from leaves, stalks.
• Removal of crop residue decreased carbon
  (implications for use of stover for bioenergy).
• Most new carbon stayed near the surface.
• Moldboard plowing decreased carbon.
• Nitrogen fertilization was needed to increase SOC.

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Sinks

• Cropland potential
• 75 208 MMTC/yr
• Grazingland potential
• 30 110 MMTC/yr

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Cooperative research with Los Alamos National
Laboratory Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy
(LIBS)
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ARS Global Change Action Plan

• Component II Trace Gases
• Problem Areas
• Cropping Systems
• Enteric Fermentation
• Waste Management
• Rangelands, Pastures, and Wetlands

C-CYCLE OBSERV ECOSYS REG SCI
DS LULCC
C-CYCLE OBS MONIT CLIMATE-ECO
DECISION SUP TECHNOL LULC
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Development of open-path laser techniques Measurem
ent of methane emissions from ruminant livestock
in the field
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In the Colorado shortgrass steppe experiment, N2O
emissions from soil are greater in 750 ppm CO2
than in 375 ppm CO2.
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ARS Global Change Action Plan

• Component III
• Agricultural Ecosystem Impacts
• Problem Areas
• Cropping Systems
• Grazinglands (Range and Pastures)
• Pests

OBSERV ECOSYS REG SCI DS LULCC
OBS MONIT CLIMATE-ECO DECISION SUP LULC
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ARS and cooperators have conducted FACE
experiments with irrigated crops near Phoenix,
AZ, since 1989.
ARS and the University of Illinois are conducting
a CO2 X O3 interaction FACE study.
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ARS scientists developed the most widely used
design for open-top field chambers. Effects of
CO2, O3 Interactions of gases with UV-B, pests
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Colorado Shortgrass Steppe
Elevated CO2 increases productivity up to 75 in
dry years.
Needle thread - increased growth with enriched
CO2. Western wheatgrass, blue grama no increase.
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Change in RAGWEED reproductionwith CO2 enrichment

• Plants produced more pollen with increased CO2.

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Biomass and Catkin Length of Ragweed along a
Transect
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Carbon dioxide affects glyphosate efficacy in the
field.
Ambient CO2
2 x CO2
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ARS Global Change Action Plan

• Component IV Changes in Weather and the Water
  Cycle at Farm, Ranch, and Regional Scales
• Problem Areas
• Interaction of Water and Energy Balances in Large
  Heterogeneous Agricultural Systems
• Land Use and Land Cover
• Changes in Water Availability
• Climate and Weather Variability and Extremes
• Changing Snowpack Accumulation and Seasonal Water
  Yield
• Scaling of Climate Change to Field, Farm, Ranch,
  and Regional Scales

W-CYCLE OBSERV REG SCI DS LULCC
CLIMATE-ECO OBS MONIT DECISION SUP LULC
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Climate and weather risk-based decision support
tools for agriculture. Crop selection, livestock
inventory, and production management based on
NOAA regional climate forecasts and related
information at the farm scale.
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Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) predicting water
supplies in the West. Spring runoff peak will
shift by 2-4 weeks earlier in the year. The
average proportion of winter runoff/summer
runoff in the Rockies will change from 13/87 to
28/72.
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Five main points about the USDA-ARS Global Change
research program

• Conducted within a larger framework of
  agricultural research
• Predicated on specific viewpoints about
  agriculture and the environment
• Main components and projects map to USGCRP and
  CCRI scientific subjects
• Highly relevant research is conducted in other
  ARS programs
• Plans for new major initiatives address pressing
  scientific and policy needs.

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Research relevant to global change is conducted
in other ARS National Programs.

• Water Quality and Management
• Soil Resources Management
• Air Quality
• Rangeland, Pasture, and Forages
• Manure and Byproduct Utilization
• Integrated Agricultural Systems
• Crop Production
• Methyl Bromide Alternatives
• Human Nutrition

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ARS Rangeland CO2 Flux Network Bowen ratio/energy
balance units
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Locations of AmeriFlux and ARS Rangeland CO2 Flux
Network sites in North America.
C-CYCLE LULCC OBSERV
C-CYCLE OBS MONIT CLIM-ECO LULC
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The ARS Methyl Bromide Alternatives National
Program

• Part of ARS USGCRP budget
• CCRI interests in understanding atmospheric
  composition and chemistry (stratospheric ozone
  depletion, UV-B radiation)
• Alternatives to the use of methyl bromide as a
  soil and postharvest commodity treatment.
• FY 2002 17.8 million

ATM COMP
ATM COMP
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Selected accomplishments of theMethyl Bromide
AlternativesNational Program

• Soil solarization to kill weed seeds and
  pathogens in soil.
• Plant genes that promote colonization of roots by
  microbes that inhibit pathogens.
• Cold treatment for eliminating insect pests in
  fruit.
• Drip-irrigation application methods for chemical
  alternatives to methyl bromide.
• Pheromones and bait traps to kill insects.

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Five main points about the USDA-ARS Global Change
research program

• Conducted within a larger framework of
  agricultural research
• Predicated on specific viewpoints about
  agriculture and the environment
• Main components and projects map to USGCRP and
  CCRI scientific subjects
• Highly relevant research is conducted in other
  ARS programs
• Plans for new major initiatives address pressing
  scientific and policy needs.

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AgriFlux Proposed sites for carbon flux
measurements
W Proposed new flux site at Watershed Unit
N Other proposed new flux site
S New soil sampling only
S
R Existing flux site, Rangeland Flux Network
O Other existing flux site
N
R
R
S
R
R
N
S
S
R
S
R
O
W
N
O
R
W
N
N
W
N
W
S
N
R
N
R
N
S
R
N
W
W
R
N
W
R
S
S
N
S
C-CYCLE LULCC OBSERV
C-CYCLE OBS MONIT CLIM-ECO LULC
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GRACEnetGreenhouse-gas Reduction through
Agricultural Carbon Enhancement

• A national network of soil carbon research
  projects with a common theme
• ARS laboratories, university cooperators
• Potential for international expansion

C-CYCLE LULCC OBSERV
DECISION SUP C-CYCLE OBS MONIT
CLIM-ECO LULC
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GRACEnetExperimental concept is based onfour
location-specific plot treatments

• Business as usual
• What is the C accumulation rate under typical
  management practices?
• Maximizing C sequestration rate
• What has to be done to achieve the highest rate
  of sequestration in that production system?
• Minimizing net GHG emissions
• How does this management scenario compare with
  2? What is the sequestration rate?
• Maximizing environmental benefits
• With careful management, how can GHG emissions be
  balanced with water quality, air quality, and
  soil quality goals?

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GRACEnet is not currently funded

• ARS intends to initiate the project in 2003 with
  existing funds.
• Expect to have early partners associated with
  University-based carbon sequestration projects
  sponsored by the USDA Cooperative States
  Research, Education, and Extension Service.
• Canadian and Mexican scientists have expressed
  interest in participating.

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(13)
(25)
C Cycle C Storage
Trace Gases
Ag Ecosys
Weather/Water
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Some Web sites for more information

• The USDA-ARS Home Page
• www.ars.usda.gov
• The ARS Global Change National Program home page
• www.nps.ars.usda.gov/programs/programs.htm?NPNUMBE
  R204
• The OSQR Home Page
• www.ars.usda.gov/osqr/index.html
• The RPES Home Page
• www.afm.ars.usda.gov/rpes/

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For additional information contact

• Steven R. Shafer, PhD
• National Program Leader, Global Change
• U.S. Department of Agriculture
• Agricultural Research Service
• 5601 Sunnyside Avenue
• Beltsville, MD 20705
• Tel. [phone]
• Fax [phone]
• Email ltsrs_at_ars.usda.govgt