Introducing a framework for planning a Foresight exercise

1
Introducing a framework for planning a Foresight
exercise

• Dr. Michael Keenan
• PREST, University of Manchester, UK
• Michael.Keenan_at_manchester.ac.uk
• 13th National Quality Congress
• Istanbul, Turkey
• November 2004

2
Outline

• Key characteristics of Foresight
• Consideration of the various elements that need
  to be considered before embarking upon a
  foresight exercise based upon guidelines
  developed in the Handbook for Knowledge Society
  Foresight (EFL, 2003)

3
Five essential characteristics

• Anticipation and projections of long-term
  developments
• Interactive and participative methods of debate
  and analysis
• Forging new social networks
• Elaboration of strategic visions based on a
  shared sense of commitment
• Implications for present-day decisions and actions

4
What does a Foresight exercise look like?

• Many shapes and sizes!
• Common aspects experts, panels, project team,
  fixed budget and time, sponsor, reporting and
  recommendations
• Typical variations methodological
  sophistication, degree of participation, budget
  and time available, time horizon, coverage,
  organisational configuration, etc.

5
Points to consider when planning a Foresight
exercise

• Rationales
• Objectives
• Orientation
• Level
• Review existing arrangements
• Time horizon
• Coverage
• Participation Consultation
• Raising Awareness Publicity
• Resources
• Methods to be used
• Organisation Management
• Outputs and Intervention
• Outcomes, Reflexivity, Renewal

• Determined
• through an
• iterative
• process

6
Rationales

• Escalating industrial and economic competition
• Increasing pressure on governmental spending
• Changing nature of knowledge production
• Emergence of new styles of policy-making
• Increasing desire for anticipatory intelligence
• Building advocacy coalitions
• Policy transfer (bandwagon effects?)
• The Millennium Effect

7
Starting levels for Foresight(Not mutually
exclusive)

• Territorial National (most visible),
  Sub-national (regional, city-region /
  municipality), Supranational (bilateral,
  multilateral, International Organisation), Global
• Domain economic, social, environmental,
  technology, scientific discipline
• Alternative starting points
• Flows (e.g. rivers, pollutants, people, traffic,
  goods and services, etc.)
• Networks (e.g. people, organisations,
  infrastructures, etc.)
• Markets (e.g. goods, services, labour)

8
Time horizon

• Typically between 5-30 years
• Should be beyond normal planning horizons
• Will be dependent upon things like the issues to
  be considered, and the needs of strategy and
  decision making

9
Examples of time horizon
10
Participation (1)

• Nature how are actors to be engaged in an
  exercise? what will they be expected to do?
• Extent who is to be involved?
• Frequency when will actors be invited to
  participate?

11
Who should I get on board?

• This will depend upon
• The scope of your planned activities
• The social, economic and political culture

• Possible Early Targets
• Senior public officials
• Business spokespersons
• Senior scientists
• Other respected figures from civil society
• Ministers and other politicians
• Prospective sponsors

12
Possible objections
You cant predict the future Scientific
serendipity Fatalism Inertia Institutional
competition Disputes over the scope Proof of
concept Costs
Broad Philosophical
Practicalities Details
13
Resources
Finance
Cultural
Need to be thought about at every stage of a
Foresight exercise
Infrastructure
Political
Human Resources
Time
14
Overview of some common methods(Loveridge, 1996)
15
Foresight methods

• Important criteria for choosing methods
• Participation
• Desired Outputs
• Resources (esp. time, money, and expertise)
• Quantitative/Qualitative data requirements
• Time horizon
• Methodological competence (often key factor)
• Suitability for combining with other methods
  (feeders and triangulation)
• Suitability for visualising the results

16
Organisation and Management

• Some common organisational forms
• Steering Group
• Panels of Experts and Stakeholders
• Project Management Team
• Wider Pool of Participants

17
Outputs (1)

• Tangible and intangible products associated with
  foresight
• Must often be designed with intervention
  strategy in mind (especially target audience and
  outcomes desired)
• Different methods produce different products

18
Outputs (2)

• Examples of tangible products include
• Scenarios and Visions
• Baseline and benchmarking studies
• Critical technology lists
• Products should be attractive and marketed
  through, for example, reports, conferences, TV
  and radio, newspapers and journals, school and
  university curricula, etc.

19
Outputs (3)

• But a key output should be the process benefits
  associated with TF, e.g.
• Networking and resultant horizontal linkages
• Commitment to guiding visions
• Adoption of long-term thinking and Foresight
  practices
• Perhaps the most desirable outcome is a
  Foresight Culture.
• Difficult to achieve - should be a long-term aim
• Can be facilitated (in part) through training,
  the production of methodological guides, and
  demonstrators of Foresights benefits

20
Summary

• Scoping is a necessary step of a foresight
  exercise, allowing a project plan to be drafted
• This session has set out a framework with a
  number of elements that need to be thought about
  and addressed
• The framework provides a starting point for you
  to design and organise a foresight exercise

21
Questions and Comments?

• Dr. Michael Keenan
• PREST, University of Manchester, UK
• Michael.Keenan_at_manchester.ac.uk