Garrett County Total NonAgricultural Employment First Quarter 1996 through First Quarter 2003

1
Americas Global Competitiveness
On Behalf of MDGFOA
By Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. October
25, 2007
2
Historic and Projected World Output Growth, 2004
through 2008
Source International Monetary Fund
2007-2008 data are projected
3
Estimated GDP in Current US Dollars, Select
Global Areas, 2007
Source International Monetary Fund
4
Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global
Areas, 2007
Source International Monetary Fund
5
Historic and Projected Foreign Direct Investment
2002 through 2011
Source Economist Intelligence Unit
2007-2011 data are projected
6
Global Risk Factors
Upside Risk to Global Growth
Downside Risk to Global Growth
Source International Monetary Fund
Chart indicates relative contributions to risks
to global growth WEO World Economic Outlook
(IMF)
7
Thomas Friedmans Ten Forces that have Flattened
the World

• The fall of the Berlin Wall
• Netscapes IPO
• Work flow software
• Open-source software
• Outsourcing

• Offshoring
• Supply-chaining
• Insourcing
• In-forming
• The steroids (things like wireless, expanding
  storage, etc. that supports the other nine forces)

8
U.S. Value of Exports vs. Imports
Source U.S. Census Bureau
9
U.S. Trade Deficit, January 2001 through July 2007
Source Dismal.com
10
Largest U.S. Trade Deficits by Country, 2006
Source U.S. Census Bureau
11
U.S. Share of All U.S. Distributed Patents 1984
2006
Source U.S. Patent and Trademark Office
The country of origin of a patent is determined
by the residence of the first-named inventor.
12
U.S. Federal Basic RD Investment Expenditures,
1976 2007
Source American Association for the Advancement
of Science
Data for 2006 and 2007 are estimates
13
12th Grade National Average Scores, TIMSS
Mathematics General Knowledge, 1999
Source National Center for Education Statistics,
Pursuing Excellence.
14
12th Grade National Average Scores by Gender,
TIMSS Mathematics General Knowledge, 1999
Source National Center for Education Statistics,
Pursuing Excellence.
15
8th Grade National Average Scores, TIMSS
Mathematics General Knowledge, 2003
Source National Center for Education Statistics,
Pursuing Excellence.
16
4th Grade National Average Scores, TIMSS
Mathematics General Knowledge, 2003
Source National Center for Education Statistics,
Pursuing Excellence.
17
Number of Engineering and Information Technology
Bachelor Degrees Awarded in 2004
Source Duke University, Framing the Engineering
Outsourcing Debate, December 2005
Includes Bachelor degrees, Associate degrees in
the U.S., short-cycle degrees in China, and
three-year diplomas in India.
18
U.S. Foreign-Born Share of Employment by
Education among Scientists and Engineers,
1996-2002
Source National Science Foundation
19
Math and Science Demographics are Shifting

• Twenty-five percent of all college-educated U.S.
  workers in Science and Engineering (SE)
  occupations in 2003 were foreign-born
• Forty percent of U.S. doctorate degree holders in
  SE occupations in 2003 were foreign-born
• Among all U.S. doctorate holders in 2003, a
  majority in computer science (57), electrical
  engineering (57), civil engineering (54) and
  mechanical engineering (52) were foreign-born.

Source National Science Foundation
20
Growth in U.S. Real Personal Income
1970 through 2006
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis
21
Top 15 States with the Highest Income Inequality
Source CNN
Virginia ranks 23rd
22
Household Share of Total Income in Maryland
1980, 1990 and 2000
Source Maryland State Data Center
23
Infrastructure Investment

• According to Chinas Vice President of the
  Ministry of Construction, Chinas aggregate
  investment on city infrastructure in 2000 was 10
  times higher than in 1990
• In 1990, the infrastructure investment-to-GDP
  ratio in China was 6 percent. By 2005, this had
  increased to 13 percent. During the same period,
  public infrastructure in the United States was
  around 4.5 percent of GDP.

Source University of Hong Kong Peoples Daily
24
Shanghai, China
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
25
Seoul, S. Korea
Hong Kong, China
26
Mumbai, India
Taipei, Taiwan
27
Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Singapore
28
The 2007 State New Economy Index Select Indicators
Source The Information Technology Innovation
Foundation
29
Conclusions

• Retaining top talent while treating others fairly
  is becoming increasingly difficult and requires
  formidable management/leadership skills
• Recruiting talent will become incredibly arduous
  in the years ahead as Americas most productive
  workers enter a new stage of life
• The global economy represents both opportunity
  and challenge, but for most businesses the
  challenge may well exceed the opportunity and
• Maryland needs globally-oriented leadership to
  fulfill its potential.

30
Thank You

• You can always reach me at abasu_at_sagepolicy.com
• Youll be hearing a lot from us the balance of
  the year.
• Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at
  410.522.7243 (410.522.SAGE)
• Please contact us when you require economic
  research policy analysis.