Energy consumption and truck freight transport demand: Is Denmark a special case

1
Energy consumption and truck freight transport
demand Is Denmark a special case?

• David Bonilla (PhD) and Kim Salling (PhD)
• TSU and St. Annes College, Oxford University
• Technical University of Denmark

2
Aim of the study

• 1. Examine freight system efficiency and energy
  use of truck freight
• 2. Assess the possibility of decoupling freight
  from GDP
• 3. Assess decoupling CO2 (truck freight) from GDP
• 4. Estimate freight cost and output elasticity
  for 5 sectors (1980-2005) using data (spatial,
  weight, economic)

3
Why do we monitor Freight transport energy use?

• 1. Question why monitor transport activity/ and
  energy use?
• Answer
• 3. Improve transport activity resilience
• 4. Reduce CO2 and non CO2 emissions mitigate GHG
  emissions
• 5. Reduce macroeconomic imbalance from shock of
  high oil prices,
• 6. Improve resource efficiency and freight system
  efficiency
• 7. Cost savings from investing in fuel efficiency
  freight ops. logistical practices
• 8. Value of CO2 emissions reductions
• 9. Value of non co2 emissions reduction of truck
  freight

4
Freight transport (weight and distance metric)
5
Denmark, U.S Chinafreight moved (bn. ton-km)
.
6
Freight transport energy use (Direct Energy
Content PJ) 1972- 05
7
Freight transport energy intensity
8
Large trucks fuel economy 1980- 05 van activity
wastes energy
9
Effect of truck size on fuel efficiency for
freight moved (106 pallets) (elaborated using
Larsson (2008) data on fuel use
10
Systematic analysis of truck freight energy use
Vehicle fuel Economy vehicle class
Vehicle usage by vehicle class
Rebound effects Low gasoline price
Truck Load levels (empty running?)
freight transport energy use
Missing Statistics on key indicators Load
factors by vehicle weight Volume moved not t-km
metric
Vehicle sales /stock
Freight / pop
11
Freight transport and fuel cost 1980- 05
12
Freight transport and fuel consumption 1980- 05
13
Freight transport Decoupling trends?
14
Freight transport Decoupling trends?
15
Decoupling trends 1980-97?
16
Freight transport demand response to costs?
17
Freight transport demand response to costs
1980-2005 ?
18
Energy efficiency potentials and actions,
solutions?
19
Regulating fuel economy and truck freight a
missing item!

• CO2 emissions and Euro VI (forthcoming)
• Best Practice Programme
• Logistics and freight operations
• monitoring lack of data on long distance
  freight
• Some political will

• 12 in new truck FE
• (Top-runner measure
• Best Practice Programme
• World leader in regulation
• monitoring data and political will
• truck hybrid promising!

• CO2 emissions
• Two phases (2010-11)
• No best practice programme
• Monitoring difficult due to missing data but
  some political will
• Similar to Japanese method

• CO2 emissions not regulated (forthcoming carbon
  trading under discussion McCain-Obama)
• Best Practice Programme
• Intermodalism
• Monitoring plentiful data but lack of political
  will, except Calif, Oregon, other states

20
Conclusions

• CO2 in freight transport is rapidly increasing
  (services??, imports of freight?)
• Overall Truck freight energy intens is highest in
  OECD
• Voluntary Agreement on CO2/ km is absent for
  truck freight (EU-UK may fail here)
• Agreement should target on-road vehicle fleet
• Fuel economy choices by fleet managers?, vehicle
  sales (stock) gasoline demand increases
• Decoupling may not be strong as previously
  believed
• Future trade patterns (further integration with
  other EU economies)
• EURO VI legislation is our hope!
• Thank you
• david.bonilla_at_ouce.ox.ac.uk

21
Six strategies for transport and energy

• Reduce distance freight (internet economy
  effects)
• Easy for some sectors
• Difficult for many others (rebound effects and
  operation costs)
• Improve vehicle loads, (empty journeys) (freight
  models??)
• Switch to more efficient transport modes
  (rail-water integration)
• Reduce demand by buying locally produced goods
• Mitigate congestion decouple freight-GDP
• Watch for internet effects on new demand for
  freight
• Strengthen Corporate responsibility and carbon
  foot printing and freight
• Increase environmental taxes of freight
  operations from imports?