Risk-based Protocols

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Assessment and Communication of Chemical Risks
IGOR LINKOV ICF Consulting, Inc.,
U.S.A Ilinkov_at_icfconsulting.com
NATO 27 March 2002
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Anatomy of a Terrorist Attack
Terrorist Activities
Parallel Response Activities

• Threat Planning Identification
• Threat Prevention
• Early Detection of Event
• Impact Mitigation

3
RD Prior to Sep 11
Agent Monitoring Methods Validation
Chem/Bio Foam Decontaminant
2001
Chemical Demilitarization
Agent Neutralization System Design/Fabrication
Personal Monitor
1990s
Military Operations in Urban Terrain
Monitoring Labs Design/Fabrication
Alternative Agent Destruction Tech Demo/Validation
1980s
M-55 Rocket Risk Analysis
Historical Focus on Event Detection/ Impact
Mitigation
Demilitarization
1970s
Proprietary Information
4
Conclusion/Message

• Risk of terrorism is a public health issue
• Threat planning identification and prevention
  could result in significant decrease in risks
• Risk assessment can be used as a tool to
  prioritize and focus research
• Spending restricted to specific issues may not be
  useful projects must benefit public health in
  general
• Risk communication and education are among most
  important areas

5
Overview

• Lessons Learned from Chemical Risk Assessment
• Acute risks (chemical plants, infrastructure
  risk)
• Chronic risks (contaminated land)
• Risk communication and stakeholder involvement
• Terrorism New Challenges
• Threat planning identification
• Threat reduction
• Impact mitigation
• Risk communication
• Research Priorities
• International Aspects

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Risk Assessment Formulation
What can happen (go wrong)?
How likely is it?
Kaplan
Garrick
1981
What are the consequences?
Risk Assessment Formulation Works for Bio/Chem
Terrorism
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Applications of Risk AssessmentTypes of
Situations to Which Risk Assessment is Applied
Infrastructure Interruption
Health Safety
Regulatory
Business/ Comemrcial
Environmental
Individualbehaviour
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Risk Assessment Process
Chronic Risks
National Research Council, 1983
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Risks/Hazard Control Options
Scenario Analyses
Risk
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Chronic Persistent Risks

• US EPA Superfund Program
• established in 1980 to locate, investigate, and
  clean up the worst contaminated sites in the USA
• risk assessment is used to help in deciding how
  to clean up sites.
• Community Advisory Group (CAG)
• represents diverse community interests
• provides a public forum for community members to
  present and discuss their needs and concerns
  related to the Superfund decision-making process
• provides local information and assist
  in making better decisions on how to
  clean up a site
• offers EPA a unique opportunity to hearand
  seriously consider community preferences for
  site cleanup and remediation.

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Funding Public Involvement

• Technical Assistance Grant (TAG) program,
  intended to promote public involvement in
  decisions on site-specific cleanup strategies
  under Superfund.

• An initial grant up to 50,000 is available for
  community at any Superfund site that is on the
  EPA's National Priorities List

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Example 1 Former Mining Site,Vermont

• Significant Metal contaminants
• Significant impacts to surface water quality
• Important historical preservation issues

Community Rural low income community Initial
reaction Leave us alone!
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Example 2 Lake in Urban Area, Massachusetts

• Low-level contamination from Army facilities
• Marginal localized impacts to sediment quality

Community Affluent, well educated Initial
reaction You are going to pay for it!
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Communicating Chronic Risks

• Approach to risk communication
• Monthly community meetings
• Quarterly newsletters
• Annual environmental open house
• Results
• Developed trust with community
• Community acceptance of remedial actions at Site
  1
• Advanced risk assessment (including probabilistic
  assessment) at Site 2
• Conclusion Risk communication requires time and
  patience!
• Risk education is very important
• Involvement of technical experts and broad
  community representatives

15
Anatomy of a Terrorist Attack
Terrorist Activities
Parallel Response Activities

• Threat Planning Identification
• Threat Prevention
• Early Detection of Event
• Impact Mitigation

16
Threat Planning Identification

• Homeland Municipal Defense Network
• pilot study to link existing environmental
  monitoring network (soil, air, water) with public
  health/medical networks in a single grid

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Threat Planning Identification Internet Civil
Defense Network

• Concept developed by R. Laporte (University of
  Pittsburgh)
• Trusted Internet networks of friends working
  together on the outlook for bioterrorism related
  precursors.

Estimated 50,000,000 participants in the USA



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Threat Planning Identification

• Research Need Simulation of the System Design
• What is the level of background noise?
• What is the lowest detectable signal?
• How to implement Geospatial analyses and time
  dynamics?
• How to optimize network design to reduce
  false-positive detection rates?

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Risk Education E-Learning

• e-learning, innovative curricula

E-learning approach provides a framework for
flexible customized bioterrorism education.
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Risk Education Example Curriculum for
Agricultural Bioterrorism
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Threat Prevention(Making it Harder to Implement)

• Increased training
• helps First Responders to recognize and respond
  to possible chemical and biological agent
  attacks.
• Tighter control of potential chemical and
  biological threat materials
• both material precursors and active agents are
  being put in place to reduce availability to
  potential terrorists.
• Change in U.S. medical infrastructure
• monitoring, reporting and treatment is being
  expanded and tested to ensure readiness in
  preparation for possible future bioterrorism
  events.

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Threat Prevention Examples

• Food packaging
• Thru-wall sensors
• Unmanned Reconnaissance
• Individual Protection (Clothing)

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Early Detection of Event

• Detection Technologies originally developed for
  the U.S. military are being adapted to civilian
  applications
• CBW Detection in the Washington D.C. subway
  system
• Handheld chemical agent detectors are available
  to first responders
• Near-time Biological Detection is rapidly
  advancing, but is focusing on Detect to Treat
  scenarios, not Detect to Warn, due to the
  delayed impact of the treats.
• The first indication of anthrax in the U.S.
  Senate letters was the medical consequences.

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Early Detection of Event

• Chemical Agent Detectors
• Non-Reagent Based Viral Detection Technology
• Rapid Detection of Bacteriological Agents

Artists Concept of a Portable Virus Detection
Device being developed by ADL
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Impact mitigation

• Technologies originally developed to contain
  Improvised Explosive Devices are being expanded
  to counter Chemical and Biological dispersion
  threats
• Vaccines to counter potential biological threats
  are being fast-tracked to ensure a timely
  response capability
• Several decontaminant products are under
  development to counter civilian chemical and
  biological warfare agent attacks
• ADL CB decontaminant foam
• Sandia decontaminant foam

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Impact mitigation

• foam

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Biological Weapon Production Facilities in the
Former Soviet Union
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Organizations Capable of Producing Bio/Chem
Warfare Agents
Research Objective Database Creation?
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International Risk EducationUse of Internet
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International Risk Education Example Supercourse

• SUPERCOURSE-collection of lectures on prevention,
  shared for free by the best faculty in the world.
  Developed by Dr. LaPorte and the Supercourse team
  (University of Pittsburgh)
• URL www.pitt.edu/super1
• RUSSIAN SUPERCOURSE, collection of lectures in
  Russian, designed to target audience in Russia
  and other countries of former Soviet Union
• Current Status
• 620 lectures
• 5000 faculty members from 120 countries
• SUPERCOURSE on Terrorism?

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Conclusion/Message

• Risk of terrorism is a public health issue
• Threat planning identification and prevention
  could result in significant decrease in risks
• Risk assessment can be used as a tool to
  prioritize and focus research
• Spending restricted to specific issues may not be
  useful projects must benefit public health in
  general
• Risk communication and education are among most
  important areas

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