Plenary Session 3: Information as an Economic Resource: Regional and Global Perspectives

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Plenary Session 3 Information as an Economic
Resource Regional and Global Perspectives

• Statistical information and economic and
  monetary integrationRichard
  MICHELStatistician EconomistConsultantrmichel_at_s
  kynet.be

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Statistical information and economic and
monetary integration

• Economic and monetary integration a process
  requiring an adapted information
• Statistical informationa privileged element of
  adapted information
• Production and availability of statistical
  informationa significant workshop of
  integration process
• ICT contemporary springing upa wide technical
  opportunity to grab
• Conclusion

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Statistical information and economic and monetary
integrationA. Economic and monetary
integration a process requiring an adapted
information

• Today for most countries notably African
  oneseconomic and monetary integration is not a
  choice but a necessity for several (non
  exhaustive) reasons Relevant economic agents
  are becoming bigger and bigger (continent
  countries / multinational companies /
  international institutions/) External shocks
  can compromise years of good governance
  efforts Loan and external (public) debt
  renegotiation capacities remain very weak
  Internal credit and change policies may improve
  with a single/common currency

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Statistical information and economic and monetary
integrationA. Economic and monetary
integration a process requiring an adapted
information

• Effectively  good  economic ad monetary
  integration of several (too) small national
  economies may allow general peace
  reinforcement favourable to better human and
  economic developement , trade intensification
  and increase in political and economic shared
  experiences internal market enlargement
  source of better production profitability
  faster economic growth linked to specialization
  process appearance of complementarities and
  synergies significant development of common
  exchange reserves improving short-term
  external shocks absorption

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Statistical information and economic and monetary
integrationA. Economic and monetary
integration a process requiring an adapted
information

• But economic and monetary integration means
  generally progressive cessions of national
  sovereignty in more or less important
  fields replaced by development of shared
  sovereignty following different ways
  federal, confederal or hybrid
• These sovereignty transfers are politically
  justifiablein a different way considering
  country or concerned field notably it
  depends on history and traditions weight and
  particularly on the fact that independance is
  quite a new situation for many African countries

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Statistical information and economic and monetary
integrationA. Economic and monetary
integration a process requiring an adapted
information

• A self-evident truth is imperative if sovereignty
  transfers are undertaken these soveriegnty
  transfers must be explain in depth using an
  adapted information to political and economic
  decision makers to various stakeholders to
  populations
• A priori this adapted information may cover a
  wide spectrum historical, political and
  cultural approaches geographical and
  environmental approaches economic, demographic
  and social approaches other approaches

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Statistical information and economic and monetary
integrationA. Economic and monetary
integration a process requiring an adapted
information

• All along this economic and monetary integration
  process and not only at the beginning it must
  keep in mind that this requirement for an
  adapted information will remain
• Even if this requirement will be able to evolve
  in its contents and priorities depending on
  shared undertaken projects shared addressed
  issues shared lived experiences
• Because increasing opening to others is a
  fundamental caracteristic of economic and
  integration process and can generate disarray
  impression identity or/and protection loss
  simply abandonment sensation

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Statistical information and economic and monetary
integrationA. Economic and monetary
integration a process requiring an adapted
information

• An adapted information must permanently
  search/aimmaximum of transparency and
  credibility to renew continuously the common
  pact the confidence of political and economic
  decision makers, various stakeholders and
  populations
• Probably condidence is the (one of the) essential
  key(s) for sustainable achievement of economic
  and monetary integration process. Preservation
  and continuons reinforcement of confidence
  atmosphere between partners remains always
  fragile specially at the beginning.
• This challenge is also difficult because partners
  must be choose in the neighborhood generally full
  of historical background.
• Consequently reason must progressively dominate
  emotion to allow all to walk together with open
  eyes.
• Only the reason is sensible to a firmly argued
  adapted information.

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Statistical information and economic and monetary
integration B. Statistical informationa
privileged element of adapted information

• Today information is considered as new economic
  wealth and motive component for development and
  innovationand may be caracterized as
  quantitative or qualitative encyclopaedic or
  factual available or not depending on used
  technologies assimilable or not depending on
  potential users various capacities
• Previously we insisted on the critical  reason 
  role and it is easy to observe that reason is
  more sensible to following information
  specifities quantitative encyclopaedic
  available easily without modification through ITC
  intensive use assimilable with analysis grid
  perfectly opposable to all
• After this enumeration (always possible to
  complete) it appears clearly that (harmonized)
  statistical information occupies a privileged
  position and is able to talk permanently to the
   reason  of all partners

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Statistical information and economic and monetary
integration B. Statistical informationa
privileged element of adapted information

• In our global world everything is matter to
  statistics even opinionsIt is easy to observe
  the behaviour of international financial markets
  always waiting last statistic of the day
  speculing on tomorrow statistics and so on.
• Nevertheless statistical information aims
  permanently to provide likelihood/probability
  acceptable by all whatever is concerned field
  economic social environmental other
• Although this goal is not always reached it
  remains very significant for success of economic
  and monetary integration process. For common
  understanding of economic, social and
  environmental reality statistical information
  allows partners to use the same language
  the same spotting system the same  pilotage 
  help system

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Statistical information and economic and monetary
integration B. Statistical informationa
privileged element of adapted information

• Effectively statistical information is
  particularly relevant to keep memory of past
  economic and monetary facts (using harmonized
  and comparable timeseries) to inform precisely
  on present economic and monetary situation
  (using harmonized and comparable short-term
  indicators) to contribute to explore economic
  and monetary future prospects (using
  harmonized economic forecasting and models)
• For all partners to the same integration process
  all these elements converge to forge common
  economic past to analyse the present economic
  situation with the same scale to debate
  together about common economic future taking
  into account the same well-established (data)
  basis

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Statistical information and economic and monetary
integration B. Statistical informationa
privileged element of adapted information

• European Union case Present EU is the result
  of more than 50 years economic and monetary
  integration process aiming in 2009 more political
  integration through European Constitutional
  Treaty (ECT) proposal (2nd ROME Treaty).
• Until 2006 end 25 Member States (MS) are
  ratifying ECT through national Parliament vote
  or ad national referendum.
• Just to remember this integration process
  followed several main steps Coal and Steel
  European Community (CSEC) in 1951 (1st) ROME
  Treaty and Euratom Treaty in 1957 and common
  market birth Single Act (merging of 3 EC) in
  1986 and big market creation MAASTRICHT Treaty
  in 1992 aiming Euro creation (in 1999)
  AMSTERDAM Treaty in 1997 and adoption of
  Stability Pact NICE Treaty i 2000 to prepare
  the big enlargement to 25 MS (May 2004)

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Statistical information and economic and monetary
integration B. Statistical informationa
privileged element of adapted information

• All along this integration process and under
  Eurostat direction (50 years anniversary in
  2003) harmonized statistical information was
  considerably developped in parallel.
• This development was able to inform all driven
  policies in new shared fields at EU level and to
  offer also comparable statistical information for
  most domains remaining essentially under MS
  responsabilities like education
  professional training employment social
  protection health
• Chronologically harmonized statistical
  information concernedsteel-making / agriculture
  / external trade / transports / industry in
  generalthen environment and progressively all
  statistical fields likebalance of payments /
  services notably those linked to  new economy 

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Statistical information and economic and monetary
integration B. Statistical informationa
privileged element of adapted information

• During 90 years the adoption of EU General
  Budget 4th resource based on MS-GNP reinforced
  considerably mutual validation work of MS
  national accounts aggregates (Peers GNP
  committee) by control of application of NA
  recommendations filled in new European System
  of Accounts (ESA95) linked to SNA93.
• In particular mutual GDP validation served and
  serves to assess the respect of Stability Pact
  criteria in public finance matters.
• At the request of new European Central Bank (ECB)
  based in Francfort, in charge of Euro management
  and inflation monitoring in Eurozone, a very
  strong pressure was practised and always
  practises on Eurostat and MS-statistical bodies
  or central banks
• To improve continuously its reactivity on
  Eurozone monetary market and international
  exchange markets ECB pressure searches
  permanently to obtain quickly and regularly
  increasing number of economic, financial and
  monetary short-term indicators of course
  relevant, accurate, reliable and updated

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Statistical information and economic and monetary
integration B. Statistical informationa
privileged element of adapted information

• More recently significant political economic
  debates were about strict respect of Stability
  Pact criteria (3 public deficit ratio and 60
  public debt ratio towards GDP).
• These finance public criteria are the
  counterparts of monetary criteria (Eurozone
  inflation rythm less than 2) managed by ECB.
• EU Commission and MS discussions arrived recently
  (March 2005) to a new Stability Pact compromise
  taking into account permanent budgetary
  difficulties in biggest MS (Germany, France and
  Italy) linked to persistent weakness in Eurozone
  economic growth.
• In the budgetary field harmonized statistical
  information play a key role as many polemics
  emerged about respect of compilation
  methodologies for the entry of some MS in
  Eurozone after entry regarding figures needed
  for Stability Pact criteria calculations

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Statistical information and economic and monetary
integration B. Statistical informationa
privileged element of adapted information

• Previously harmonized external trade statistics
  were obliged to evolveto take into account the
  disappearance of EU internal trade borders.
• This evolution was at the creation of two
  different systems to observe EU external
  trade EXTRASTAT for external trade between MS
  and non-MS with a quite traditional system of
  observation INTRASTAT for internal trade
  between MS with a total new system of trade
  observation
• All this considerable progressive harmonization
  work of a wider field of statistics required and
  requires big  all together  organization.
• This organization takes the aspect of pluriannual
  statistical programmes technically prepared by
  Eurostat and MS-NSI/NSO under EU Commission
  member responsible for economic and monetary
  affairs politically arbitrated by EU Council
  representing MS and European Parliament
  representing EU citizens

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Statistical information and economic and monetary
integration B. Statistical informationa
privileged element of adapted information

• West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA)
  caseborn in 1994 young UEMOA is also firmly
  engaged with its 8 MS in an economic and
  monetary integration process.
• Its situation is a little bit different than EU
  one because monetary integration is already
  achieved fixed parity existed between FCFA
  and FF between 1994 and 1998 fixed parity (1
  Euro 655.957 FCFA) exists now between FCFA and
  Euro
• Fixed parity existence may be observed in two
  points of view in one hand it is a stability
  factor giving confidence to external investors
  and local economic agents by exchange risk
  elimination in another hand the subregional
  central bank (BCEAO based in Dakar) is
  deprived of exchange rate tool and is obliged to
  defend this fixed parity with other
  financial and monetary tools compromising
  sometimes subregional economy optimal
  financing

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Statistical information and economic and monetary
integration B. Statistical informationa
privileged element of adapted information

• Considering this monetary situation integration
  process must continue in depth taking into
  account the fact that national economies are more
  often competing rather than complementary due to
  insufficient development and weak
  diversification of respective production
  systems.
• It appears clearly that available harmonized
  statistical information concerns more financial
  and monetary fields and less economic area.
• Though since several years UEMOA Commission based
  in Ouagadougouundertook harmonized statistical
  information subregional workshop in the framework
  of multilateral monitoring exercise proceeding
  from UEMOA Treaty with external financial support
  notably EU funds.
• Some appreciable improvements in several
  statistical fields are observed public
  finances (harmonized State Financial Operations
  Tables or TOFE) harmonized consumption price
  index (IHPC) harmonized statistical knowledge
  of urban informal sector better comparability
  of national GDP and main NA aggregates
• Nevertheless many statistical fiels must improve
  their comparabilityto be able to inform
  correctly decision makers and develop win-win
  strategies

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Statistical information and economic and monetary
integration C. Production and availability of
statistical informationa significant workshop
of integration process

• To produce and deliver to decision-makers useful
  and relevant harmonized statistical information
  it is not enough to prepare questionnaires
  to realize surveys to achieve data treatments
  to disseminate results more generally to
  respect traditional compilation process of
  statistics
• Effectively it is absolutely necessary to prepare
  harmonized statistical work up stream and hope
  to reach researched results by harmonization of
  concepts and definitions classifications
  survey methodologies (if necessary for complex
  measures) data (and metadata) transmission
  storage and access protocols
• In fact all these up stream obscure preparation
  efforts participate also to integration process
  itself and must receive strong support of
  decision-makersto reveal their permanent and
  genuine involvment to commom implementation.
• (In french version some examples of interesting
  pratices or behaviors are presented for EU case
  or WAEMU (UEMOA) case. It must be mentioned for
  WAEMU the strong methodological support received
  from AFRISTAT Observatory based in Bamako.)

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Statistical information and economic and monetary
integration C. Production and availability of
statistical informationa significant workshop
of integration process

• Regarding methodological crisis impact on
  integration process
• During integration process it is possible to
  observe that one MS is not respecting knowingly
  (or not) same harmonized tools than other MS.
• This report must conduct to a clarification
  concerning MS behaviour is it due to
  methodological misunderstanding ? is it due to
  methodological application error ? is it due to
  more or less deliberate attempt of performances
  falsification ?
• For two first reasons there is a trouble but it
  is generally possible to repare harmonized
  statistical information without severe dammage.
• For the third reason it is totally different
  because this MS deviant behaviourcorresponds to
  a rupture of MS mutual confidence pact
  threatening integration process itself.
•  Methodological  crisis may appear aiming to
  propose procedures clarificationand if necessary
  revision of performance criteria definition to
  take into account inadequate methodological
  recommendation for concerned MS encounting
  specific situation not enough anticipated by all
  MS and Commission.

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Statistical information and economic and monetary
integrationD. ICT contemporary springing upa
wide technical opportunity to grab

• Concerning poor countries ICT contribution to
  development is discusseddue to ICT
  infrastructures costs and ICT good technical
  skills. It is debate for information society
  theme but not particularly relevant here.
• Harmonized statistical information required for
  economic and monetary integration process it is
  quite clear that we have on one side
  corresponding to data production and
  dissemination well trained and professional
  staff is perfectly able to manage ICT
  constraints and has opportunity to improve ICT
  skills during in-service training sessions on
  another side corresponding to data use by
  decision-makers ICT skills are not at the
  same level and harmonized statistical
  information must be presented in a very
  accessible/user-friendly way without economic
  nonsens risk or fallacious interpretation.
• More ICT accelerate technical exchange and favour
  transparency between national statistics
  producers. ICT may allow quicker adoption of
  harmonized tools and reduce the number of
  face-to-face technical meetings. These last ones
  always expansive, tiring and time consuming may
  be only organized for remaining questions
  concerning definitive validation of harmonized
  tools.
• Finally ICT may facilitate easily and cheap
  access shared archives to structure the
  (sub)regional memory of harmonized statistical
  information.

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Statistical information and economic and monetary
integrationE. Conclusion

• Through harmonized statistical information in
  regular improvement the African (sub)regions
  must be able to take totally advantage from ICT
  contemporary springing up to win the
  contemporary challenge of economic and monetary
  integration probably the only one able to
  increase their weight and their influencein a
  globalized world crowded by big powerful and
  well informed economic actors.