Greater Phoenix 2100: Building a National Urban Environmental Research Agenda

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Greater Phoenix 2100 Building a National Urban
Environmental Research Agenda
Jonathan Fink Vice Provost for Research Arizona
State University
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Greater Phoenix 2100

• What kind of Phoenix do we want in 2100?
• How do we describe Phoenix today?
• How do we characterize explosive growth?
• What tools can help forecast our future?
• Can science help answer these questions?

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Whats being done nationally?

• Los Alamos Labs Urban Security Project
• USGS Urban Dynamics Project
• NSF Urban Research Initiative
• Various university institutes
• State/regional smart growth initiatives
• Few Coordinated Activities

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Plume dispersion over N. Dallas modeled with
HOTMAC-RAPTAD-GASFLOW system
Los Alamos Lab Urban Security Initiative
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U.S. urban growth 1975-1995
USGS Urban Dynamics Research Program
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Whats missing?

• Coordinated Federal effort
• Federal/state/private/academic collaborations
• Linkage of social, biological, physical
• Scientific foundation for growth debates
• Tools for forecasting impact of growth

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NSF Central Arizona Phoenix Long-Term
Ecological Research

• Decade-scale monitoring project
• 48 co-investigators from 14 departments
• ASU partners with State, cities, federal labs
• Complement to Baltimore LTER
• Ideal platform for urban modeling/analysis

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CAP is one of two urban LTERs
Baltimore
Phoenix
old city slower growth humid flat activist
politics
young city rapid growth arid rugged libertarian
politics
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CAP LTER Objectives

• Test ecological theory in urban settings
• Better understanding of ecology of cities
• Relate ecological and sociological factors
• Archive large body of scientific data
• Engage public (K-12) in scientific discovery
• Spin off additional research opportunities

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LTER-related research projectsat ASU (most gt
300K/year)

• Urban airshed modeling (DOE, ADOT)
• Remote sensing of 100 cities (NASA)
• Urban CO2 island (NSF-URI)
• Urban ecology grad. program (IGERT-NSF)
• SW Center for Env. Res. Policy (EPA)
• Center for sustainable water reuse (EPA)
• SUPERPAVE (US DOT)
• Benign semiconductor manufacturing (NSF)

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Why study Phoenix?

• Geographically delimited
• Resource constrained (water, power)
• Relatively simple boundary conditions
• Change is very rapid (An acre an hour)
• Fastest growing county in U.S.
• Second fastest growing fifth largest city
• Typical of arid urban west
• High tech jobs, little mass transit, cheap land

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What are the boundary conditions for modeling
Phoenix?

• Spatial city strictly limited by infrastructure
• Population well documented, rapid growth
• Cultural built along Hohokam canals (AD 1000)
• Topography/Geology Basin and Range
• Water canals, reservoirs, streams, groundwater
• Air eastward flow, CO2 dome, brown cloud
• Land Use desert agriculture urban
• Economy mining/agriculture high tech/tourism

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Urban fringe sharply defined
Photo courtesy of Ramon Arrowsmith
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Maricopa County land use
1912
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Maricopa County land use
1934
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Maricopa County land use
1955
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Maricopa County land use
1975
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Maricopa County land use
1995
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Remote sensing used for urban resource management
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HOUSING
HEALTH
POWER
HUD
NIEHS
WATER
URBAN SECURITY
DOE
ADHS
APS
SRP
USGS
DOD
Motorola
ASU
ADWR
EPA
Intel
AIR
MANU- FACTURING
Phoenix
DOC
ADEQ
ADOC
NSF
NOAA
ADOT
Biosphere
DOT
MAG
CLIMATE
ADOA
Lincoln Institute
NASA
TRANSPORTATION
USFS
BLM
USDA
FORESTS
Greater Phoenix 2100
LAND USE
AGRICULTURE
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Greater Phoenix 2100 Targets

• Physical Environment
• Air (ADEQ) (EPA)
• Water (ADWR, ADEQ) (EPA, USGS)
• Climate (Biosphere) (NOAA)
• Forests (ADOA) (USFS)
• Agriculture (ADOA) (USDA)
• Social Environment
• Health (ADHS) (NIH)
• Housing (ADOC) (HUD)
• Education (AZ DOEd) (USDOEd)
• Infrastructure
• Land Use (ASLD, Lincoln) (DOI)
• Power (APS, SRP) (DOE)
• Transportation (ADOT, MAG) (USDOT)
• Manufacturing (Intel, Motorola) (US DOC)
• Urban Security (LANL, DARPA, Nat Grd)

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Greater Phoenix 2100Which Phoenix do we want?

• Coordinate federal/state/academic efforts
• Link with similar studies of other cities
• Answer questions people care about
• Provide objective information
• Build state-of-the-art forecasting tools
• Start of urban-LTER network across USA