SAVE%20OUR%20SNOW

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SAVE OUR SNOW
Brian Lazar Stratus Consulting Mark
Williams CU-Boulder NWT LTER
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Study Approach
MAGICC/SCENGEN Statistical downscaling
Dynamic downscaling
GCMs RCMs
SRM Snow depth - SNTHRM
ADAPTATION SCENARIOS
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Rising CO2 Will Lead to Accelerated Rise in Air
Temperature
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5 x 5 Grid Boxes Near Park City

• 300 miles on a side
• RCM box 20 miles on a side

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Model vs. Observed Current (2000) Temperatures

• C

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Annual Climate Changes in 2030 Business as Usual
CO2 Scenario

• All GCMs show warming of 3-4F
• Little variability in temperature
• Higher variability in precipitation
• GCM average precipitation decreases by 7

Air Temp
C
Precip
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Potential Climate Changes in 2100Business as
Usual CO2 Scenario

• More warming All GCMs show warming of 9.5 to
  11.2F
• Continued variability in precipitation

Precip
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(No Transcript)
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Study Approach
MAGICC/SCENGEN Statistical downscaling
Dynamic downscaling
GCMs RCMs
SRM Snow depth - SNTHRM
ADAPTATION SCENARIOS
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Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) A
Temperature-Index Model

• Estimates timing, duration, and amount of
  snowcover, as well as summer discharge
• Can answer questions such as
• Will the start of ski season change?
• Will the duration of ski season change?
• What will be the average change in snow depth?
• Will there be enough summer flow for rafting?

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Model Domain and Elevation Zones
Example Aspen area

• Model domain sliced up into elevation zones
• Each zone spans 250 vertical m

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Snow Covered Area

• Calibrated to 2000 year
• Monthly Landsat images
• Snow Covered Area (SCA) related to snow depth
• Developed for each elevation zone

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Park City Snow Depth Ski AreaBase 2030
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Park City Snow Depth Ski Area Base 2100
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Park City Snow Depth Top of Ski Area 2100
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Park City Top of Mountain 2075

• Regional and General Circulation Model

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ADAPTATION UPWARD SNOWLINE
ASPEN
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ADAPTATION UPWARD SNOWLINE
ASPEN
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ADAPTATION UPWARD SNOWLINE
ASPEN
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ADAPTATION SNOW-MAKING
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ADAPTATION SNOW-MAKING
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ADAPTATION SNOW-MAKING
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Snake River at Keystone 0.57 cms-mo
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ADAPTATION BUSINESS MODEL

• Ski areas economic drivers for region
• Adaptations to climate change expensive
• Ski areas may lose profitability
• SOLUTION adapt European model
• Local governments subsidize ski areas

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How Much Difference Can We Make?

• Our carbon emissions will affect how much climate
  and snowpack will change
• The more we control emissions, the more snow we
  will have