Net%20Energy%20?%20Next%20Energy%20China%20Renewable%20Energy%20Trade%20Mission%202006%20by%20Ron%20Swenson

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Net Energy ? Next EnergyChina Renewable Energy
Trade Mission 2006by Ron Swenson
www.SolarQuest.com/Workshops/China
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Global Warming over the Past Millennium
Very rapidly we have entered uncharted territory
Over the 20th century, energy consumption
increased sixteenfold. Global warming from the
fossil fuel greenhouse became a major, and
increasingly dominant, factor in climate change.
Slide from Marty Hoffert NYU (see Smalley)
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Oil is going to decline

• but whats coming up?

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Swenson Curve

• To avoid deprivation, humanity must match
  depletion with conservation and enduring
  substitution.

www.HubbertPeak.com/Swenson
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Consequences of Delayed Energy Investment
Net Energy Production
begin investment before decline
Begin investment during decline
www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil
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Global Solar Energy Balance
Solar Energy Input (TeraWatts) 178,000
Reflected to Space Immediately 53,000
Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat 82,000
Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) 40,000
Captured by Plant Photosynthesis 100
Total Energy Used by Human Society 13
Total Energy Used by US Society 2.5
Total Human Food Energy 0.6
www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm
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Thermodynamics of Coal

• Plus
• Greenhouse gases
• Ravaged land
• Water contamination
• People displaced
• Extraction uses oil

1 BOE
EROI  9?27 electric quality
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Thermodynamics of Oil

• It depends
• Pennsylvania?
• Saudi Arabia?
• Off-shore?
• Plus
• Ravaged land/oceans
• Greenhouse gases
• Water contamination

EROI  10
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Thermodynamics of Nuclear

• Plus
• Depletion
• Low grade ores ? Greenhouse gases to process
• Waste guard for 10,000 years

How do we value a 1,000 year wasteland?
EROI  4? 12 electric
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Thermodynamics of Tar Sands

• Plus
• Greenhouse gases
• Ravaged land
• Water contamination
• Extraction uses natural gas

Is it worth the trouble?!
EROI  2 or 3
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Thermodynamics of Hydrogen

• Am I missing something?!

EROI  -½
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Consequences of Making the Wrong Choice
Net Energy Production
Moving fast with good solutions
Making the wrong choices
www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil
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Thomas Edison

• I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy.
  What a source of power! I hope we don't have to
  wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle
  that.
• (1847-1931)

www.ThomasEdison.com
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Thermodynamics of PV

• EROI 5 years
• Life 50 years

• Plus it can be bootstrapped

EROI  10?30 electric
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Thermodynamics of Thin Film PV

• EROI 6 months
• Life 20 years

EROI  40?120 electric
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? Next Energy
www.HubbertPeak.com/ASPO-USA
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Since oil is big in the transportation sector

• a short history lesson.
• How did transportation transform?
• from solid fuels (hay and then coal) to
• liquid fuels (oil)
• And where do we go from here?

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Lest we forget They did bring coal to Newcastle.
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If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
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No joke!
The original buggy whip protest
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The Horseless Carriage
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From GridLock to Gas Lines
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Corn Cars Bean Buses?
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Back to solid fuels?
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The All-New DonCar!
www.HubbertPeak.com/Transport
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ERoEI(field) gtgt ERoEI(solid, liquid, gas)
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Electricity. Not exactly a new idea
and it is ephemeral, like solar power.
Lift?
See?
Touch?
A match made in heaven.
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The Electric Rail
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Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)
www.ecotopia.com/ST
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Fuels (solid/liquid/gas) will still have a place

• EROI of biofuels too low for urban transport
• (not to mention smog, congestion, hazard)
• Fuels will remain essential for
• Airplanes
• Ships at sea -- with wind power augmentation
  (KiteTugs)
• Agriculture
• But Solar Is the Key to our Transportation Future!

www.ecotopia.com/ST
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• If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
  serious unemployment will result. Captains,
  cooks, drivers, repairment, and lock tenders will
  be left without means of livelihood, not to
  mention the numerous farmers now employed in
  growing hay for horses.
• Boat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and
  harness makers would be left destitute.
• Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April
  1832.

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Energy Revolution (Terawatt Challenge)
14.5 Terawatts220 M BOE/day
30 -- 60 Terawatts 450 900 MBOE/day
The Basis of Prosperity 20st Century Oil
21st Century Renewables
www.HubbertPeak.com/Smalley
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PV The Growth Industry
Oil declines at 4/yr PV increases at 50/yr
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The conclusions are simple

• We are not doing enough fast enough.
• To spend our depleting energy capital resources
  effectively, we must first understand the
  Thermodynamics (ERoEI) of the alternatives.
• Then we must act quickly with resolve.

Economics or Thermodynamics Which will it be?
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Colin Campbell

• Photovoltaics will be economic when there
  is serious production.
• 1996

www.HubbertPeak.com/Campbell
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Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil?

• Yes!
• Think TeraWatts

www.solarquest.com/Workshops/China
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• If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
  serious unemployment will result. Captains,
  cooks, drivers, repairment, and lock tenders will
  be left without means of livelihood, not to
  mention the numerous farmers now employed in
  growing hay for horses.
• Boat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and
  harness makers would be left destitute.
• Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April
  1832.