RAFT rationale

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Assessing Trade Development Needs and Integrating
them into the Design of Development Strategies
Experiences from East and Southern
Africa Symposium on Evaluation Identifying
Indicators for Monitoring Aid for Trade WTO,
Geneva 15-16 September 2008 Mark Pearson RTFP
Programme Director
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Poverty Alleviation through Economic Growth
Increased levels of Trade
Domestic Fiscal Policies
Financial Policies

• Market Access
• DFQFMA for LDCs
• Improved Rules of Origin
• Preference Margins
• etc

• Removal of Production and Competitive
  Constraints
• Aid for Trade
• Foreign Direct Investment
• Regulatory Environment
• etc

3
Aid for Trade

• Trade Policy and Regulation
• Trade facilitation and regulation
• TA/CB
• RTAs/FTAs/CU

• Building Productive Capacity
• Expansion of productive base
• Level of investment

• Trade Related Adjustment
• changes in structure of trade

• Trade Related Infrastructure
• transit/transport
• Energy
• ICT

• Trade Development
• Trade Facilitation
• Investment Promotion
• Trade Financing,

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What to Monitor and Evaluate at the Programme or
Project Level? Sequencing It is not enough to
monitor spending, or rates of return or
efficiency gains on individual projects there
is a need to monitor the sequencing of
interventions.
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Lack of rolling stock and poor management on
TAZARA - delays in transport One train load of
copper cathods is valued at about US10.5m (50
tonnes per wagon, US7,000/t, 30 wagons in a
train). Lost income at 8 pa interest is about
US16,000/week/train.
6
Container terminal congestion at Dar es Salaam.
Improved efficiencies on the road/rail transport
network will add to this bottleneck
7
SENA line from Moatize (estimated deposit of 2.4
billion tonnes of coal) to Beira upgraded to
transport coal but Beira port needs dredging and
line into Malawi not repaired
8
Improving customs procedures at Kasumbalesa ON
ITS OWN will not reduce transport times and costs
to an from Kolwezi approximately 100 loaded
trucks a day go south and 300 loaded trucks a day
go north.
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The absolute Importance of Correct Sequencing
Ring Road US1m/km
One-Stop Border Post buildings, computers, etc
US10m
Start of journey
Toll Bridge US3m
OSBP
Road construction US1m/km
Port Upgrade Dredging, New container terminal,
management system. US30m
Road rehabilitation 50mm surface overlay
US750,000/km
Trade Facilitation and Trade Regulation Measures
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The absolute Importance of Correct Sequencing
Ring Road US1m/km
One-Stop Border Post buildings, computers, etc
US10m
Start of journey
Toll Bridge US3m
OSBP
Port Upgrade Dredging, New container terminal,
management system. US30m
ROAD NOT FIXED NO WAY TO PORT
Road rehabilitation 50mm surface overlay
US750,000/km
Trade Facilitation and Trade Regulation Measures
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What to Monitor and Evaluate at the Programme or
Project Level? Inter-Relations What effects
improvements in one sector have on another for
example, deregulation of the road sector without
an effective regulatory environment and
equivalent deregulation on the railways will not
lead to more efficient transport and transit
networks in the medium to longer term. The
regional axle load limit is one of the highest in
the world (56t for 7 axle rig) and overloading
makes road transporters more competitive and
profitable. Road transport accounts for almost
all transport even bulk transport of
concentrates, fuel, sulphuric acid, etc.
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Programme-level Monitoring and Evaluation
Aid Effectiveness Amounts disbursed by AfT category by Donor by procedure (are there adequate regional mechanisms in place for disbursement?)
Trade Policy and Regulation Effects of trade facilitation and trade regulation measures on reduced journey times and transport prices Level of increases in TA/CB Increases in implementation of FTAs, RTAs, customs unions.
Trade Development Measuring changes in investment promotion, trade financing, export business support services, institutional support to exporters.
Building Productive Capacity Changes in the productive base of the economy broadening of production. Levels of investment
Trade Related Infrastructure Sequencing of trade related infrastructure interventions Rates of return on investments in transit/transport corridor infrastructure upgrades, energy infrastructure, ICT, etc
Trade Related Adjustment Changes in the structure of trade measurement of diversification Changes in levels of Trade in Services
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• Way Forward
• Identification of projects and programmes that
  are necessary to make the N-S corridor more
  efficient with the aim of reducing costs and so
  allowing producers to be more efficient.
• Calculate costs of projects and returns on
  investment.
• Prepare a funding strategy for each project and
  programme (ring-fence using SPVs) so that they
  can be implemented in a sequenced manner.
• Hold a Aid for Trade session in first quarter
  of 2009 to get funding of each project/programme.
• Roll out to other corridors.

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Thank You Regional Trade Facilitation
Programme (DFID) PO Box 317 Persequor
Park Pretoria 0020 South Africa www.rtfp.org mpea
rson_at_rtfp.org