Some bumps on the road ahead Nils Larsson Executive Director, iiSBE, the International Initiative fo

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Some bumps on the road aheadNils
LarssonExecutive Director, iiSBE, the
International Initiative for a Sustainable Built
EnvironmentDunedinNovember, 2007
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iiSBE at a glance

• An international non-profit organization
• Focus on guiding the international construction
  industry towards sustainable building practices
• Emphasis is on research and policy, with a
  special emphasis on information dissemination,
  building performance and its assessment
• Board members from 16 countries
• Secretariat is in Ottawa (soon moving to Europe)
• Local chapters exist in Italy, Spain, Czech
  Republic and Portugal, others are being formed in
  Poland, France, Malaysia, Taiwan, and associated
  organizations exist in Mexico and Brazil
• Andrea Moro is President, Nils Larsson is XD
• No paid staff, very active network

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Future context for the construction industry

• Climate change effects - temperatures,
  precipitation and more
• Depletion of water resources in some regions
• Increasing scarcity and cost of oil gas
• Scarcity and cost of some building materials, and
  the need to develop new alternatives
• Scarcity of land for new development
• Reversing the ecological damage of past
  development
• Dealing with vagaries of government policies
• Taking into account the dysfunctional structure
  of the construction industry
• Taking into account the particular nature of
  buildings and their occupants

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Future context for the construction industry

• Need for more renovation activity and improved
  performance of renovated buildings
• Achieving new energy efficiency and green
  performance requirements
• Getting the market to accept less extravagant
  houses
• Building new developments at densities high
  enough to make public transport and other
  services viable
• Increasing the densities of existing suburbs
• Producing large volumes of extremely low-cost
  housing and associated infrastructure in
  developing countries

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Climate change issues
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SourceWRI
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Per capita CO2 emissions at the regional level in
2003
2050?
2020?
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Source IPCC
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Predicted climate change impacts from IPCC 2007
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Predicted climate change impacts in ANZ from
IPCC 4th Report, November, 2007
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CBC
Deep-freeze pizza facility in Germany after storm
of Jan. 18
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Note that economic damage greatly exceeds insured
coverage.
Source IPCC 2000
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We have seen some of the impacts of climate
change on the building sector.But there will
also be other issues facing us.
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Possible context during the next century

• Energy prices will probably be high, with most
  analysts predicting long-term prices above 60
  per barrel for oil (currently at 90)
• There may be a scarcity of affordable natural gas
  in some areas due to declining production from
  easily accessible fields
• The global production of oil may be close to peak
  or already past it
• This diminution of fossil fuel supplies will have
  immense effects, only some of which can be
  foreseen clearly
• Certainly, fuel-dependent transportation will
  become very expensive, and so will the
  construction and operation of buildings

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Demand from China, India, Brazil and SE Asia
A global forecast for all oil and gas
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IEA has an optimistic scenario for the growth of
renewables and gains in efficiency
Primary energy - global scenario
Future Buildings Forum, IEA
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Resource consumption

• The construction sector is a major user of
  resources, including metals, wood, plastics, and
  the constituent materials for cement, masonry and
  .
• The production process for building materials
  require large amounts of energy and water, which
  feeds back into the central problem
• The Club of Rome report was hasty in predicting
  shortages of resources, but in principle they
  were correct and there are clear signs that the
  increasing difficulty of extracting smaller
  amounts of some resources is now having an
  impact
• And then consider the rate of growth in China,
  India and Brazil.

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Growth in the construction sector of China,
Brazil and India is high, and is likely to remain
so for many years
Davis Langdon, World Construction Review 2005
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Consumption of a range of industrial materials in
Western Europe and USA is much more than in the
rest of the world what happens when India and
China join the party?
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Wastes

• The construction sector is responsible for 30 to
  40 of municipal wastes
• Materials taken to the dump means that new
  materials must be produced, with associated
  energy and emissions
• Throwing things away does not work, because there
  is no away
• The goal must be zero waste.

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Reduction of C D wastes in the Netherlands
Percent

• Important elements
• Taxes on landfill since 1996
• Ban on landfill partial since 1997, total since
  2001
• Obligation to sort C D waste
• Building materials decree (2001) - all materials
  certified regarding leaching, proper use,
  obligation to take back after use etc.

Info courtesy of Ronald Rovers
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Retrofit to adapt buildings and relocation to
meet climate change conditions
Issues at mid-century
New construction related to inflow of climate
refugees
Reduced availability and higher cost of
conventional fuels and materials
The Construction Sector
Construction work required to replace ageing
infrastructure
Demand for higher service levels in developing
and developed countries
Need to address housing and service needs in
developing countries
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Energy efficiency v. demand and service levels

• Energy efficiency in operations is clearly a top
  priority in view of its central role in reducing
  GHGs
• However, consider the impacts of the following
• Construction undertaken for new airports and
  roads, future Olympics and World Expo events
• Buildings that are fully air-conditioned in even
  moderate climates
• Second and third homes
• Single family houses that are efficient but have
  areas of 500 m2 or more
• The proliferation of types and numbers of
  household appliances in even middle-class homes
• In such cases, energy efficiency is not enough,
  and we must reduce the level of demand and
  expectations of service levels
• But a reduction in demand or service levels is
  much harder to achieve than efficiency
  improvements, since it requires changes in values
  and lifestyles
• This will be the main issue to address during the
  next decades.

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Amount of space required to transport the same
number of passengers by car, bus or bicycle
Source poster in City of Muenster planning
office, 2001
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Conclusions

• Energy efficiency and Greenhouse gas emissions
  are core factors, but more than operating energy
  is involved
• Other key issues include water and resource
  scarcity
• There are many obstacles to rapid take-up of new
  ideas in the building sector
• Success will require action on a broad front,
  taking into account varying regional needs and
  preferences
• Great advances in environmental efficiency can be
  expected, but it is not so clear that we will see
  the changes of lifestyles and values required to
  reduce the production volume of buildings and
  equipment or to reduce service quality
  expectations..
• If we are to successfully manage the impacts of
  climate change we must act immediately!

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Contacts Info

• http//www.iisbe.org
• http//www.sbis.info
• Nils Larsson, larsson_at_iisbe.org