WWRP/NWG-COST 722

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WWRP Nowcasting Working Group Contributors T.
Keenan (BMRC), Stéphane Sénési (Météo -France),
Shingo Yamada (JMA), Jim Wilson (NCAR), Paul Joe
(MSC), Jarmo Koistinen (FMI), Peter Li (HKO),
Augusto Pereira (USP), Andrew Crook (NCAR), Chris
Collier (U. Salford) and Isztar Zawadzki (McGill
U.)

• Background
• Objectives
• Overall Strategy
• Work plan

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Background

• Propose a plan for promoting and advancing
  nowcasting within the WWRP.
• An outcome of the 6th WWRP SSC recommendation

Definition Follow that provided by Conway
(1998) nowcasting is forecasting with local
detail, by any method, over a period from the
present to a few hours ahead this includes a
detailed description of the present weather.
Nowcasting is now expanded to include the
blending of extrapolation techniques, statistical
techniques, heuristic1 techniques and numerical
weather prediction (NWP). In the foreseeable
future it is most likely that it will be possible
to make deterministic and probabilistic nowcasts
for end-users of the 0-6h time period with
sufficient time and space specificity to
effectively mitigate losses or enhance benefits.
1 Heuristic is defined as forecast rules
based on such things as experiment, numerical
simulation, theory, expert systems, fuzzy logic
and forecaster rules of thumb.
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• A review of conferences and research efforts
  indicates there is a relative lack of
  international focus on nowcasting programs
• Lack of coordinated research with established
  verification and optimization of information
  interchange between researchers, forecasters and
  end-users.
• Limiting the transfer of nowcasting capabilities
  to the operational sphere.
• Improvement in nowcasting services has
  significant social and economic benefits.
• WWRP Role?.
• Include research into basic understanding,
  defining of limits of predictability, a
  collaborative and systematic approach to the
  nowcasting process, interaction with the user
  base, and relevant social impact studies.

•  
• The objectives of the proposed WWRP Nowcasting
  Working Group (NWG) are
•  
• To advance the science of nowcasting, including
  meteorology processes and predictability.
• To promote, and aid the implementation of
  nowcasting in the WWRP framework and within
  National Meteorological Services and their end
  users.

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Extrapolation
Forecast rules e.q boundary collision storm
initiation likely
Forecaster Input e.q. convergence
line Input, meteorological situation
Courtesy, Jim Wilson NCAR
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• Important nowcasting applications and end uses
  include
•  
• Transport weather including aviation, rail and
  road
• Emergency Services including Law and Order
  Agencies
• Hydrology
• Agriculture industry
• Construction Industry
• Recreational Activities
• Power industry
• Local authorities monitoring air pollution
• Air quality and particle dispersion
• Homeland security

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Aviation Impact of Convective Weather
Courtesy, Jim Wilson NCAR
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Stages of disaster prevention activities and
relevant weather information
Met. Information
Nowcast (Anal) gtwarning
VSRF (AnalNWP) gtcaution
SRF(NWP) gtOutlook
Cancel warning
Local Government
Action for disaster prevention
Action for recovery
Ready to take action
Stand by
Back to normal (recovery)
Citizen
Keep in mind
evacuation
preparation
1-2 days before
1 hour before
3-6 hours before
Is the skill of our forecast fulfilling their
needs?
disaster (Flood/Landslide)
Precip. Intensity
Courtesy, Shingo Yamada JMA
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• Promote nowcasting science (RDP), transfer of
  technology and science through Forecast
  Demonstration Projects (FDP) and assist in the
  development of nowcast test beds.
• Organization of international nowcasting
  conferences and specialist symposia, training
  workshops and collaboration with WMO and CBS
• Inter comparison and systematic testing of these
  algorithms on common and representative databases
  (including consideration of extreme and high
  impact events) would provide valuable assessment
  and help define optimal paths for development.
• A tendency exists within National Meteorological
  Services (NMSs) to develop nowcasting
  capabilities in isolation

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Symposia

• No major international conference with a specific
  nowcasting focus since the 1984 Nowcasting 2
  Symposium in Norrkoping, Sweden.
• Nowcasting science and applications are scattered
  in sessions of related theme conferences
• Initial major conference aimed at
• (1) a review of the science and recommendations
  on the way to advance the science, and
• (2) plans for a series of symposia concentrating
  on the specific science and system issues and the
  way they can be incorporated into RDP, FDP and
  testbed activities.
• Possible Technical Symposia
• Analysis and conceptual models
• Nowcasting algorithms
• Blending NWP with other techniques
• Consistent time integration of nowcast and other
  forecast products
• Quality assurance for nowcasting data
• Alerting, nowcast production systems,
  dissemination processes and systems and end user
  interface
• Man-machine interfaces and the role of a
  meteorologist in the nowcasting process
• Verification and validation

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Nowcasting RDP

• Potential Science Issues for RDPs
•  
• Use of high resolution NWP models for nowcasting
• Value adding to NWP (analysis/forecasts) for
  nowcasting, including merging techniques for
  combining extrapolation and NWP forecasts.
• Limits of nowcasting predictability
• Nowcasting extreme events (rain, wind,
  lightning.)
• Initiation, maintenance and prediction of
  convection. Heavy precipitation, monsoon
  rainfall, nocturnal convection
• Microphysical and dynamical processes important
  in low cloud, fog, icing, and mixed phase
  precipitation
• Development and propagation of snow bands
• Air quality and dispersion modelling

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• Potential System and Forecast Process Issues for
  RDPs
•  
• Integrated observing system development with
  observational error characterization
• Representation of weather in objects. To define
  characteristics of weather elements and as a
  basis for the exchange of weather information.
  Examples are the representation of information
  from cell detection, tracking, growth and decay
  algorithms, and the exchange of such information
  with other applications, and NWP e.g.,
  SIGOONS(Sig. Wea. Object-Oriented Nowcasting
  System)/OPIC (Object for Con. Nowcasting)
  approaches used at Meteo France
• Heuristic methods, such as statistical models,
  conceptual models, including data mining and
  artificial intelligence and fuzzy logic methods.
• Human interfaces which display and enable
  interaction with information observations,
  analyzed fields, extracted objects and NWP
  outputs. Required in a unified manner that
  allows timely implementation of man-machine
  procedures for field and forecast modification.
• Information integration from multiple sources
  e.g., examination and intercomparison of
  techniques used in AWIPS/GFE (USA), SYNERGIE
  (France), and NINJO systems
• End-to-End

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• The European COST projects provide opportunities
  for developing RDPs
• COST Action 717 is examining the use of radar
  observations in hydrological and NWP models. A
  related activity is EU Framework V Project CARPE
  DIEM.
• COST Action 722 is concentrating on fog and low
  cloud forecasting(physical and statistical) with
  verification.
• COST Action 728 will address measuring and
  forecasting atmospheric icing on structures
• US nocturnal convection is a major forecasting
  problem that has received little attention.
• It is possible that this could be developed into
  a WWRP RDP as part of USWRP efforts.

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Nowcasting FDP

• FDPs focused on the following seem possible -
•  
• Convective weather. This was the focus for S2000
  but potential also exists in the USA with
  NASA/NWS SPORT project.
•  Hydrology is considered another potential target
  for an FDP. An FDP should be planned over a
  specified river basin to demonstrate the river
  management organizations benefits to use
  precipitation nowcasts in the course of flood
  control and water resource management.
•  Air quality monitoring and prediction. Would
  make use of latest observational techniques, NWP
  and dispersion models.
•  Aviation weather with emphasis on terminal area
  applications. Specific user with well defined
  costs structure related to convection, wind
  shifts, visibility, fog and low cloud, winter
  Icing and snow forecasting.
•  Road weather
•  Satellite and other non-radar based techniques
  for convective nowcasting systems
•  

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• The Beijing 2008 Olympic Games is presently the
  best candidate for a new FDP. It will be the
  first FDP with formal involvement of the NWG.
  Other opportunities that should be explored are
•  
• Flash flood awareness and civil design in
  association with the RISK-EOS (ESA RD framework)
  project . Includes users, France and Italy.
• NWC SAF (Eumetsat) system. To demonstrate
  utility of Meteosat Second Generation (MSG)
  satellite based nowcasting projects. e.g., but
  RDT automatic monitoring of convection form MSG
  (tracking and characterisation) extended to
  include end-users

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Test beds

• Test beds aimed at accelerating science and
  system issues in an end-to-end setting involving
  developers, nowcasters and end-users.
• The WWRP test bed is essentially an international
  focus for activities encompassing both RDP and
  FDP philosophies.
• Given the range of nowcast issues and varying
  climatic
• regimes it is expected test beds will have a
  regional or national focus but with a theme of
  international significance
• Test beds should make use of existing
  opportunities in various countries that have a
  particular focus, interest and infrastructure to
  support long-term research and operational
  testing on nowcasting techniques
• High quality observational networks covering the
  areas where the meteorological phenomena occur
  with high probability and established end-users

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• Candidate test bed sites include
• Huntsville Alabama (NWS/NASA SPORT) for
  convective weather
• Linking with the short range precipitation
  prediction initiative of the NWS HPC
• Toronto and Montreal (EC/McGill) framework for
  convective and winter weather, including WSDDM
  and AVISA/AIRS for icing
• D. Brisbane, Australia (Bureau of Meteorology)
  for subtropical convection and hydrological
  activities.

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North Alabama Nowcasting Short-term Forecasting
Test Bed
Courtesy, S. Goodman, NASA
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Information exchange

• NWG should consider publishing a guide "Global
  Guide to Nowcasting" which will be a useful
  reference to nowcasters/system developers
  worldwide.
•  
• Website which facilitates exchange of knowledge
  and experience on nowcasting among NMSs

Nowcasting Fellowship

• WMO/ESCAPE Typhoon Committee has established a
  Research fellowship scheme to enable scientists
  of various NMSs to visit other groups to
  undertake tropical cyclone research.
• Establishment of a similar nowcasting research
  fellowship focused on young scientists

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Work Plan and Timetable

• Establish NWG -2004.
• Conferences and Workshops
• Brazil 2003 Training Workshop
• Nowcasting Science and Technical Conference (1st
  half 2005)
• System Developer Workshop (2005)?
• Asian 2006 Workshop?
• WWRP NWG Web Site (2004)?
• Develop Test Bed /RDP Facility (2005-2006)