Title: NOAA
1NOAA Systems Integration
- Scott Rayder
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAAChief of Staff - November 1st, 2007
2NOAAs Vision
3NOAAs Mission
4NOAA Funding Trends
( in Billions)
In FY03, the House did not report or pass an
SJC appropriations bill. The House-Introduced
bill total is used here.
5Key Legislation
Aquaculture
- Coastal Zone Management Act
- Coral Reef Ecosystems Conservation Amendments
Act - National Marine Sanctuaries Amendment Act
- National Offshore Aquaculture Act
- NOAA Organic Act
- Hydrographic Services Improvement Act
- Marine Mammal Protection Amendments Act
- Cooperative Conservation of Marine, Estuarine,
Coastal, and Riverine Habitat Act
Florida Keys Sanctuary
Tide Gauges
6Recent Accomplishments
- Northwestern Hawaiian Islands Marine National
Monument - Reauthorized Magnuson-Stevens Act
- GOES-N Satellite Launched
- Dart II Buoys
- Ocean Research Priority Plan
- Administrator Awards
Endangered Hawaiian Monk Seal
GOES-N Launch
DART II Buoy
NWHI Marine National Monument
7NOAA 200th Celebration Foundations Laid,
Legacies to Carry Forward
U.S. Survey of the Coast1807
U.S. Weather Bureau1870
OAR1955
U.S. Commission on Fish and Fisheries1871
Dr, Susan Solomon
NESDIS1958
NPOESS
8NOAA Workforce
Of NOAAs 12557 employees 8292 have Bachelors
degrees 3638 have Masters degrees 1047 have
Ph.Ds.
58 of NOAAs Workforce are in scientific and
technical occupations
9Retirement Eligibility in 2009 (GS 13)
During 20092012 approximately 50 of the
retirement eligible employees will retire
10GEOSSGlobal Earth Observation System of Systems
- 72 Members
- 46 International Organizations
- A distributed system of systems
- Improves coordination of strategies
observation systems - Links all platforms in situ, aircraft,
satellite networks - Identifies gaps in our global capacity
- Facilitates exchange of data information
- Improves decision-makers abilities to address
pressing policy issues
11Value of Earth Observations
- Better Information for Better Decision Making
- Prediction
- Worldwide agricultural benefits of better El Niño
forecasts are conservatively estimated at
450-550M/year - 25 of Earths biological productivity an
estimated 80-90 of global commercial fish catch
is concentrated in coastal zones - Prevention
- More than 90 of natural disaster-related deaths
occur in developing countries. - Preparedness
- More than 50 of the worlds population lives
within 60 km of the shoreline this could rise to
75 by the year 2020
12NOAAs Hurricane Research Operations
13National Hurricane Centers
National Hurricane Center Miami, Florida Central
Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu, Hawaii Joint
Typhoon Warning Center Honolulu, Hawaii
14National Hurricane CentersAreas of Responsibility
15Tropical Cyclones 1851-2005
16Hurricane Forecast Flow Chart
Observations
Models
Forecast
NOAA Unit
All Buoys and CMAN
NOAA/NWS/NDBC
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft WP-3Ds G-IV WC-130s
NOAA/NMAO NOAA/NMAO USAF Reserve
Satellites POES GOES SSM/I QuikSCAT TRMM AQUA
NOAA/NESDIS NOAA/NESDIS DOD NASA NASA NASA
Atmospheric Soundings, ACARS, PIREPS, and ASOS,
WSR-88D
NOAA/NWS
NOAA/NWS
Ships of Opportunity
Forecasters at NHC assess All observations plus
model output. 16 models are at NHC (4 of which
are from NOAA)
NOAA/NOS
NOAA dynamical models HWRF, GFS, GFDL
NAM Statistical dynamical models BAM, CLIPER,
LBAR, NHC90, SHIPS, SHIFOR, SLOSH, R-CLIPER
?
Tide Gauges
NOAA/NWS/NCEP
Research NOAA/OAR/GFDL NOAA/OAR/AOML NOAA/NESDIS
OAR, CIMSS, CIRA
Non-NOAA dynamical models NOGAPS, UKMET, ECMWF,
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC CPHC Plus HPC as a backup
Forecast Issued by NHC
17Observational Tools
Dropsonde
Doppler Radar
Phased Array Radar
Geostationary (GOES 13) Satellite
NOAA Gulfstream (G-IV) Jet (front) NOAA WP-3D
Orion (back)
NOAA NWS Supercomputers
Polar Orbiting (POES NOAA M) Satellite
18 Polar Orbiting and Geostationary Satellites
19USAF Reserve C130J Aircraft
10 aircraft
Fly Atlantic and eastern Pacific oceans
P
P
Various flight patterns (X, Box, and Delta)
20NOAA G-IV Aircraft
21NOAA P-3 Aircraft
22WSR-88D Coverage
Land-based Doppler radar
Airborne Doppler radar
23Other Observational Tools
Manta
Expendable Bathythermograph (XBT)
UAVs
Altair
24Data Collection
- National Centers for Environmental Prediction
(NCEP) - Gathers observations including recon as does the
NHC - Satellite data received at Wallops Island, Va.
and sent to NCEP - Radar data, ships, buoys (NDBC), other ocean
measuring equipment, atmospheric soundings sent
to NCEP - Models run
- Sent to Gateway computers in Silver Spring, Md.
for dissemination - National Climatic Data Center
- Archive
25Computer Models
- Academia, private sector and government
- Statistical Models
- Dynamical Models
- Statistical-Dynamical Models
- Ensemble Models
- Trajectory Models
26Computer Models
Model Type Model Name (forecast element)
Statistical SHIFOR5 (intensity) CLIPER5 (track)
Dynamical GFS (track/Intensity) GFDL (track/intensity) UKMET (track/intensity) HWRF (track/intensity) NOGAPS (track/intensity)
Statistical-Dynamical NHC98 (track) NHC91 (track) SHIPS (intensity)
27Hurricane Dennis Track Model Guidance
28Hurricane Isabel Track Model Guidance
29Hurricane Ophelia Track Model Guidance
30Hurricane Rita Track Model Guidance
31Hurricane Rita Track Model Guidance
32Other Tools
- Locally developed techniques
- Skill and experience of the forecaster
- Communication systems
- Hurricane Coordination Hotline
- Media
- Hurricane Liaison Team
Hurricane Liaison Team
33What Goes Into A Forecast?
- At least every 6 hours.
- Gather and analyze observations (e.g., satellite,
aircraft, buoys, radar, etc.) - Run models and analyze output
- Hurricane Specialists prepare preliminary
forecast package - Coordination calls with WFOs, other NCEP centers,
AF, and Navy - Post final package and communicate with the
public and media
1
2
3
4
5
34Output/Dissemination
- National Hurricane Center Forecasts Products
(www.nhc.noaa.gov) worldwide distribution - Text
- Graphic
- Weather Forecast Offices provide specific local
details - Storm Surge Forecasts
- Information is distributed via Media,
Interviews, Briefings to decision makers and to
other countries decision makers. - After systems move inland National Center for
Environmental Prediction assumes forecast
responsibility along with the River Forecast
Centers
35Public Advisory
- ...KATRINA...NOW A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST... - A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. - AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE
KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
36Track and Watch/Warning Graphic
37Probabilistic Winds
34 kt
64 kt
0-120 hr
Hurricane Ivan September 13th, 2004
38Storm Surge Forecasts
- The greatest threat to life and property
- Great concern given the growth of the coastal
population and infrastructure - SLOSHNOAAs storm surge forecast tool.
SLOSHHurricane Isabel
SLOSHHurricane Isabel
39NOAAs Tsunami Program
40Kulatara Beach, Thailand Before and After Tsunami
41Tsunami Warning Centers
TWCAlaska
Inside Hawaii TWC
TWCHawaii
42Tsunami Warning CentersAreas-of-responsibility
43Tsunami Warning System
44Seismic DataCritical First Information
Formula for determining Tsunami Magnitude (Mt)
45Coastal Water Level DataCritical Warning and
Verification
46DART Station Mooring SystemEssential Eyes In
The Oceans
DART II BuoyThailand
47Experimental Forecast for Nov 15,2006 Kuril
Islands Tsunami
48The November 15, 2006 Central Kuril Islands
TsunamiForecast vs. Observation
49Tsunami Warning Centers CommunicationsReaching
our Partners Public
50Global Earth Observing System of SystemsThe
benefits of building global observing
architecture are enormous