American Meteorological Society 18th IIPS for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology

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American Meteorological Society18th IIPS for
Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology
National Weather Service Science and Technology
Infusion Plan Roadmap to 2025
Dr. Jack Hayes NWS/Office of Science
Technology January 17, 2002
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Outline

• NWS Office of Science and Technology
• Science and Technology Infusion Plan
• Background
• Example Advances
• Linking Initiatives to Results
• Challenges

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NWS Office ofScience and Technology
Mission

• Drive Science and Technology Advances into NWS
  Operations
• Respond to field requirements and emerging
  opportunities
• Plan, develop, and implement enterprise solutions
• Enable continuous improvement

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NWS Office of Science and Technology
Striving for the Cutting Edge

• Develop synergy among NWSHQ, RHQs, NCEP, and
  WFOs/RFCs
• Reach out to external sources for new ST
• Foster creativity and innovation
• Streamline ST infusion

Centers
WFOs
NESDIS
HQ
OAR
RHQs
USWRP
Universities
Other External RD
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Science and Technology
Infusion Plan
NWS Modernization Success

• NWS Modernization is Complete
• NEXRAD
• ASOS
• AWIPS
• Resulted in Significant Improvements in Weather
  Services

• GOES Satellite Upgrades
• Central Computer Facility Upgrades
• Restructured Field Operations

Average Warning Lead Time Flash Flood
Average Warning Lead Time Tornado
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Science and Technology Infusion Plan
Looking Beyond NWS Today

• Users Continue to Have Growing Needs
• Science and Technology
  Continues to Advance

How Will NWS Respond and Continue to Improve?
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Science and Technology Infusion Plan
Objectives

• Establish ST Direction for Future NWS
• Respond to Operational Product and Service Needs
• Identify Science and Technology Opportunities
• Prioritize Investments
• Support Disciplined and Streamlined Technology
  Insertion
• Foster Partnering

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Science and Technology
Infusion Plan
Frame Work

• NWS Today
• Continuous refreshment of the Modernized NWS
• NWS Next
• What NWS will evolve to by 2010.
• NWS After Next
• NWS of 20 or more years from now.
• (from Dorman Report, 99)

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Science and Technology
Infusion Plan
Process To Date

• Internal Polling December 2000
• Synthesized Dorman, 3 NRC Reports
• Roundtable Discussions - April
• Workshop with External Community Mid June
• Internal Review Forum Mid July
• Senior NWS Management Review Early August

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Science and Technology
Infusion Plan
Vision and Opportunities

• Overarching Vision
• No Unanticipated Weather, Water, Climate, or
  Related
• Environmental Events Impact Nation
• NWS Provides Worlds Best Information and
  Products
• 2000 2025
• Tornadoes 12 mins 40 mins
• Thunderstorms 18 mins 5 hours
• Flash Floods 43 mins 4 hours
• Winter Storms 9 hours 2 days

Example Warning Lead Times
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Science and Technology
Infusion Plan
Notional Elements
After Next
Next
Today
Area

• Dual Polarization
• Expanded MDCRS
• NPOESS Prep

• Phased Array
• UAV dropsondes
• NPOESS

• NEXRAD PPI
• Radiosondes Imp
• POES/DMSP

Observations

• Eta
• MRF
• Local Models

DA / Num. Pred.

• Community multiscale, fully coupled

• WRF
• Community Global / Climate

• Probability theory
• Advanced hybrids
• Seamless database

Forecast Techniques and Product/Information
Generation

• Neural nets
• Fuzzy logic hybrids
• 4-D digital database

• MOS
• Decision Assist.
• IFPS

• NWR
• SBN

• Video
• Global access

• Digital Radio
• Internet 2

Dissemination

• Best available
• Data on demand

• Min. 300 sust. tflps.
• Wireless

• Class IX/X comp.
• AWIPS networks

Enabling Tech.
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Observations
More Frequent, More Detailed
Processor Upgrade Dewpoint Sensor All-Wx Precip.
Gage Ice-Free Wind Sensor

• ASOS
• Upper Air
• Satellites
• NEXRAD

GPS
Next Generation Satellites
Open Systems Architecture Science Infusion Dual
Polarization Phased Array
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Numerical Prediction
Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model

• Develop Advanced Mesoscale Forecast and
  Assimilation System
• Promote Partnerships Between Research and
  Operations

Research

• Design for 1-10 km horizontal grids
• Portable and efficient on parallel computers
• Advanced data assimilation and model physics
• Well suited for a broad range of applications
• Community model with direct path to operations

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Advance Weather Interactive Processing System
(AWIPS)

• Workstation 100 MHz 1000 MHz
• OM 15X Cost Reduction
• Timeframe 2001 - 2004

AWIPS to LINUX
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Interactive Forecast Preparation System

• Focuses NWS Meteorologist on
  Meteorology
• Allows Private/ Public Sector to Access Data
  Base for Their Own Application
• Timeframe FY 2003 - 2005

• Beyond 2005, working toward a complete seamless
  4-D digital database of
• Observations
• Analyses
• Forecasts
• Uncertainty Information
• Outlooks, Watches, Warnings

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Science and Technology PlanningLinking
Initiatives to Results

• Initiatives
• Observations
• Data Assimilation
• Numerical Prediction
• Computing Capability
• Forecaster Techniques
• Dissemination Methods

Results
Improved Hurricane Track, Intensity and
Precipitation Forecasts
Improved Tornado and Flash Flood Forecasts
Improved Aviation, Fire, and Marine Forecasts
Improved Flood and River Predictions
Improved Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Energy,
Agriculture, Etc.
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Challenges

• Keeping Pace with Science and Technology
• Streamlining and Extending Architecture for More
  Rapid, Less Costly ST Insertion
• Evolving Organizational and Operations Concept
  Changes
• Developing National Investment Plan That Can
  Generate and Sustain Necessary Resources
• Incorporating Training and Education