The virtual earth: towards integration of earthquake and computer science

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The 3-rd ACES Working Group Meeting Opening
Address
Peter Mora Chair, Research Committee, ACcESS
MNRF Executive Director, ACES Director, QUAKES
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The scientific debate

• ... small earthquake have some probability of
  cascading into a large event Geller et al
• Earthquake prediction is difficult but not
  impossible, Knopoff
• The problem
• No satisfactory theory of the earthquake source
  process exists at present, Geller

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The APEC Cooperation forEarthquake Simulation
(ACES)

• To develop realistic numerical simulation models
• 2. To foster collaboration
• 3. To foster development of infrastructure
  programs

Develop a unified simulation model for earthquake
generation and earthquake cycles
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Multi-scale simulator
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Outcomes

• Simulation models
• 3 x 2 volume journal issues 3 proceedings
• Collaboration
• Earthquake physics catastrophic failure
• Simulation models and software
• Australia, China, Japan, USA visitors collab
  programs (30 visits, joint publications)
• Infrastructure
• GEM, ServoGrid, QuakeSim
• Earth Simulator, GeoFEM
• Key national program for catastroophic failure
• ACcESS MNRF

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Japan
Earth Simulator The worlds fastest supercomputer
GeoFEM Premier large-scale finite-element
software platform for solid earth simulation

• Solid Earth Simulator Project
• Forefront macro-scale research
• Subduction zone dynamics,
• crustal activity and strong motion
• Mantle and core dynamics

Courtesy of Okuda, Matsuura and Matsui
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China

• Fracture physics, mesoscopic damage models,
  intraplate observations

Courtesy of Yin, Xia and Bai
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USASimulation of the CA interacting fault system
Courtesy of Rundle, Donnellan and Olsen
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Australia

• Micro-models
• Earthquake physics
• and dynamics
• Crustal mantle models

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The Australian Computational Earth Systems
Simulator (ACcESS)Major National Research
Facility
A multi-scale multi-physics ESS

• Achieve a holistic virtual earth simulation
  capability

• Provide a computational virtual earth serving
• Australias national needs

• One of two science Major National Research
  Facilities
• being established in Australia

• Develop software models, and establish
• thematic supercomputer needed for research
  outcomes

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Multi-institutional, multi-disciplinary
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Earth dynamics
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Earth dynamics
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Earth dynamics
(Muhlhaus and Weatherley)
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Earth dynamics
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Earth dynamics
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Earth dynamics
(Mora and Place)
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Earth dynamics
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Earth dynamics
(Mora and Place)
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Earth dynamics
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Earth dynamics
(Sandiford)
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Earth dynamics
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Earth dynamics
(Moresi and Muhlhaus)
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Earth dynamics

• Planetary scale minerals exploration

• predictive capacity for regional scale crustal
  deformation and mineralisation

• vastly improved scientific underpinning for
  natural human-induced geohazard mitigation and
  prevention

• virtual prototyping innovations of massive or
  national scale natural and engineered systems

• a potential for high-tech spin-offs involving
  novel mining and materials engineering
  technologies

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Software framework
Software Independent Problem Formulation (Geome
tric Mathematical)
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Management structure
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Vision for future solid earth systems science
A predictive capability for solid earth system
dynamics
Advances in understanding solid earth physics,
numerical simulation methodology supercomputer
technology are bringing the vision within reach
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Next steps

• Integrate software developments and computational
  environments/algorithms
• Ramp-up of national programs to capture benefits
  of investment in research infrastructure
• Enhance supercomputers and connectivity
• Strengthen international collaboration and
  establish large scale programatic research -
  international institute in two years time frame

iSERVO Institute International Solid Earth
Research Virtual Earth Institute

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SimulationA powerful tool to fuel breakthroughs