DFIDIFPRI CONSULTATION ON HIVAIDS AND RURAL LIVELIHOODS

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DFID-IFPRI CONSULTATION ON HIV/AIDS AND RURAL
LIVELIHOODS

• OVERVIEW
• TONY BARNETT

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WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT HIV/AIDS, AGRICULTURE AND
RURAL LIVELIHOODS?

• FAO SIMULATIONS - TANZANIA, RUANDA, MALAWI
  1988-91
• DFID STUDY UGANDA 1989-90
• MONZE, ZAMBIA 1991 (1997)
• WORLD BANK - VARIOUS 1991
• FAO STUDY EAST AFRICA 1993
• UNDP RAJASTHAN 1995
• BUKOBA 1995-7
• FAO STUDY WEST AFRICA 1997
• ZAMBIA SMALLHOLDERS 1997
• KENYA 1999
• MUTANGADURA ET AL 1999

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IMPORTANT REVIEWS

• Mutangadura et al 1999 AIDS and African
  Smallholder Agriculture, Safaids
• White and Robinson 2000 HIV/AIDS and Rural
  Livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa, DFID
• Topouzis 2000 Review and Analysis of Approaches
  to Measuring the Impact of HIV/AIDS on the
  Agricultural Sector in Africa, UNAIDS/FAO/ADF

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RECYCLING
Danger of recycling anecdotes and limited
information
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Some issues to consider...
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IMPACT

• OVER WHAT TIME PERIOD?
• HOW FAR DOES IT EXTEND?
• BOTH OF THESE QUESTIONS HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR
  MONITORING AND SURVEILLANCE

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IMPACT

• AGRICULTURAL/LIVELIHOOD CHANGES ARE IN A DYNAMIC
  RELATIONSHIP WITH
• THE EPIDEMIC CURVE
• SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION

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AGRICULTURAL AND RURAL LIVELIHOOD CHANGE WILL BE
IN DYNAMIC RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EPIDEMIC CURVE
Policy responses should relate to the stage of
the epidemic
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SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
The geography of orphaning - the intersection of
time and space
Agricultural, livelihood and NR impacts could be
plotted in this way
Low-Beer, D., Stoneburner, R.L. and Mukulu, A
(May 1997), Empirical Evidence for the severe
but localised impact of AIDS on population
structure, Nature Medicine, Vol. 3 No. 5
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THIS IS NOT SOLELY ABOUT AFRICA

• ALL BUT TWO STUDIES ARE OF AFRICA
• EXCEPTIONS ARE RAJASTHAN AND LAOS
• WE NOW NEED TO BE LOOKING AT THE IMPACT OF THE
  EPIDEMIC ON RURAL LIVELIHOODS OUTSIDE AFRICA
• WORK IS NEEDED IN INDIA AND WEST CHINA BUT ALSO
  PERHAPS IN EAST EUROPE
• A CASE STUDY SHOULD BE DONE IN PNG

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This is not solely about smallholders

• Need for studies of e.g. fishing, pastoralist and
  long-distance trading/migratory communities - a
  major factor in India
• We have few studies of the rural commercial
  sector - important source of rural employment

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RURAL LIVELIHOODS AND AGRICULTURE

• IS THE HOUSEHOLD THE RIGHT UNIT OF ANALYIS?
• ALTERNATIVE IS THE CLUSTER - AN ACTOR DEFINED
  UNIT - FAO 1995
• ALTERNATIVE IS TO CONSIDER LIVELIHOOD SYSTEMS FOR
  PLANNING BROADER SECTORAL RESPONSE

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STUDIES OF HOUSEHOLDS

• We have to be aware of food security and
  livelihood issues as they reflect impact within
  households
• examples distribution of nutrition between boys
  and girls entitlements to inherit between
  seniors and juniors and between genders land
  tenure implications

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STUDIES OF AGRICULTURE OR STUDIES OF HOUSEHOLDS?

• EXAMINING HIV/AIDS IMPACT ON LIVELIHOODS REQUIRES
  INTERDISCIPLINARY TEAMS
• LIVELIHOOD STUDIES ARE NOT THE SAME AS HOUSEHOLD
  STUDIES
• NEITHER ARE THEY STUDIES OF AGRICULTURAL
  SYSTEMS

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WE STILL KNOW LITTLE ABOUT IMPACT ON FARMING
SYSTEMS

• INITIAL SURVEYS OF UGANDA, ZAMBIA AND TANZANIA IN
  TERMS OF VULNERABILITY
• IMPACT ON FARMING SYSTEMS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR
  BROADER NR MANAGEMENT
• WE SHOULD BE USING SATELLITE IMAGING TECHNIQUES
  COMBINED WITH GROUND CHECKING

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AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM CHANGES
Experience in Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania and Zambia
indicates that there is often sufficient
information scattered around to enable initial
mapping of farming systems. In principle these
can be overlaid onto sentinel surveillance data
to provide some initial guide to relative
vulnerability of farming systems to labour loss.
Uganda farming system vulnerability
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SURVEILLANCE AND MONITORING - AGRICULTURE

• LOCAL DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILES
• LOCAL REPORTS OF CROPPING CHANGES
• LOCAL REPORTS ABOUT HIV/AIDS AND ANIMAL/PLANT
  DISEASE INTERACTIONS (Sigatoka??)
• INTEREST GROUPS TO CONSIDER LOCAL EXPERIENCE AND
  RESPONSES
• SCALED UP RESPONSES WILL PROBABLY BE DIFFICULT -
  A CHALLENGE FOR AGENCIES

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SURVEILLANCE AND MONITORING - HOUSEHOLDS,
COMMUNITIES AND LIVELIHOODS - WHAT ARE WE
MEASURING?

• WE MEASURE WHAT WE CAN EASILY MEASURE
• MUCH IMPACT IS AT THE LEVEL OF SOCIAL
  REPRODUCTION - NOT EASILY MEASURED
• INTERGENERATIONAL KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER
• WE MAY BE SERIOUSLY UNDERESTIMATING IMPACT IF WE
  DO NOT DEVELOP NEW MEASURES (OVER 1999?)

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COPING

• THERE ARE PROBLEMS WITH THIS CONCEPT
• THERE COMES A TIME WHEN PEOPLE CANNOT COPE OR
  WHEN WE ARE IN DANGER OF TEACHING PEOPLE HOW TO
  ENDURE EXTREME POVERTY (RUGALEMA 2000)

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COPING? MASAKA, UGANDA 1996

• Since you have come here to learn the problems
  of old people, I will tell you that a big problem
  is the lack of something to cover ourselves with
  at night.
• Even if you eat badly you can still be OK if you
  have a blanket.
• (Williams, 1998, 139).

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Dependency ratios in households

• Quantitative and qualitative studies seem to show
  different things
• We are unclear as to the effects of the epidemic
  on dependency ratios
• the issue may be specific features of the
  inter/intra household farm/domestic labour
  balance - local variations

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Is labour the crucial variable anyway (Rugalema)?

• Is it capital?
• Animals?
• social capital?
• In India it may well be irrigated land or just
  irrigation
• How does HIV/AIDS impact on these?

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THE CHALLENGES

• HOW TO MOVE FASTER THAN A GLACIER
• HOW TO FORM COOPERATIVE NETWORKS TO TAKE THIS
  WORK FORWARD
• HOW TO MAKE THOSE PRESENTLY UNAFFECTED AWARE OF
  THE NEED TO ACT NOW - INDIA? CHINA?