The Orange Order in the Twentieth Century: A Comparative Perspective

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The Orange Order in the Twentieth Century A
Comparative Perspective
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Analysis of Variation in Membership Patterns

• Variation by County in Northern Ireland
• Variation over Time in Northern Ireland
• International Patterns (v. Canada, Scotland)
• Inter-Fraternal Patterns (v. Masons, IOOF)
• Theories of Change
• Results of Statistical Analyses (time permitting)

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Current Trends in N.I. Orange Membership,
1966-2001
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Membership Decline by County, 1961-2001
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Inter-County Patterns, N.I. Orangeism

• General decline since membership peak in early
  1960s (mid-Ulster), or 50s (East)
• Height of the Troubles (1969-72) boosted
  membership temporarily, as did Anglo-Irish
  Agreement and Drumcree
• However, general trend is a steady decline
• Urban areas suffer heavier declines, even taking
  into account population flows.

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International Orange Similarities

• All jurisdictions experience growth until the
  1920s
• All decline in the Depression years
• All experience growth after World War II
• All experience steady decline in recent decades
• N.I Scotland 1 Scotland 2 Ontario
  Newfoundland

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International Differences

• Membership decline sets in as early as the 1920s
  in Canada and decline in the 1920-39 period is
  sharper
• Membership decline in the post-1960 period has
  been quicker in Canada, while Northern Ireland
  and Scotland have declined at similar steady
  rates

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Inter-Fraternal Patterns

• Masons appear to have outdrawn Orange Order from
  late forties until late sixties in N.I. And since
  the 1920s in Ontario ONT NI 1
• Orange Order has withstood post-1970 declines
  better than Masonic NI2
• Inter-County Patterns in Masonic match those of
  Orange NI3
• IOOF declined in step with Orange in Ontario ONT

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Summary

• Great deal of similarity in shape of historical
  patterns of membership across nations and
  fraternities
• Great deal of difference between places and
  fraternities in terms of slope of rise/decline in
  membership

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Theories of Fraternal Change

• Beito Decline in 1920s as welfare state emerges
• Emery Decline in 1920s or 30s due to private
  insurance and expanded recreational options
• Putnam Depression caused decline, WWII boosted
  membership. Differences in Social Capital
  between Generations explains most of post-1960
  decline.
• Culturalist Decline of Protestant Religiosity
  (Bruce?), Decline of Loyalty to Crown, Decline of
  British-Protestant Ethnic Identity, Ecumenism

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Preliminary Statistical Tests Across County

• NI Economic factors not important (1901-71).
  Denomination key RC and Other Protestant
  increase membership Methodist and
  Presbyterian strongly decrease it.
• SCT Irish born population of fifty years ago,
  interacting with Catholic population today. But
  each on its own is not powerful, both are needed.
  All other factors pale in comparison. (for
  1901-71)
• ONT No strong factor - Irish Protestant
  population most powerful. Proportion Irish,
  French or Catholic has limited effect. (1911-41)

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Preliminary Statistical Tests Across Time

• Denominational balance (esp. rise of Methodism
  and Other Protestant sects) important during
• 1901-71.
• Orangeism in N.I. Responded to RC population
  growth until 1970, but not since then
• Political events (Troubles, Peace Agreements,
  Drumcree) have been a factor in N.I. post-1970
• Rate of Protestant fatalities have had little
  impact in N.I. since 1970
• High-school education appears correlated with
  membership decline in Ontario during 1955-75
• Still more work needed in this and other areas