Military Decision-Making Process and Effect-Based Operations Concepts: A Comparative Study, Lessons Learned and Implications

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Military Decision-Making Process and Effect-Based
Operations ConceptsA Comparative Study, Lessons
Learned and Implications

Dr. K. Wheaton Defence RD Canada Centre for Operational Research and Analysis Department of National Defence, National Defence Headquarters Major-General George R. Pearkes Building, 101 Colonel By Drive Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0K2, Canada Phone [phone], Fax [phone], Email kendall.wheaton_at_drdc-rddc.gc.ca
Dr. A. Guitouni Decision Support System Section, Defence RD Canada - Valcartier 2459 Pie-XI North, Val-Belair, QC, G3J 1X5, Canada Phone [phone] ext. 4392, Fax [phone], Email adel.guitouni_at_drdc-rddc.gc.ca
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Agenda

• Introduction
• Military Decision-Making Process (MDMP)
• Effect Based Approach (EBA)
• Comparative Study
• Lessons Learned and Implications
• Concluding remarks

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Motivation

• New concepts trigger one of the three reactions
• Enthusiasm and support
• Scepticism and opposition
• Neutral and no interest
• Innovation, Evolution and Revolution
• Do EBO is an innovation, evolution or a
  revolution?
• What is wrong? and what is the cause? What is the
  best, affordable, feasible and practical
  solution?
• Need to bridge between theoretical development
  and practice

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C4ISR Target Integration Model
Capt(N) Knight
Produce
Orient
Global and Operational Data
Virtual Knowledge Base
COP
TPED
TPPU
Observe
Analyze
Direct
Decide
Act
Collate
CFCS Information Grid Collaborative Information
Environment
Security Layer
Access Control Dissemination Layer
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Intelligence Cycle
Source CF Joint and Land Doctrine
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Intelligence Preparedness of the Battlespace

• IPB is the analytical process used by
  intelligence organizations to produce
  intelligence assessments, estimates, and other
  intelligence products in support of the
  Commanders decision-making process.
• IPB Focus
• Battlespace effects and enemy capability
• Predictive intelligence to discern enemy intent
  and likely COA

Source CF Joint and Land Doctrine
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Intelligence Preparedness of the Battlespace

• Define the battlespace environment
• Describe the battlespaces effects
• Evaluate the adversary
• Determine adversary courses of action

Source CF Joint and Land Doctrine
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Operations Planning Process

• A methodical thought process designed to Focus
  the Staff, Serve the Commander and Provide the
  Necessary Products to direct the joint force.
• Steps
• Initiation
• Orientation
• COA Development
• Plan Development
• Plan Review

Source CF Joint and Land Doctrine
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Concepts

• Operational Art Art of translating strategic
  objectives into operational design to link
  strategy to tactics.
• Operational Design Massing joint effects to
  attack the enemys centre of gravity while
  protecting ones own.
• Centre of Gravity determined, not chosen
• Decisive Points determined, not chosen
• Strengths Weaknesses friend and foe
• Factors Significant aspects of time, space
  environment

Source CF Joint and Land Doctrine
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Operational Art
Strategic Direction,Guidance and Resources
The OperationalPlanning Process
End-State
Operational Art
Source CF Joint and Land Doctrine
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OPP Lexicon

• Centre of Gravity is a characteristic, capability
  or locality from which a military force, nation
  or alliance derives freedom of action, strength
  or will
• Decisive Point is a point from which a hostile or
  friendly Centre of Gravity can be threatened.
  This point may exist in time, space, or in
  information environment. Decisive points are
  often effects Or a condition that must be
  achieved to expose the enemys Centre of Gravity
• Critical Vulnerability is a characteristic or key
  element of a force that if destroyed, captured or
  neutralised will significantly undermine the
  fighting capability of the force and its centre
  of gravity. May be a strength or a weakness.

Source CF Joint and Land Doctrine
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OPP Concepts
Adapted from LCol Scheidl Brief
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DECISIVE POINTS
DP
CG
OBJ
CG
ATTACK
DEFEND
Source CF Joint and Land Doctrine
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CF Decision Making Process
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CF Decision Making Process
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Effects Based Operations Lexicon

• An effect is the physical, functional, or
  psychological outcome, event, or consequence that
  results from specific military or non-military
  actions. It should be achievable, and
  measurable.
• A state is a set of conditions of the system. A
  state could be stable or instable and have the
  properties of being desirable or undesirable. An
  End State is a set of desired conditions beyond
  which will achieve strategic objectives.
• Objective is the intended state of affairs to be
  achieved by the aggregation of specified
  Effect(s).
• Strategic aim is a single, unambiguous purpose
  attained by the achievement of one or more
  objectives.
• A Decisive Effect is an effect that will either
  achieve an end state or complete a phase in a
  military operation.
• Second and Third Order Effects are the tightly
  inter-linked flow-on outcomes from actions, or
  1st order effects, which magnify the impact of
  the original action and are aimed at influencing
  the will of an individual or organisation.

United States Department of Defence, Joint
Forces Command Glossary, and other
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Effects Based Operations Lexicon

• An Enabling Effect is an effect that adds to the
  system of effects designed to produce a decisive
  effect.
• Effector is a capability, a person or an
  organisation that could carry an action that
  might result in an effect.
• Constant Engagement is the concept of standing,
  continuous engagement with friendly, neutral and
  potential adversary agencies to facilitate shared
  situational awareness and support integrated
  planning to achieve national policy goals.
• System - Any organized assembly of resources and
  procedures united and regulated by interaction or
  interdependence to accomplish a set of specific
  functions.
• System of Systems - A grouping of organized
  assemblies of resources, methods, and procedures
  regulated by interaction or interdependence to
  accomplish a set of specific functions. For
  example, a "system of systems" could include the
  economic entities in a nation such as the banking
  system, production system, etc.

United States Department of Defence, Joint
Forces Command Glossary, and other
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Effects Based Operations Lexicon

• Operational assessment is best defined as the art
  and science of enhancing the operational
  commanders judgment and decisions about the
  military campaigns effectiveness and attendant
  risk in progressing toward the military end
  state.
• A node is an entity in the Network system that
  performs one or more basic net centric actions
  and is able to interact with other nodes in the
  system. Node a person, place, or thing that is
  a fundamental component of a system. A node could
  be a collector, information provider, decider,
  effector, communicator or supporter.
• An action is an activity directed towards the
  achievement of an effect or effects directed at a
  specific node for the purpose of achieving an
  effect. Actions have the properties of being
  direct or indirect.
• Resources are the forces, material and other
  assets which can be employed to conduct an
  action. Task one or more actions assigned to
  an organization.

United States Department of Defence, Joint
Forces Command Glossary, and other
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Effects Based Operations CA
Operations designed to influence the long - or
short-term state of a system through the
achievement of desired physical or psychological
effects. Operational objectives are sought to
achieve directed policy aims using the integrated
application of all applicable instruments of
hard/soft power. Desired effects, and the actions
required to achieve them, are concurrently and
adaptively planned, executed, assessed (and
potentially altered) within a complex and
adaptive system
CA working definition
Grossman-Vermaas, R.., EBO Concept Development
and Experimentation Initiatives, 2005.
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Effects Based Operations

• The application of military and non-military
  capabilities to realise specific and desired
  strategic and operational outcomes in peace,
  tension, conflict and post-conflict situations.
• The intent of EBO is to produce effects - not
  just to conduct an action in isolation - and the
  planning, conduct and assessment of operations
  must reflect this approach. EBO focuses on
  military operations but also supports Whole of
  Nation planning.
• Employing this approach, requires
  inter-dependencies with other government
  agencies, allies and coalition partners, neutral
  third parties and other nations.
• This is not a new approach however, EBO seeks to
  more effectively coordinate military effects with
  the various elements of power in achieving
  objectives.

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EBO Concept Assumption National Power
Integration (DIME)
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EBO Concept Assumption National Power Integration

• A broader view of conflict is a central theme of
  EBO
• It incorporates knowledge of not just an
  adversary, but OGDs, own and allied forces, as
  well as neutral elements such as non-government
  organisations.
• It exploits this knowledge to generate the
  broadest range of effects which support the
  eventual achievement of the national goal.
• EBO seeks to identify the 2nd, 3rd, order
  effects of applying national power.
• For EBO to work, all of the constituent elements
  of national power must employ an effects-based
  holistic thinking to synchronise actions.
• As one of the principle elements of national
  power, the military will have a major role in
  achieving national security objectives.

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Effect-based Planning
MNE 3 EBP Process Steps
Baseline ONA
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Operational Net Assessment (ONA)
Academia
Social and Cultural
Vulnerabilities
Dependencies
Natl and Intl Intelligence
Physical
Political
Economic
Defence
Strengths
NODES
Policy Centres
Scientific and Technical
Legal, Ethical and Moral
OGDs, IGOs
Relationships
Private Industry
Weaknesses
Military
System Understanding
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EBP Process MNE 4 Conops Ver 0.65
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Comparative Study EBO vs MDMP
EBO MDMP
Holistic thinking Military thinking
Integration of national power actions Service providers to the government
Effects Targets and Critical Vulnerabilities
Decisive Effect Centres of Gravity / Decisive Point
Second and Third Order Effects First and Second order
Enabling Effect Supporting Tasks / Implied Tasks
End State End State
Dynamic Situation Static Situation
Need for persistent situation awareness Initial situation assessment (not reconsidered dynamically)
EBP OPP
Operational Network Assessment (has been changed to Knowledge based assessment) IPB
Decentralised Decision Making Centralised Decision Making
Constant Engagement Constant Engagement
Feed-back loops Loose feed-back loops
System System
System of Systems System of Systems
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Comparative Study EBO vs MDMP

• EBO is a very powerful paradigm or concepts that
  push the leadership to embrace a more
  comprehensive and holistic thinking.
• EBO require to think about actions and their
  secondary effects. EBO lead decision makers to
  think not only about winning the war, but also
  how to win the peace.
• MDMP as a very focused and oriented process,
  consider only planning for military actions.
• The holistic thinking is appropriate for
  strategic change management. But, what about
  operational and tactical levels? How to apply the
  DIME concepts at the tactical level?

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Comparative Study EBO vs MDMP

• EBO strength might be seen in its recognition of
  the dynamic situation analysis and the system of
  systems approach to it.
• Leaders and their supporting staff should be able
  to monitor such system of systems dynamics,
  understand its fundamental rules and derive where
  to create an decisive effect to change it to a
  desired end state.
• MDMP is based on static reading of the situation.
  Iterations and refinement of plans lead to
  reviewing the situation from time to time.
• How to perform continuous situation assessment if
  the information is continuously changing? What is
  the balance between dynamic analysis and static?
  What is the influence of information overload on
  the quality of the analysis? Is it better to make
  some abstraction and focus on the fundamental
  aspects rather than continuously monitor the
  change?

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Comparative Study EBO vs MDMP

• Assessing effects and actions is another good
  concept of EBO.
• Understanding the cascading effects and their
  relationships is very complex undertaking.
• It is sometimes impossible to list all possible
  effects.
• MDMP focus only on assessing military actions on
  targets, which is more focused assessment
  process.
• Theoretically, decision-making is better served
  by a holistic and coherent assessment process,
  practically however, it is unfeasible.

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Comparative Study EBO vs MDMP

• EBP is continuous planning process that never
  stops until the desired end-state is achieved.
• MDMP stops as soon as the final plan is approved
  and the orders are issued.
• Amendment and new tasking could be issued as a
  reaction to execution, but tactical Commanders
  are given a good room of manoeuvre to adapt to
  situation.

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Comparative Study EBO vs MDMP

• EBO require that all constituents of national
  power should be integrated and adopt and EBA
  thinking in order to achieve strategic aim and
  manage change. Theoretically, such integration is
  a must.
• But, to which level should such integration goes.
  
• How to enable such integration while observing
  national constitutions and lows? How to
  accommodate dynamic, continuous and agile
  decision-making within bureaucratic, political
  and sometimes polarized environments?
• MDMP recognise coordination with other agencies
  and national power constituents. MDMP assume that
  more integration should happen at a higher level
  like the government or some special bodies.

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Comparative Study EBO vs MDMP

• EBO to work require a high level of
  collaboration. Such collaboration is very broad
  according to EBO.
• MDMP recognise collaboration, but at a very
  limited scale.
• Advances in technology have triggered integration
  of collaborative planning tools within
  headquarters. MDMP is now more distributed and
  collaborative process.
• Flexibility is requirement for both EBO and MDMP.
• Effects and Actions Assessment might become very
  complex and heavy process.

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Lessons Learned

• MN LOE I concluded that collaborative planning
  can be conducted in a distributed environment.
• MNE 3 showed that the EBP concept has potential
  for operational and joint task force headquarters
  but requires further refinement.
• While participants found the process complex,
  they praised the concept for forcing them to
  think in terms of effects, which expanded their
  options.
• MNE3 found that the staff should be organized and
  trained to support the requirements of the EBP
  process.
• An integrated suite of tools is required to
  support distributed collaborative planning and
  the EBP process.

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Implications

• The main point is that the EBP and EBO concepts
  are still being developed. Therefore, the
  opportunity exists to harmonize the MDMP within
  the EBA.
• Future experimentation could investigate the
  effectiveness of distributed planning with
  higher-level headquarters conducting EBP while
  subordinate headquarters conduct MDMP.
• The MDMP could be modified recognizing an EBP
  process.
• The MNE 3 lessons call for an integrated suite of
  tools.
• Developing such a tool suite to support both
  processes and facilitate distributed
  collaborative planning amongst all of the
  headquarters involved should be considered.

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Implications

• The MDMP should be closely coupled to the
  Commanders Intent and driven by his critical
  information requirements.
• Information and intelligence production should be
  cued to the Commanders desired effects and the
  MDMP should be adapted to integrate dynamic
  information and intelligence management and
  dynamic situation analysis, to develop trust
  among all levels of decision-making, to
  contribute to a shared knowledge base (ONA
  database), and create a collaborative
  decision-making environment.
• These are important issues for harmonizing the
  MDMP with the EBP process.

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Implications

• The other key challenge will be to adapt
  leadership skills for a distributed coalition
  collaborative environment.
• As found in MNE 3, different skills are required
  from the traditional command and control
  environment.
• Training, Teaching and Skill Sets.
• The MDMP should be reviewed and adapted based
  upon EBA concepts.
• The EBA and the MDMP should benefit from a broad
  range of tools as well as supporting concepts
• Network Centric Warfare, disciplines like the
  decision sciences, and theories like complexity
  theory, graph theories, and chaos theory as well
  as social theories

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Implications

• MOEs and MOPs (Metrics or Criteria) Fundamental
  Properties
• Measurable
• Feasible
• Comprehensive
• MOEs and MOPs (Metrics or Criteria) Desired
  Properties

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Concluding remarks

• MDMP and EBO are not competing concepts
• It is clear that the EBA/EBO is still a paradigm
  in development. In our opinion, the EBA and the
  MDMP should not be seen as competing or
  contradictory concepts.
• EBO is not a new operational concept, it is a way
  of thinking or paradigm
• Teach military decision-makers to integrate a
  holistic thinking in their way of dealing with
  complex problems
• Develop and maintain a collaborative culture with
  other national and international powers

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Concluding remarks

• Power to the edge Decentralisation versus
  centralisation
• Sharing situation awareness
• Shared intent
• Trust in both direction
• Agility and adaptability
• Accountability Fault tolerance
• C2 Structure and Organisation
• Operational Design and the Assessment are the
  Achilles heel of EBO

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Concluding remarks

• MDMP has become a staff centric process rather
  than a Command centric
• MDMP supposes a static situation while EBO
  recognizes that environment is dynamic
• Need to better integrate dynamic information and
  intelligence management to the OPP like
  persistent surveillance and dynamic situation
  analysis
• Requirement to better integrate OPP and IPB
  Intelligence and Information production should be
  cued toward achieving the desired effects
• MDMP should be seen as problem solving process
  that could be modernised by teaching a holistic
  analytical thinking Critical thinking
• Emerging tools and sciences are required like
  chaos theory