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Leaded Gasoline in Kenya Daniel Atz
History of Leaded Fuel
Abridged Recent History of Kenya
Fundamental Changes Needed

• Since the beginning of automobile production
  there had always been an outstanding issue with
  high compression internal combustion engines and
  gasoline. The engine burns the gasoline for
  energy, but if the gasoline ignites overly
  quickly the piston is slammed this is called
  engine knocking. Researches discovered that
  raising the octane level of the fuel by mixing in
  an additive would decrease the burning rate and
  thus engine knocking. In 1922, tetraethyl lead
  was first added to gasoline as a cheap
  octane-raising additive. It also provided the
  benefit of lubricating the exhaust valve stem,
  reducing valve ageing.
• However, starting in the 1970s, society started
  to realize what a horrible mistake leaded
  gasoline was for global public health. Lead
  additives to automobile fuel were the greatest
  cause of lead exposure worldwide. Lead from fuel
  first contaminates the air leading to inhalation
  air pollution then also pollutes dust and soil,
  which pollute drinking water and crops. The
  world should have seen this coming from day one.
  The first factory to produce tetraethyl lead
  experienced an outbreak of acute neuropsychiatry
  disease and 80 of the workers developed
  convulsions with five deaths. Many other
  epidemiological studies have been done. A 2004
  US study also connected children of mothers from
  the 1960s who were highly exposed to metal in
  automobile exhaust, to be twice as likely to
  develop schizophrenia. Much of the lead research
  surrounds lead exposure to children. The nervous
  systems of the fetus and infant are especially
  susceptible to lead. The effects on the nervous
  system result in lowered intelligence and
  disruption of normal behavior. The brain also
  has little capacity to repair itself, so these
  are permanent damages.
• Until the 1970s, on average, gasoline contained
  .4 grams of lead per liter. Leaded gasoline
  phase-out started in the USA with the 1970 Clean
  Air Act, which required unleaded gasoline
  production and availability by 1975. 1975 was
  chosen because that year US automobiles started
  including catalytic converters to reduce other
  unhealthy emissions. The converters were
  rendered unusable by leaded gasoline. More
  legislation through the 1980s reduced leaded
  gasoline until the 1990 Clean Air Act, which set
  1996 as the year that lead was banned in the USA.
  By 1996, 80 of the worlds gasoline was lead
  free. Other additives, such as ethanol, became
  clear healthier and financial choices. By this
  time many countries had already completely banned
  leaded gasoline, with Japan as early as 1980.
  The European Union and China completely banned
  leaded gasoline in 2000.

Kenya has a complicated economic history. For a
long time Kenya had a very low annual economic
growth rate. As recent as 2005 the rate shot up
above 5, still below the 7 needed to help
develop a country. However, Kenya has always
been seen as a stable country in Africa with a
large middle class, relative to the rest of
Africa. Many international businesses base their
Africa operations in Kenyas capital Nairobi,
including Google, General Electric, and Cisco.
Many international organizations are also based
out of Nairobi, including the UN Environmental
Protection agency. However, this stable status
is often overshadowed by government corruption.
The December 2007 election was largely seen as
rigged, resulting in weeks of nationwide rioting
and ethnic violence. The violence lead to the
deaths of over 1,000 people and the internal
displacement of 100,000s of people. A coalition
government formed between the two major political
parties involved in the election eventually
calmed down the rioting. However, it is not yet
statistically clear how badly the rioting coupled
with the international economic downturn will
affect Kenyas economy.
Shell and Total (originally Chevron) own a 50
stake in the Kenya Petroleum Refinery. The
Kenyan government owns the other half. This
refinery refines most of the gasoline in Kenya.
In 2003, the head of the refinery asked the
government for US265 million to update the
refinery to mass-produce unleaded gasoline.
However, the funding has yet to arrive and
updates have yet to take place due to
governmental wrangling. Further, people are
reluctant to switch to unleaded fuels even though
most vehicles can easily use it. Using leaded
gasoline in older vehicles is costing around
US72 million per year in repairs due to engine
corrosion.
Downtown Nairobi.
Epidemiologists say that urban areas are the
worst when it comes to lead pollution, and for
that matter, most other forms of pollution. With
high-density traffic, lots of pollutants come out
into the air. Kenya now has 935,000 private
automobiles on its roads. Over half of them are
located in Nairobi, a city of 4.3 million people
that only 45 years ago was a city of 350,000.
With the extreme pollution associated with so
many cars, especially with many running on leaded
gasoline, it then makes sense that Nairobi is a
very polluted, and lead poisoned, city. A
2005 study done by Kenyatta University (a top
university in Kenya) found soil lead levels in
the Nairobi Central Business District at 265,918
µg/kg. The World Health Organization suggests a
level under 110. Milk found at the same location
contained 40 µg/L, with the suggested level at
20. The study went on to test blood lead levels
from 4 school or medical sites around Nairobi and
one lead occupational site. 253 people took
part in Nairobi, with 41 aged from 3-20. The
results found 55 had blood levels under
4.9µg/dl, 20 from 5 to 9.9, and 25 above 10
µg/dl. One sample had as high as 65 µg/dl, found
at the occupational site. The researchers then
went to a small village and did blood level tests
on 55 people. They found the highest at 4.1
µg/dl. In Nairobi, the highest non-occupational
blood lead levels were found in those less than
10 years of age. Of those, 23 were above 10
µg/dl. The study attributes such high levels in
the densely populated city to leaded gasoline.
Another study was done in Kisumu, an urban area
by Lake Victoria in Kenya. Here, tap water was
found to have 140 to 260 µg/g, above the WHO
suggest 10 µg/g. Fish were found to have 1 to
3.3 µg/g, above the suggested .2 µg/g.
Leaded Gasoline Reform Appeals from the United
Nations
Despite the UN Environmental Program (UNEP)s
claiming since the 1980s that it only takes
US.02 per liter to take the lead out of
gasoline, many countries continue to ignore the
call. UNEP also claims the cost to the
environment and public health directly outweigh
the two-cent fee. To this day, around 30 states
continue to use leaded gasoline such as Cuba and
Mongolia, and many more do so unofficially. One
area that UNEP targeted in particular to
eliminate leaded gasoline usage was Sub-Saharan
Africa, including Kenya. In June 2001, 25
countries of Sub-Saharan Africa met in Dakar,
Senegal and signed the Dakar Declaration of 2001
to phase out leaded gasoline. This was followed
up upon in 2002 by the developed world in 2002 at
the World Summit on Sustainable Development. By
2003 some countries started eliminating leaded
gasoline. In that same year UNEP announced that
now 90 of the worlds gasoline was unleaded and
that they hoped that the Dakar Declaration would
be carried out in full by 2008. At the same
time, they announced more advanced economies in
the area, including Kenya, had pledged a deadline
of 2005-06 to eliminate leaded fuels. With these
dates set, it came as a surprise that in December
of 2005 UNEP sent out a press release claiming
that only one more country, South Africa, needed
to complete the conversion to only unleaded
fuels. The release claimed the conversion would
be done by the beginning of the year. Thus, by
2006 Sub-Saharan Africa would be leaded gasoline
free. Their goal had been met.
Kenya Facts at a Glance
Reality Check
The Republic of Kenya is an Eastern African
country that is 582,650 square kilometers or
around twice the size of Nevada. Its capital is
Nairobi and the country is split into 7
provinces. The country has a population of
37,953,840 people based on a July 2008 estimate
that takes into account the effect of a 6.7 AIDS
rate among adults in the country. This implies a
lower life expectancy, higher death rates, lower
population growth rate, and changes in
distribution of population by age and sex. The
actual population growth rate is 2.758 and the
infant mortality rate is 56 deaths per 1,000 live
births. Life expectancy at birth is 56 years for
both sexes. This compares to the United States
where the population is 303 million, the
population growth rate is 0.883, and the infant
mortality rate is 6.3/1000. Males are expected to
live 75 years and females 81 years, and the AIDS
rate is 0.6. Kenyas official languages are
English and Kiswahili. 85.1 of the population
is literate and 6.9 of the GDP is spent on
education. This compares to 99 literacy rates
in the USA and 5.3 of the GDP on education.
Kenyas currency is the Kenyan Shilling, which is
converted at the rate of 79 per US1. Kenyas
gross domestic property by purchasing power
parity is US61.2 billion, with a per capita
amount of US1,700. The unemployment rate in
Kenya is 40. The GDP (PPP) of the USA is 13.78
trillion, the average per capita income is
46,000, and unemployment rates were set at 4.6
(2007). However, interestingly enough, the
distribution of wealth in Kenya is rated at GINI
44.5, which is extremely close to the USAs
distribution of wealth at 45.
According to Kenyas The Standard newspaper,
virtually none of the Sub-Saharan African
countries have truly eliminated leaded gasoline,
especially Kenya. There are several factors
behind this Kenya consumes on an average day
50,000 barrels of gasoline, compared to 2 million
in France and 20.5 in the USA. The average price
of a gallon of gasoline in Nairobi on 12/04/2008
is US3.73. Even though prices have recently
dropped in the USA, the price difference reflects
different fuel taxation structures and
transportation hardship. The two major gasoline
corporations in Kenya are Frances Total with 35
of the market and Shell Kenya (a subsidiary of
Shell and BP International) with 22 of the
market. Total recently acquired Chevron Kenya,
which decided to leave the market. According to
competition rules, Total now has too large of a
percent of the market. Shells 22 market share
gives it 131 retail service stations Total had
only 100 service stations before acquiring
Chevrons large stake in Kenya. Total and
Shell refer to the different types of fuel as
unleaded vs. normal and offer both at most of
their stations. Shells information relating to
leaded versus unleaded gasoline makes it very
clear to its Kenya based customers that unleaded
gasoline does cost more, but many people and
other countries argue it is better to use
unleaded. The major domestic Kenyan gasoline
corporation, Kenol has 11 of the market with 74
stations. Kenol is very upfront about its views
on unleaded gasoline. They offer unleaded at
many, but not all, locations.
Kenya has several issues to work out with leaded
gasoline. First off, they should admit that
their government failed to stop production and
use of leaded gasoline. Then their government
needs to design a campaign to end usage. This
campaign should include programs of public
awareness about lead poisoning, pollution, and
the bad affects on car motors and the associated
repair costs. Then, a new timetable needs to be
set up to phase out leaded gasoline. Unlike in
Europe and the United States where lead was
phased out of gasoline over decades, Kenya does
have to condense the time for reasons of public
safety. Their best plan is to enact greater fuel
taxes on leaded gasoline. With their strong
Revenue Authority, this is absolutely possible.
However, government wrangling is keeping it from
happening. All Kenya needs to do is observe how
other countries did a tax phase out of leaded
gasoline. In Hong Kong, leaded gasoline was made
a dollar more expensive and within a month use
was down 50. However, the government also must
cope with such a low GDP per capita. It will be
hard for people to replace older cars that need
leaded gas, and a system of compensation should
be put in place for that.