Scott W. Tinker President American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bureau of Economic Geology Jackson School of Geosciences The University of Texas at Austin

1
AAPGInternational Conference and ExhibitionCape
Town, South AfricaOctober, 2008
Workforce Observations
Scott W. TinkerPresidentAmerican Association of
Petroleum GeologistsBureau of Economic
GeologyJackson School of GeosciencesThe
University of Texas at Austin
2
Observations

• Demographics
• Cycles
• Balance and Bridges

3
Age Demographics Developing Nations
Brazil '03
India '01
Saudi '04
Mexico '03
Source UN Website
4
Age Demographics Developed Nations
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Age
Russia '04
China '00
France/UK '04
US '04
Source UN Website
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Age Demographics
Developed nations are older
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Age
Developed
Developing
Source UN Website
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Geopolitical Shift
Young
Old
407 Q
Source National Petroleum Council, 2007
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Observations

• Demographics
• Cycles
• Balance and Bridges

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Global Oil
35,000,000
(mbo)
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
Global Annual Production
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Source 1980-2007 Energy Information
Administration As of January 2008
(www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/crudeoilr
eserves.xls ), 1950-1980 OPEC (http//www.opec.or
g/library/)
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Oil and Economy
GDP Growth (Percentage points at annual rates)
10
8
6
4
GDP Growth ( points at annual rates)
2
0
Year
-2
-4
Data BP, EIA February 2007.US Department of
Commerce
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Energy-Economy Cycles

• Global oil demand/supply (D/S) is tight
• Currencies are strong or weak
• Speculators hedge against currencies by buying
  oil
• Tight D/S and speculation drive up the price of
  oil
• High price dampens energy demand
• Lower D/S, excess production capacity (short
  term), weak economy drive oil price down
• Global interdependence impacts global markets
• Lower oil prices help stabilize the economy
• and

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Department of Geosciences, University of
Texas Total Masters
12
Department of Geosciences, University of
Texas Total Ph.D.s
13
Compound Cycles
Year
Data BP, EIA February 2007.US Department of
Commerce
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Observations

• Demographics
• Cycles
• Balance and Bridges

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HOW EASY IS IT TO MANAGE DUAL CAREERS IN THE OIL
AND GAS INDUSTRY?
Percent
Age group
0
20
40
60
80
100
18-24
25-34
35-44
No problems at all
45-54
55
All
18-24
25-34
Difficult but possible
35-44
45-54
55
All
18-24
25-34
Very difficult or impossible
35-44
45-54
55
All
From Chadud, N., Tealdi, L., Howe, S., and
Sprunt, E., 2007, How companies attract and
retain talented engineers whose spouses have
careers, in Talent Technology, v. 1, no. 4, p.
510.
QAd6422
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Dual Career Challenges

• Goal Reverse the trend of decreasing women in
  energy sciences throughout a full career
• Maintaining a science edge in the part time
  years
• Separating what we want to do from what we are
  willing to do
• Reverse discrimination
• Precedent setting and consistency of policies
• Avoiding flexibility dysfunction

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Industry, Government, Academe
Bridge

• Complex global issues pose technological and
  social challenges requiring an integrated
  approach
• Each sector has different time scales for
  decision making, and are motivated by different
  opportunities
• Science, policy and commercialization are
  critical partners for the future
• Bridge across the canyons and peaks

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Summary It Takes a Team!
Policy Maker!
Industry!
Student!
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Summary Concepts

• Fossil fuels are essential for many decades
• Price volatility is likely must enjoy change
• Global demographics are evolving
• Talent is the fundamental priority

Government/industry/academe must work together to
bridge across the cycles in order to create a
stable environment that attracts and retains the
best talent in the world.
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A career in the energy industry is exciting,
challenging, rewarding and at times terrifying!
You cannot find a more meaningful issue on
which to work for the coming century than global
energy. Period. Get after it!
http//www.great-lakes.net/teach/history/macbridge
/mac_2.html