Title: PowerPoint Presentation - Global Change Curricula and Programs at Iowa State University
1Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC
2Climate Change Use of Climate Science in
Decision-making
- Eugene S. Takle
- Professor of Atmospheric Science
- Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
- Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
- Department of Agronomy
- Faculty Director, University Honors Program
- Iowa State University
- Ames, Iowa 50011
- gstakle_at_iastate.edu
Ames High School 6 December 2007
3Outline
- Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide
- Radiative forcing
- Simulations of global climate and future climate
change - Climate change for Iowa and the Midwest
adaptation strategy
Except where noted as personal views or from the
ISU Global Change course or the Iowa
Environmental Mesonet, all materials presented
herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports
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5Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years
Natural cycles
6IPCC Third Assessment Report
7Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2007 380 ppm
8Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2050 550 ppm
9Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Business as Usual 950 ppm
10Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Business as Usual 950 ppm
?
11http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006
/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
12Source IPCC, 2001 Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
13Source IPCC, 2001 Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
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15IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
16El Chichon (1982)
Agung, 1963
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
At present trends the imbalance 1 Watt/m2 in
2018
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
17http//www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/scie
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22Source Corell, R. W., 2004 Impacts of a
warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
(www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
23Kennedy Space Center
Impact of a 1-m rise in sea level on low-lying
areas
Projected sea-level rise In 21st century 0.5 to
1.0 m
Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (3 ft)
rise in sea level
Miami
Source Corell, R. W., 2004 Impacts of a
warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
(www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
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26Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
27An exhibition of old and new photographs at the
Swiss Alpine Museum in Bern documents the gradual
disappearance of Switzerland's glaciers.?The
Rhone glacier with the Hotel Belvedere in the
foreground and the Furka pass, Canton Valais
circa 1906 and 2003?(Pictures Gesellschaft fur
okologische Forschung, Munich)
28http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006
/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
29Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
30Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
31Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Not Natural
32Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Highly Likely Not Natural
Not Natural
33Source Jerry Meehl, National Center for
Atmospheric Research
34Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
35Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is committed to a warming over the
next 50 years regardless of political decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
36Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
Mitigation Possible
Adaptation Necessary
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
37IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
38IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
39Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest
(My tentative assessment)
- Longer frost-free period (high)
- Higher average winter temperatures (high)
- Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
- More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium)
- Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and
winter (high) - More (10) precipitation (medium)
- More variability of summer precipitation (high)
- More intense rain events and hence more runoff
(high) - Higher episodic streamflow (medium)
- Longer periods without rain (medium)
- Higher absolute humidity (high)
- Stronger storm systems (medium)
- Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by
models No current trend but
model suggestion or current trend but models
inconclusive
40Summary
- Climate change of the past 35 years is not
consistent with natural variations over the last
400,000 years - Evidence clearly shows that radiative forcing due
to anthropogenic greenhouse gases has contributed
over half of the warming of the last 35 years - Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed,
will have little effect on global warming until
the latter half of the 21st century - Adaptation strategies should be developed
for the next 50 years - Recent trends and model projections
should be used to develop adaptation
strategies for the next 10 years
EST personal view
41For More Information
- For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything
you have seen in this presentation, see my online
Global Change course - http//www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
- Contact me directly
- gstakle_at_iastate.edu
- Current research on regional climate and climate
change is being conducted at Iowa State Unversity
under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory - http//rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/
- North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
Program - http//www.narccap.ucar.edu/
- For this and other climate change presentations
see my personal website - http//www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/
Or just Google Eugene Takle