Applying Population Ecology: Human Population

1
Applying Population Ecology Human Population

• Ch. 10

2
Demography

• the study of size, structure, and make up of
  human populations. Demographers study the causes
  and important social, health and economic effects
  of population changes.

3
10-1 Factors Affecting Human Population Size

• Population size depends upon
• birth rates
• death rates
• immigration rates (into area)
• emigration rates (exit area)
• Pop. change (b i) - (d e)

4
(No Transcript)
5
Crude Birth and Death Rates

• Instead of measuring births/deaths per year,
  demographers look at crude birth and death rates.
  
• Natality- Number of individuals added through
  reproduction
• Crude Birth Rate - Births per 1000
• Mortality - Number of individuals removed through
  death
• Crude Death Rate - Deaths per 1000

6
Global Population Change

• Death rates have declined, however, not as fast
  as birth rates. Therefore, our global population
  is still increasing, yet at a slower rate.
• More than 82 of the global pop. lives in
  DEVELOPING nations!
• Annual rate of population change () Birthrate
  Death rate x 100
• 1,000 persons
• In 2004, the global growth rate was 1.25
  annually. (80 M people)
• Most developed countries 0.1
• Developing countries - 1.15

7
4 ways to calculate a pop. rate of change ( r )

• Total births - total deaths/ total population
• r 23,452 -17, 228 0.0066 .66
• 942,721
• 2. birth rate (b) -death rate (d)
• r 25 - 18 0.007 0.7
• 1000 1000
• 3. (Total births total immigration) - (total
  deaths total emigration)
• total population
• r (23,452 9842)-(17, 228 2450) 0.014
  1.4
• 942,721
• 4. (birth rate immigration rate) - (death rate
  emigration rate) x 100
• r (25 10) - (18 3) 0.014 1.4
• 1000 1000

Global
Local
8
Determining future Pops

• Remember N (t) N0ert
• N(t) population after t years
• N0 initial population size
• r growth rate
• t time

9
Determine the future population of Duttania

• Remember N (t) N0ert
• The island of Duttania has 435 people. Their
  growth rate is 2. What will be the population
  after 10 years?
• A 531 people.

10
Population Density
of indiv. of a species unit of area
ex. 270,000,000 people 29 people/Km2 in the
US 9,166,605 Km2
11
Doubling Time

• Time to take for a population with a stable
  growth rate to double in size
• Doubling Time
• td 70/ r (growth rate)
• Ex. Brazil will double its population in how many
  years with the present growth rate of 1.7?
• A 70/1.7 41.2 years

12
Doubling Time
13
Demographic Facts

• The nations that will experience the most growth
  over the next 50 years , in order
• India
• China
• Pakistan
• Nigeria
• Bangladesh
• Indonesia

• 5 most populated countries, in order (2004)
• China
• India
• U.S.
• Indonesia
• Brazil

14
Effect of Fertility on Population Growth

• Two types of fertility rates affect a countrys
  pop. size and growth
• 1) Replacement-level fertility (RLF)- number of
  children that a couple should have to replace
  both parents (Developed countries 2.1 , Some
  developing countries 2.5- due to child mortality)

15
Effect of Fertility on Population Growth
continued..

• Total fertility rate (TFR) average number of
  children that a woman will have in her
  reproductive years (0 - 5)
• In 2004, average global TFR was 2.8 / woman. This
  was a decline from 5/woman in 1950. (In 2004,
  Highest TFR was in Africa with average of 5.2)
• Most useful measure of fertility for projecting
  future populations.

16
Global Total Fertility Rates
17
Population growth

• TFR needs to drop to 2.1 in order to stabilize
  the population. (Takes into account infant
  mortality)
• NEED TO REDUCE OF BIRTHS!
• TFR gt RLF pop growth
• TFR RLF steady population
• TFR lt RLF pop slow down

18
10 Factors affecting Birth rate and Fertility rate

• Average level of education and affluence
• Importance of children as a part of the labor
  force
• Urban areas (with access to family planning)
• Cost of raising and educating children
• Education and employment opportunity for women
• Infant mortality rate
• Average age of marriage and 1st child
• Availability of pension system
• Availability of legal abortions
• Birth control/religion

19
Factors affecting Death rate

• Population increase is not necessarily due only
  to increased birth rate, but also decreased death
  rate.
• Life expectancy aver. of years a newborn is
  expected to live
• Infant mortality rate of babies out of
  1000/year who died before their 1st birthday.
• Important measure of quality of life since it is
  linked to so much of society!

20
10-2 Population Age Structure

• The age structure diagram sorts the number of
  people into groups.
• The population is usually divided up into
  
• Prereproductives (not mature enough to reproduce)
• reproductives (capable of reproduction)
• Postreproductives (too old to reproduce)
• The age structure of a population dictates
  whether is will grow, shrink, or stay the same
  size.

21
Age Structure Diagrams
Positive Growth Slow Growth
Negative Growth/ Zero Growth
Pyramid Shape Vertical Edges
Inverted Pyramid
22
Be able to identify potential countries based on
diagrams!
23
10-3 Solutions Influencing Population Size

• Controversy over whether govts. should
  encourage/discourage pop. growth
• China 1 child law
• India limited access to family planning
• Family Planning - providing educational and
  clinical services that help couples choose how
  many children to have and when to have them.

24
Demographic Transition Model
1 Preindustrial
2 Transitional
3 Industrial
4 Post- industrial
25
10-5 Cutting Global Population Growth

• 1994 UN held conference to encourage action in
  stabilizing the global population to 7.8B by
  2050, instead of the projected 8.9B.
• 180 countries agreed to follow the following
  guidelines by 2015
• Provide universal access to family planning
  service and
• reproductive health care
• Improve health care for infants, children and
  pregnant women
• Develop and implement national pop. Policies
• Improve status of women expand educ. for women
  and young girls and job opportunities
• Increase the involvement of men in child rearing
  responsibilities and family planning
• Sharply reduce poverty famine, disease, etc.
• Greatly reduce unsustainable patterns of
  production and consumption

26
10-4 Case Studies of China and India

• Population Paradox movie will cover the details
  
• so take notes!

27
Success Stories

• Thailand intro on p. 176
• Iran p. 190