Several examples on the preparation of SUAs commodities

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Several examples on the preparation of
SUAs commodities James Geehan, Statistician,
FAO Rome
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Example 1 Wheat steps to completing the SUA
account 1. Area, production, imports and exports
are official data. There is no stock change.
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Example 1 Wheat steps to completing the SUA
account 1. Area, production, imports and exports
are official data. There is no stock change. 2.
Yield is calculated by dividing production by
area Yield (Kg/Ha) Production / Area
4,200,000 / 1,645,000 1000 2,533
Kg/Ha
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Example 1 Wheat steps to completing the SUA
account 1. Area, production, imports and exports
are official data. There is no stock change. 2.
Yield is calculated by dividing production by
area. 3. Feed has been estimated on the basis of
information available from the Ministry of
Agriculture.
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Example 1 Wheat steps to completing the SUA
account 1. Area, production, imports and exports
are official data. There is no stock change. 2.
Yield is calculated by dividing production by
area. 3. Feed has been estimated on the basis of
information available from the Ministry of
Agriculture. 4. The quantity of wheat used for
seeding has been calculated by multiplying the
estimated seeding rate with the area harvested in
the subsequent year. The seeding rate is known
to be around 150Kg/Ha Area harvested in year
t1 1,750,000 Ha Seeding rate 150
Kg/Ha Seeding quantity (Mt) (1,750,000 150)
/ 1000 262,500 Mt
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Example 1 Wheat steps to completing the SUA
account 1. Area, production, imports and exports
are official data. There is no stock change. 2.
Yield is calculated by dividing production by
area. 3. Feed has been estimated on the basis of
information available from the Ministry of
Agriculture. 4. The quantity of wheat used for
seeding has been calculated by multiplying the
estimated seeding rate with the area harvested in
the subsequent year. The seeding rate is known
to be around 150Kg/Ha. 6. Waste has been
estimated by industry experts to be around
5 Waste Supply (Production Imports Stock
change) 0.05 (4,200,000
50,000) 0.05 212,500 Mt
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Example 1 Wheat steps to completing the SUA
account 1. Area, production, imports and exports
are official data. There is no stock change. 2.
Yield is calculated by dividing production by
area. 3. Feed has been estimated on the basis of
information available from the Ministry of
Agriculture. 4. The quantity of wheat used for
seeding has been calculated by multiplying the
estimated seeding rate with the area harvested in
the subsequent year. The seeding rate is known
to be around 150Kg/Ha. 5. Waste has been
estimated by industry experts to be around 5. 6.
There is no information as to the direct food use
of wheat or other use. The SUA is completed by
allocating the balance of the account to
processing Residual balance (Processing)
(Production Imports Stock Change)
(Exports Feed Seed Waste Food Other
use)
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Example 2 Flour of wheat steps to completing the
SUA account 1. The quantity of Wheat processed is
used as the input for the production of Flour of
Wheat.
Wheat
Flour of Wheat
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• Example 2 Flour of wheat steps to completing the
  SUA account
• The quantity of Wheat processed is used as the
  input for the production of Flour of Wheat.
• The production is estimated by applying an
  extraction rate (milling rate in this case) of
  80 as reported by industry agencies.

Flour of Wheat
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• Example 2 Flour of wheat steps to completing the
  SUA account
• The quantity of Wheat processed is used as the
  input for the production of Flour of Wheat.
• The production is estimated by applying an
  extraction rate (milling rate in this case) of
  80 as reported by industry agencies.
• Import and export data are reported officially
  and entered into the SUA.

Flour of Wheat
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• Example 2 Flour of wheat steps to completing the
  SUA account
• The quantity of Wheat processed is used as the
  input for the production of Flour of Wheat.
• The production is estimated by applying an
  extraction rate (milling rate in this case) of
  80 as reported by industry agencies.
• Import and export data are reported officially
  and entered into the SUA.
• Waste is estimated at 3 by industry experts.

Flour of Wheat
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• Example 2 Flour of wheat steps to completing the
  SUA account
• The quantity of Wheat processed is used as the
  input for the production of Flour of Wheat.
• The production is estimated by applying an
  extraction rate (milling rate in this case) of
  80 as reported by industry agencies.
• Import and export data are reported officially
  and entered into the SUA.
• Waste is estimated at 3 by industry experts.
• There is no information on processing, stock
  change or other use. Food is left as the
  residual balancing element.

Flour of Wheat
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• Example 3 Cow Milk steps to completing the SUA
  account
• The SUA for Cow Milk has already been completed.
  We know that there are two derived products
  Cream, and Butter.

Cow Milk
Cream
Butter
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• Example 3 Cow Milk steps to completing the SUA
  account
• The SUA for Cow Milk has already been completed.
  We know that there are two derived products
  Cream, and Butter.
• Cream production and extraction rate are known,
  so the Input can be calculated. Waste is
  estimated at 2. The residual balance is sent to
  food.

Cow Milk
Cream
Butter
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• Example 3 Cow Milk steps to completing the SUA
  account
• The SUA for Cow Milk has already been completed.
  We know that there are two derived products
  Cream, and Butter.
• Cream production and extraction rate are known,
  so the Input can be calculated. Waste is
  estimated at 2. The residual balance is sent to
  food.
• The remaining processing can be assigned as input
  to Butter. Production can then be calculated,
  and waste is the residual balancing element.

Cow Milk
Cream
Butter
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• Common problems in constructing SUAs
• Inconsistencies between data sources,
  particularly between official and non-official
  sources.
• Unrealistic increases / decreases in food and
  calorie/fat/protein per caput intake.
• Statistical discrepancies (positive or
  negative) imbalances in the Supply and
  Utilization elements. Generally due to either
  missing data or inconsistencies in the data
  input.
• Lack of data or information to be able to
  accurately estimate SUA elements for individual
  commodities.

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• Problem 1 Inconsistencies in the data sources
• Yield of Barley is too high, but is derived from
  area and production.
• Production is taken from official data area
  harvested from non-official data.
• The extraction of rate (yield) of Barley is also
  known at 8,550 hg/Mt.

• Possible solution?
• Reject the non-official figure for area
  harvested. The production is official and the
  yield rate is known, so the area harvested can be
  estimated.
• Barley yield can then be adjusted automatically
  to more realistic levels.

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Recall that Yield Production / Area
Harvested If rate of Yield is known, then
Area Harvested Production / Yield
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• Problem 2 Unrealistic increases/decreases in
  food
• There appears to be an inconsistency in the
  official export data for Tomatoes, and the level
  of food available for consumption.
• Food is the balancing element in the commodity.
  Unless the level of food is reduced, food
  consumption will be too high and calorie intake
  over-estimated for Tomatoes.

• Possible solution?
• Modify the official Trade Data although this
  is avoided whenever possible.
• Assign the export deficit to Other Uses to
  match the published level of exports.
• Food will automatically be reduced as it is the
  balancing element.

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• Problem 3 Statistical Discrepencies
• There is a statistical discrepancy in trade data
  of Dry Beet Pulp as a result of an imbalance
  between import and export figures.
• There is an imbalance of -8(Mt) and there is no
  domestic production to cover the shortfall in
  exports.

• Possible solutions?
• The problem may be related to the data (e.g.,
  imports for re-export may only be counted in the
  export field. Or an export quantity may have
  been incorrectly assigned to the wrong
  commodity).
• The export or import figures could be adjusted
  if we have more information on the quality of the
  data, or how they coded in the trade commodity
  classification.
• If the discrepancy is not too large, it can be
  ignored. There will be no effect on per caput
  intake as the commodity is not sent to food.

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• Problem 4
• Production and Imports cannot cover official
  levels of food. How do we meet the level of
  utilization?

• Possible solutions?
• Take from stocks to cover food levels.
• However, note whether there is trend in stocks.
  Continually taking from stocks suggests there is
  a problem with the Supply elements data.

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Thank you for your attention