Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Cooperative Efforts Can Drive Down the Accident Rate European Civil Aviation Conference One Hundred and Twenty-Fourth Meeting of the Directors General of Civil Aviation Margaret Gilligan Government

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Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
Cooperative Efforts Can Drive Down the Accident
Rate European Civil Aviation ConferenceOne
Hundred and Twenty-Fourth Meeting of the
Directors General of Civil Aviation Margaret
GilliganGovernment Co-Chair, CASTDecember 7,
2005
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Accident Rates in the U.S. and Western Europe
Have Dropped Dramatically Over the Years
Current accident rates are incredibly
low Challenge is to drive them lower
U. S. Part 121-Type Operations 1946 To 2004
Accidents Per Million Flight Hours
Accident Rate
Fatal Accident Rate
Note 2004 is based on a pro-rata of data through
May, 2004.
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History Shows New Capabilities and Appropriately
Focused Actions Reduced Accident Rate
Pressurized Aircraft into fleet (L-049, DC-6
B-377) Earliest ILS (Glide slope, LOC markers)
Broad implementation of VOR and DME Radar
introduced at selected towers Vickers-700
Turboprop (1953 in UK, 1956 US) DC-7 (1955),
Lockheed Electra Radio contact, ATC centers
cruise aircraft 1949-55
Long-Range radar (Centers) Jet Engine 707 (1958)
DC-8 VOR/DME integrated into autopilot
(precision approaches) Secondary radar
Major Fatal Accidents Per Million Departures

FMS CRM 6-Axis Simulator FDR Windshear Cabin
Safety
RNAV (processing VOR/DME basic
Instruments) GPWS, TCAS Early automation
FOQA/ASAP ATC Data RJ Revolution New Large
Jets Cooperative safety agenda
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Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

• Ongoing Industry and FAA Safer Skies Initiatives
  were combined into CAST
• Data-Driven, Consensus-Based, Integrated
  Strategic Safety Plan Developed
• In place and fully supported by Government and
  Industry with Worldwide Recognition - CAST

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CAST Goals

• Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal
  accident rate by 80 by 2007
• Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA,
  FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations
  and appropriate regulatory/ government
  authorities to reduce worldwide commercial
  aviation fatal accident rate

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Govt and Industry Focused ActionLed to Dramatic
Reduction in Wind Shear Accidents
Training/ Pilot Guide
Reactive Wind Shear Systems
Enhancements
R
Predictive Wind Shear Systems
1970
75
80
2000
90
85
95
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The CAST Agenda Was Developed to Address the
Major Types of Accidents That Have Occurred in
the Past
1.999
Total Fatalities 5,828 (5,530 onboard)
1,599
2004 fatalities 186 (186 onboard)
Fatalities
420
155
368
339
348
31
225
231
136
119
89
25
3
13
2
0
1
CFIT
In-flight fire
Mid-air collision
Fuel tank explosion
Landing
Takeoff config- uration
Fuel exhaustion
Wind shear
Runway incursion
Loss of control in flight
Unknown
RTO
Misc. fatality
Structure
Takeoff
Ice/Snow/Heavy Rain
Turbulence
Number of fatal accidents 91 total
0
21
2
3
2
15
1
2
2
1
22
5
2
8
2
2
1
CFIT Controlled Flight Into Terrain
RTO Refused Takeoff 2004 is based on
Preliminary Data.
Note Accidents involving multiple, non-onboard
fatalities are included
Accidents involving single, non-onboard
fatalities are excluded Fatalities/accidents are
placed in one category only.
3-2-05 AT-071
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CAST Organizational Structure
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CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively
develop implement a prioritized safety agenda
Industry
Government
AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing GE RAA
FSF

• DOD
• FAA
• Aircraft Certification
• Flight Standards
• Air Traffic Operations
• Research
• NASA
• ICAO
• JAA
• TCCA
• NATCA
• NTSB
• EASA

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
IATA AAPA ATAC APFA
Representing PW and RR Observer
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Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
CAST
Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT)

• Data analyses

• Safety enhancement development

Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT)

• Master safety plan
• Enhancement effectiveness
• Future areas of study

Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis
Team (JIMDAT)
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Safety Analysis Process
1.
NTSB Accident Incident Reports
2.
21.3 Reports
NASDAC data
Airclaims data
Historical Data
FOQA data
Pareto Plots JSAT
Industry
JSAT
3.
Threat
Accident
4.
Combined Threat
Causal Analysis
Intervention Strategy
Cause
Cause
Cause
Cause
5.
JSAT
JSAT
7.
Industry
Safer Skies
6.
Government
Implementation Strategy JSIT
AvSP
Measuring Progress to Goal
Coordinated Plan
5.3-23
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Safety Metrics Examples
Safety Enhancement Indicator
1. Terrain Avoidance Warning System (TAWS) Reduction in MSAW alerts Reduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT)
4. CFIT PAI-Vertical Angles (7-11,18) Percentage of operators who have adopted constant angle approaches Continuous reduction in selected metrics
21. ALAR Flight Deck Equipment Upgrades New Type Designs (1-3) Reduction in number of inadvertent descents below decision height
23. ALAR Flight Crew Training one project Continuous reduction in the number of busted approach gates Continuous reduction in altitude busts
27. LOC Policies and Procedures Risk Assessments and Management one project Percentage of operators/manufacturers with risk assessment/management processes in place Continuous reduction in the number of operations with recurring intermittent failures in flight critical systems Percentage of operators with a process to include safety information in manuals
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Resource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction
10000
100
APPROVED PLAN
Risk Reduction
9000
Total Cost in (Millions)
8000
75
7000
6000
Risk Eliminated by Safety Enhancements
50
5000
Resource Cost ( Millions)
2007
2020
4000
3000
25
2000
1000
0
0
All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020
Implementation Level)
Completed
Completed Plan (2020 Implementation Level)
Completed Plan (2007 Implementation Level)
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Cost Savings
Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull
Loss Accidents
100
Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle
80
Savings 56/Flight Cycle Or 620 Million
Dollars/Year
Dollars/Flt. Cyc
60
73 Risk reduction
40
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Cost of accident fatalities following
implementation of the CAST plan _at_ 2007 levels
0
2002
2007
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All Regions Combined
Hull Loss Fatal World Wide Accidents
Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan
is Adopted World Wide
(2007 Implementation Values)
100
90
80
70
60
Portion of Risk
50
40
30
20
10
0
RI
ICE
RE
ARC
Total
CFIT
LOC-I
FUEL
USOS
ADRM
Midair
FIRE-NI
SCF-PP
SCF-NP
WSTRW
OTHER-BIRD
Accident Classes Defined by CAST/ICAO Common
Taxonomy
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CAST Shared Safety Products Have Contributed to
Accident Fatality Risk Reduction Worldwide
Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by
airline domicile, 1994 through 2004
COSCAP CIS Early stages
JSSI 35 SEs 62 reduction
C.I.S.1
Europe - 0.7
United States and Canada 0.4
COSCAP Asia 27 SEs in work (China) 60 reduction
China 0.5
CAST 47 SEs 73 reduction
Middle East 2.7
Asia 1.7
(Excluding China)
Africa 12.3
Latin America and Caribbean 2.4
ASET Early stages
Oceania 0.0
PAAST CFIT and ALAR
World 0.74
Accidents per million departures (2004 rate)
(1 insufficient fleet experience to generate
reliable rate)
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The Aviation System is Undergoing Significant
Change
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Our Future Focus Must be Guided by
HazardsIdentified Through Safety Information
Sharing and Problems and Solutions Addressed by a
Cooperative Industry/Government Approach

• Effectiveness metrics
• System monitoring for emerging risks and dynamic
  changes
• Isolated data sources combined and leveraged
  through extensive data sharing

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Isolated Data Sources Can Be Combined to Leverage
the Power of Safety Info. Data Sharing
PDARS
FOQA
Other
ASAP
ASRS
Legacy
Weather
NASDAC
Highlight Possible Safety Issues
ROMAN
MRO
COS DATA
VASIP
ECCAIRS
NAOMS
Firewall
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Conclusions

• CAST has an effective data-driven process
• CAST brings together all the key players
• Air Carriers
  Manufacturers
• Employee Groups Government
• Predicted 73 risk reduction by 2007
• CAST is committed to worldwide participation
• CAST is moving to develop proactive processes to
  identify changing and emerging risks
• History shows focused action and introduction of
  new capabilities have led to large accident rate
  reductions
• Joint industry and government teams working
  together to a common agenda can further enhance
  the safety of our very safe aviation system. Can
  we meet the challenge?

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