Development and Applications of Systems for Modeling Emissions and Smoke from Fires: The BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework, SMARTFIRE, and Associated Systems

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Development and Applications of Systems for
Modeling Emissions and Smoke from Fires The
BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework, SMARTFIRE, and
Associated Systems

• Prepared by Lyle R. Chinkin1, Tara Strand2,
  Timothy Brown3, Scott Goodrick4, Sim Larkin2,
  Sean M. Raffuse1, Robert Solomon2, Dana C.
  Sullivan1, Pete Lahm5
• 1Sonoma Technology, Inc., Petaluma, CA
• 2 U.S. Forest Service AirFire Team, Seattle, WA
• 3Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV
• 4U.S. Forest Service Southern High Resolution
  Modeling Consortium, Athens, GA5U.S. Forest
  Service, Washington, DC
• Presented at the National Air Quality Conference
• Dallas, TX
• March 2-5, 2009

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Outline

• Fire and smoke modeling in general
• BlueSky Framework
• SMARTFIRE
• SMARTFIRE calibration comparison analyses
• BlueSky Gateway resources
• Applications
• National Emissions Inventory (NEI)
• California Emergency Smoke Response Systems
  (ESRS) 2007 and 2008
• Air Quality Impacts Planning Tool (AQUIPT)

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Basics of Smoke Application
WEATHER PREDICTIONS
FIRE INFO
SMOKE TRAJECTORIES and CONCENTRATIONS
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Fire Emissions and Smoke ModelingFacilitated by
BlueSky Framework
Meteorological Input
SMARTFIREICS-209 Rx Sys Manual Other
MM5 WRF NAM NARR Other
FCCS NFDRS HardyLANDFIREAg Other
CONSUME 3 FOFEMFEPS EPM ClearSky
(Ag)Satellite Other
Rx / WF FEPSFOFEM EPMWRAPIdealizedManualOther

FEPSLiteratureEPMFOFEMOther
BriggsMulti-coreDaysmoke Other
CalPuffHYSPLITCMAQGEMAQ
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SMARTFIRE Reconciled Fire Data
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Fire Emissions (SMARTFIRE)
Satellite Mapping Automatic Reanalysis Tools for
Fire Incident Reconciliation

• Integrates and reconciles ICS-209 data with
  satellite-detected fire data to provide daily
  burn-area predictions to BlueSky
• Available as a web service

The Hazard Mapping System (HMS) detects more
burning than is reported by ICS-209
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Wildfire Area Burned Estimates
Wildfire Test Locations
For the largest fires examined, SMARTFIRE final
footprints match very well with final ICS-209
area estimates. SMARTFIRE tends to overestimate
area burned for smaller wildfires. This
relationship appears independent of ecosystem or
fuel type.
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Smaller Fires

• ICS-209 report information is not available for
  many small fires
• Agricultural burns
• Prescribed fires
• Rangeland fires
• Small wildfires
• For these fires, available data sets will be used
  to validate SMARTFIRE.
• The large-scale pattern of satellite detects
  matches fairly well with this single day of fires
  from a Florida fire database.
• Mismatches may be due to satellite false detects,
  satellite non-detects, or database errors.

March 8, 2007
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Differences Between MODIS and HMS

• Because HMS includes GOES- and AVHRR-derived fire
  pixels in addition to MODIS, it detects more
  fires overall
• This is especially true in the southeast, where
  fires are often small and/or short lived
• In addition to the increased coverage, HMS
  provides human quality control

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SMARTFIRE vs. MODIS vs. ICS-209 Area Burned
Erroneous 209 report
Few 209 reports HMS benefits from multiple
satellites and human QC
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SMARTFIRE vs. MODIS vs. ICS-209 PM2.5 Emissions
Emissions modeled with CONSUME 3 and FEPS
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CMAQ Smoke Modeling System on BlueSky Gateway

• Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model
• National-International 36-km resolution domain
• Several data layers to track smoke from various
  fire types
• Preserves carryover from previous days
  simulation
• Full chemistry for secondary pollutant formation
  (e.g., particles and ozone)
• More information at www.getbluesky.org

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SMARTFIRE Resources on BlueSky Gateway
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Visualization with Google Earth
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Southern California 2007 ESRS

• Requested by USDA to supplement other sources
  (e.g., National Weather Service NWS)
• SMARTFIRE fire info
• CMAQ and CALPUFF model outputs (plus NWS HYSPLIT)
• Uses
• USFS fire resource managers
• EPA Smog Stories
• USDA press releases
• White House briefing

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Photochemical Modeling for 2008 ESRS

• Ensure existing systems up-times
• Automate contingencies
• Automate notifications and monitoring systems
• Deploy routine twice-daily predictions
• Produce visual range (new), PM2.5, and ozone
• Customize modeling domain

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Daily Smoke Forecasts for 2008 ESRS Examples
of Use
California Air Resources Board uses graphic in
news release on August 18, 2008
(http//www.arb.ca.gov/newsrel/nr062308b.htm).
North Coast Unified Air Quality Management
District
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Fire Impact Potential (FIP)

• FIP is a method for assigning relative smoke
  contributions from several fires.
• FIP for each fire is calculated as the product of
  transport probability and smoke emissions.
• FIP for all fires is summed and normalized to 100
  to produce relative contributions.

Hells Half
Cub
Canyon
MEU Lightning
Sacramento FIP Contribution for July 10, 2008
Fire Complex Contribution ()
MEU Lightning 32
Cub 26
Hells Half 18
Canyon 7
Other fires 17
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Fire Impact Potential
July 10, 2008

• FIP was calculated for several California cities.
• In this plot, FIP results are combined with
  modeled surface concentrations and population
  data to estimate total population exposure to
  smoke.
• FIP analysis can be performed for other
  locations, such as air quality monitors, fire
  camps, or sensitive population areas.

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AQUIPT Climatological Modeling of Smoke
Impacts

• Facilitated by the BlueSky Framework
• Requires basic source information as inputs
• Uses 1979-2006climatology
• Provides statisticalanswer to what would have
  happened?
• 24-hr turnaround
• Improved graphics in the near future

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Thank You
Funding from National Fire Plan, USDA CSREES NRI,
USFS, Joint Fire Science Program, EPA, DOI, and
NASA. Our many collaborators and partners,
including Mark Ruminski (NOAA's HMS) Amber Soja
(National Institute of Aerospace) Tom Pace
(EPA) Pete Lahm (USFS) Susan O'Neill (Natural
Resources Conservation Service) and Tweak Films.
Sean Raffuse(707) 665-9900sraffuse_at_sonomatech.co
m
Narasimhan (Sim) Larkin (206)
732-7849larkin_at_fs.fed.us