Debating Effective Solution for Water Constrained Future of Pakistan

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Debating Effective Solution for Water Constrained
Future of Pakistan Dr. Zaigham Habib
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• Water Debate
• Pakistan in Global Context
• Natural Water Scenario
• Understanding Future Constraints
• Some of the Solutions

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• Need for a Debate
• Debate, dialogue and consultation - different
  communication processes
• Debate (argue, question, disagree, learn)
  scientific issue specific, leads to opinion
  formation selection of solutions
• Dialogue (discourse, convey) bringing close
  diverse interests and stakeholders
• Consultation (discuss, exchange ideas, get 2nd
  opinion) - a tool to refine solutions

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• Lack of Debates in water Sector
• Argue, question, disagree ? formulate solutions
  and options
• Diverse technical opinions are least discussed
  leading to limited solutions and narrow
  perceptions
• Scientific options not taken neutrally
• Too much consumed by the fear of talking about
  bad solutions/ options
• A dilemma of not accepting scientific diversity

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Fresh Water Global Picture
Where is this 0.5 of fresh water? 106 km3
stored in aquifers. 11.9 103 km3 net rainfall
falling after accounting for evaporation.
91103 km3 in natural lakes 5 103 km3 in man
made storage -7 fold increase since 1950. 2,120
km3 in rivers constantly replaced from rainfall
and melting snow and ice.
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Physical water scarcity --
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A water based Economy ---
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Irrigation per Hectare close to World Average
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Physical and economic water scarcity
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Per capita Eastern rivers Groundwater catchments
Some Facts Area 803,940 km2 Population 160
million Climate Arid variable rainfall, river
inflows groundwater quality
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Gross Available Water Rainfall Avg. 45
MAF (30 to 90 MAF) Rivers Inflow 135 MAF
(average 1978 2006) Groundwater 50 to 60
MAF
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Decrease of Eastern Inflow from India as a
result of Indus Water Treaty
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Changed Ecology along the Rivers The riverine
natural vegetation and non-irrigated agriculture
is replaced by the well irrigation. The flood
based forest have severely damaged during recent
drought years
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Increased uses from rivers and decreased drainage
inflow can cause local floods
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Groundwater Aquifer Many issues Actual
potential Limited monitoring grid Sustainability
of use patterns High value for farmers Control
mechanism
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Demand in 2025 crossing total availability
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• Water Constrained Future
• Permanent Physical Scarcity - population
• Most of the water has already been utilized
• Natural water cushions depleting
• Water based economy high manpower, low
  productivity
• Hydropower, a most efficient user dependent on
  surface storages
• New water use sectors are emerging
• Skewed spatio-temporal water availability and
  potential
• Climate Changes

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Towards Solutions
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• Meeting demands of Socio economic and environment
  sectors
• Solution in hand - surface storage
• Good Scope for hydropower
• Limited water for agriculture from storage
• Domestic infrastructure big claimers in future
• Environmental needs an essential area to be
  considered

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Expanding Management Approaches
Conventional Linear cause-effect solutions
Scope limited, problems deep-rooted
Replicability assuming neutral
Context (conservation drainage technologies,
farm practices, crops selection etc.) Complex
drivers of change and management Comprehensive
adaptive Manage the Cause as well Protect
resource base and long term resilience Effective
demand management Diversification of
water-intensive production
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• Protect Natural Water Cycle and Resource Base
  in quantity
• Trans-boundary waters - expanding strategy
• Sacrosanct Indus Water Treaty cannot stop India
  from planning 11 projects on western rivers
• Establish need of western flood water in Pakistan
• Let people talk about negative impacts of IWT on
  Pakistan side
• Natural Water cycle must be maintained for
  resilience
• Protect all water bodies rivers, lakes and flood
  plains
• Groundwater aquifer artificial recharge in
  fresh zone
• minimize/drain effluent in saline area

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• Quality Management and control
• Many Grey Areas
• Industrial and urban effluents to rivers and
  lakes treat at source, reuse
• waste water treatment set examples
• Drainage management lessons learned?
• Drainage functions of rivers and main canals
• Groundwater quality exact issue ?
• Leaching of agri lands
• Excess water used in saline areas

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• Productivity of water in Agriculture
• Conservation - canal lining big initiative, 50
  complete
• Field level water efficient technologies new
  initiative
• Value addition increasing trends
• Talking about green to gene revolution
• Yet,
• The yield of major crops stagnant
• Uncertainty for farmers has increased
• Public sector investments increasing and essential

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• Food security Agriculture
• National policy about produce, market and trade
• Food security important because of declining
  production of wheat in USA Australia,
• Within Pakistan traditional grain areas are
  shifting towards oil seeds, vegetables, fruits
  maize
• A link between livelihood oriented small marginal
  farming and food grain production consistent
• Potential of rain-fed and saline areas

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wheat Rice Cotton sugarcane Maize
World 2.91 4.0 1.95 65.6 4.75
Punjab India 4.39 3.40 0.31 60.96 2.49
India average 2.67 3.0 0.8 69.95 1.9
China 4.23 6.27 3.38 66.01 5.1
Egypt 6.01 9.5 2.6 61.95 8.0
Pakistan 2.59 2 2.3 48.91 2.85
Average Crop Yields in Pakistan and other
Countries tons/hectare 2005
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• Meeting Agriculture Targets
• Economically feasible agriculture model for small
  farms (inputs, technologies, markets)
• Protect high efficiency groundwater -recharge
• Crop zoning
• Low water use and salinity tolerant crops
• Livestock sub-sector
• New opportunities for rural labor force shifting
  from farming agro-based industry, local business

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• Domestic, infrastructure supplies
• A big future Challenge
• Safe drinking water promised to all
• Municipal supplies to big cities, semi-urban and
  advance rural areas
• New infrastructure and down developments

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• From where this water will come?
• Main storages needs for allocation, transfer
  from agriculture
• From Existing canal system some allocations in
  saline areas, more will be required for new
  projects
• Local surface resources small rivers, lakes
  replacement or protection
• Groundwater largest access, quality and
  quantity threatened

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• Approach for domestic supply management
• Protect quality of all water resources
• Priority to local resources
• Allocate and account all uses
• Demand side measures can not be postponed
• Capacity of household appliances
• Rain harvesting wherever possible
• Control on infrastructure, commercial uses
• Household waste management
• Pricing

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Regional Context NWFP high allocations after
seventies, natural drainage collapsing, pollution
of water bodies, local water access. Lower
Indus Saline, waterlogged, low rainfall,
riverine cultivation not sustainable, shift
towards perennial crops, livelihood dependence on
wetlands, lakes unallocated resources high,
demand for delta Punjab water shortage in
cash crop areas, cultivation extending outside
canal irrigated area, groundwater depleting,
recharge sources decreasing, rivers pollution and
dry conditions. Balochistan groundwater fast
depleting, local harvesting not reliable,
domestic and sanitation
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• Sustainable Future
• Protectionist approach (how, where, why ???)
• Actions at regional, local and users levels
  (water-wise societies, incentives, capacities and
  regulation)
• National capacity to define issues and select
  sustainable solutions (drivers of management)
• Knowledge to integrate empirical trends and
  scientific models (who needs it? Public sector,
  users, donors?)

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Thank You