2002 Base 5 PM-2.5 Emissions and Preliminary PM-2.5 CMAQ Base 4 vs Base 5 Model Performance Evaluation

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2002 Base 5 PM-2.5 Emissions and Preliminary
PM-2.5 CMAQ Base 4 vs Base 5 Model Performance
Evaluation

• June 4, 2007
• St. Louis Modeling Workgroup Meeting

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2002 Base 5 Emissions Changes - Point Sources

• Incorporated CENRAP Base G inventory
• Corrected stacks and coordinates
• Added sources previously missing in Arkansas
• Updated SO2 emissions for Noranda Aluminum in
  Missouri
• Incorporated VISTAS Base G inventory
• Removed agricultural ammonia emissions that were
  double-counted with MRPO area source ag ammonia
  inventory
• Fixed day-of-week temporal issue with Missouri
  EGUs

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2002 Base 5 Emissions Changes - Non-Point Sources

• Onroad mobile
• Incorporated EW Gateway VMT data for St. Louis
  NAA counties
• Corrected M6 inputs for MO-side St. Louis NAA
  counties
• Area sources
• Applied transport factors to CENRAP dust
  emissions
• Added missing MN dust emissions construction,
  mining, ag tilling
• Fixed hour-of-day temporal issue with ag ammonia

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2002 Annual Point Source NOx SO2 Emissions -
Selected CENRAP VISTAS States
Note MRPO, WRAP, MANE-VU point source
inventories did not change from Base 4 to Base 5.
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2002 Annual Agricultural NH3 Emissions -CENRAP
States
Note The double-counting of ag ammonia
emissions in the point and area inventories only
occurred in KS, MO, NE, and OK.
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2002 Summer Weekday Onroad Mobile Emissions -
Illinois and Missouri
Note For all states except Illinois and
Missouri, onroad mobile emissions did not change
from Base 4 to Base 5.
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2002 Annual Dust PM-2.5 Emissions - CENRAP States
Note For states outside CENRAP, dust emissions
did not change significantly from Base 4 to Base
5.
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St. Louis PM2.5 MPE

• 2002 Base 5 Annual Emissions Changes
• St. Louis Monitoring Networks
• Federal Reference Method (FRM) for total PM2.5
  mass
• 16 sites in and near St. Louis (only 9 used)
• Speciated Trends Network (STN)
• Speciated PM2.5 SO4, NO3, EC, OC, other PM2.5

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St. Louis Monitoring Networks
STN Site
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PM2.5 36km 12km Species for Q1 at Blair St.
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PM2.5 36km 12km Species for Q1 at Blair St.
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PM2.5 36km 12km Species for Q1 at Blair St.
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PM2.5 36km 12km for Q1 at Blair St.
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PM2.5 36km 12km Species for Q3 at Blair St.
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PM2.5 36km 12km Species for Q3 at Blair St.
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PM2.5 36km 12km Species for Q3 at Blair St.
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PM2.5 36km 12km for Q3 at Blair St.
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PM2.5 36km at all STN Stations (2-3)
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PM2.5 Other STN 36km for Q1-Q4
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PM2.5 FRM at Margaretta 36km for Q1-Q4
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PM2.5 36km MPE at all FRM Stations (9)
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Conclusions

• The largest performance change between Base4 and
  Base5 occurred in PM2.5 Other
• Statistically, Q1 Q4 improved and Q2 Q3 did
  not (all predictions were lower)
• No substantive changes in model performance for
  SO4, OC, EC, NH3 and NO3
• Poor performance for Organic Carbon and Nitrate
  remain an issue

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Recommendations

• Assess reasonableness of seasonal dust (crustal
  PM2.5) profiles
• Update biogenic emissions using new MEGAN model
• Incorporate updated speciation profiles (CB-05)

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PM2.5 Control

• PM2.5 Implementation Rule
• Attainment date extension
• Potential need
• Projected Year
• RFP demonstrations
• RACT demonstrations
• Tightening of growth/control assumptions used
  in 8-hour ozone SIP
• Pollutants of concern
• Regional vs. local control

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2009 Base 5 Controls

• Point Sources
• NOx SIP Call rule
• MACT standard
• IL NOx RACT
• CAIR Trading Program (IPM 2.1.9)
• Onroad and Offroad Mobile
• Tier 2 rule (light-duty vehicle engine standards
  and low-sulfur gasoline)
• Heavy-duty diesel engine standards and low-sulfur
  diesel
• Tier 4 rule (offroad mobile engine standards)
• I/M and RFG

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Preliminary 2002-2009 SO2 Emissions Missouri and
Illinois Totals
Note All 2002 and 2009 emissions are from Base
5 except onroad mobile onroad mobile emissions
are from Base 4.
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Preliminary 2002-2009 NOx Emissions Missouri and
Illinois Totals
Note All 2002 and 2009 emissions are from Base
5 except onroad mobile onroad mobile emissions
are from Base 4.
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Preliminary 2002-2009 VOC Emissions Missouri and
Illinois Totals
Note All 2002 and 2009 emissions are from Base
5 except onroad mobile onroad mobile emissions
are from Base 4.
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Big SO2 Sources in St. Louis NAA (TPY)
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PM2.5 Control Rulemaking Schedule

• For the purposes of Missouris rulemaking
  schedule, decisions need to occur this summer
• These include pollutants of concern
  identification, RACT determinations, RFP
  findings, and attainment demonstration