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Greening the Automotive Sector

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Greening the Automotive Sector Are Hybrids Green? A Life Cycle Assessment Approach Chuck Hostovsky, PhD, MCIP, RPP Sessional Lecturer 2 University of Toronto – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Greening the Automotive Sector

1
Greening the Automotive Sector Are Hybrids
Green? A Life Cycle Assessment Approach

Chuck Hostovsky, PhD, MCIP, RPP
Sessional Lecturer 2 University of Toronto
GGR335 Oct. 7, 2010
Originally presented at the Canadian Association
of Geographers conference, Oct. 2009

2
Lecture readings

UNEP chapter 3
Reid R. Heffner, Kenneth S. Kurani, Thomas S.
Turrentine. 2007. Symbolism in Californias
early market for hybrid electric vehicles.
Transportation Research D, 12, pp. 396413.
Hostovsky, C. draft 2010. Hybrid and Electric
Automobiles Implications to Transportation
Demand Management, Robbins, Paul, Mulvaney,
Dustin, and Golson, J. Geoffrey (eds.). Green
Society Toward a Sustainable Future, Volume 10
Green Technology. Online SAGE.

3
Hypothesis

Increased popularity of hybrids is largely based
on an image of environmental friendliness
resulting from deep corporate green-washing,
rather than empirical evidence of environmental
superiority. As a result hybrid owners are
increasing their VMT due to the conservation
rebound effect.
Furthermore, some governments are providing
economic incentives, allowing SOV in HOV lanes,
and creating other initiatives to promote hybrids
that may be counter-productive to transportation
demand management (TDM) and transit-oriented
development (TOD).

Old paradigm - adjust roads and vehicles, not
driver behavior (VTPI) New - improve system
diversity and efficiency Generate alternatives to
single occupancy commuter travel (get people out
of their cars)
4
Research questions

Are hybrids environmentally superior to
conventional internal combustion engine motor
vehicles?
Is hybrid advertising green-washing?
Do hybrid owners become environmentally smug?
Is there evidence of the conservation rebound
effect exhibited by hybrid owners?
What is the relationship between hybrid ownership
and TDM?
In the long run, will increased popularity of
hybrid and AEV affect the move toward TOD in
urban planning (smart growth) due to perceived
improved freeway LOS?

5
Methods

Literature search
Thematic analysis of hybrid commercials and
advertising
Focus group facilitation
Metronuaghts Transit Un-conference, McMaster
University, Hamilton, ON, Session Facilitator
Hybrid and Green Vehicles Implications for
Transit Oriented Development, May 3, 2008.
Near future arranging focus groups with a
Toronto and Burlington Toyota dealers (suburban
versus city hybrid owners)

6
Trend - sales increasing
300 Canada 2004 2006 Still less than 5
market J.D. Power predicts U.S. hybrid sales to
triple by 2015
http//www.motorauthority.com/blog/1024598_j-d-pow
er-predicts-u-s-diesel-and-hybrid-sales-to-triple-
by-2015
http//www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts
/2009_fotw598.html
7
De Rigueur
Becoming de rigueur to own a hybrid for
celebrities and politicians Lifestyle Magazine,
2007
8
Juxtapose carbon footprint of Jens new 10,000
sq. ft. estateOK Magazine 2008
9
What the presidential candidates drive
www.greendaily.com/2008/01/19/what-the-presidenti
al-candidates-drive/

Associated Press queried the candidates about
what cars they drive
Republicans
Mike Huckabee A 2007 Chevy Tahoe as their
family's main car and his personal car is a
Chevrolet Silverado truck (16 mpg and 12 mpg).
John McCain His wife drives a Lexus, he drives a
Cadillac and his daughter drives a hybrid.
Mitt Romney Romney drives a Mustang convertible
and a Chevy pickup his wife drives a Cadillac
crossover.
Rudy Guiliani Doesn't own a car.
Democrats
Barack Obama Chrysler 300C, but later bought a
Ford Escape SUV hybrid.
John Edwards An Escape hybrid
Hillary Clinton Mercury Mariner hybrid.

http//www.obamas300c.com/
Is it now environmentally correct to drive a
hybrid?
10
What is TDM?

Transportation (travel) demand management (TDM)
is the use of policies, programs, services and
products to influence whether, why, when, where
and how people travel.
TDM measures motivate people to
shift modes
make fewer trips
drive more efficiently

11
Government initiatives counter productive to TDM

Hybrids allowed in HOV lanes in some
jurisdictions
Canada eco-Auto rebate
2,000 for compact hybrids

Stimulates induced (latent) travel demand
reduce transit use, car-pooling, trip combining
TDM strategies

12
Private sector initiatives

DRIVERS OF HYBRID AND FUEL EFFICIENT VEHICLES GET
PREFERRED GREEN PARKING AT IKEA STORES IN CANADA
IKEA Recognizes Environmentally Conscious
Customers with Two Designated Parking Spots at
All 11 LocationsIKEA is rewarding customers who
drive hybrid and fuel efficient vehicles with
preferred Green Parking spaces. Rolling out at
the end of May at all 11 IKEA stores across the
country, two parking spaces in each lot will be
designated as Green. IKEA Canada welcomes all
drivers of hybrid cars and fuel efficient
vehicles recognized by the recent Federal
governments tax relief incentive (cars that use
less than 6.5L of gas per 100km) to take
advantage of IKEAs Green Parking spaces.

http//www.ikea.com/ms/en_CA/about_ikea/press_room
/press_release/national/hybrid_parking.html
13
Ontario MTO initiative Eco-license plates

Aug. 8 2007 press release
Green vehicle program that will rate cars, light
trucks and commercial vehicles using
environmental criteria green vehicles will be
recognized with an Eco-license plate for HOV lanes

14
Life cycle impacts of automobiles
http//www.ec.gc.ca/soer-ree/English/products/fact
sheets/93-1.cfm
15
Are hybrids green?

http//www.youtube.com/watch?vTq4nrmnqY9o
http//www.youtube.com/watch?vXblJq4iVT9g
http//www.youtube.com/watch?v3Mlffr3e5P4
http//www.youtube.com/watch?vPVg2rG07z50modere
latedsearch
MacLean, Heather L. and Lester B. Lave. 2003.
Life Cycle Assessment of Automobile/Fuel
Options. Environ. Sci. Technol., 2003, 37 (23),
5445-5452
Did not compare conventional to alternatives
Only looked at use phase
Pointed out one major LCA Ford Taurus, 73 CO2
from use phase

16
Ford - Easy being green?

http//www.youtube.com/watch?vOQLiX_yqkfk
The publication in August 2007 of its 38-page
Product Sustainability Index Report was a first
for the automotive industry (certified against
ISO 14040 for LCA by external assessors). As well
as detailing the Ford approach to sustainability,
it is also a fact that the three of its cars
designed with sustainability in mind have
delivered improved environmental, social and
economic sustainability performance compared to
their predecessors and other models.
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry
Europe (SETCE). 2009. Life Cycle Management How
business uses it to decrease footprint, create
opportunities and make value chains more
sustainable.
http//www.youtube.com/watch?vLupVfiXjE6cNR1

17
Dust to Dust LCA 2008

CNW Marketing Research Inc. has conducted the
world's most comprehensive analysis of the "life
cycle" energy requirements of more than 100 makes
and models of cars and trucks
4,000 "data points" for each car cradle to
grave
energy consumed in research and development
energy consumed in junkyard disposal
energy needed to produce parts
greenhouse gas emissions
Fuel mileage
Vehicle lifespan

18
Hybrids

CNW credited Prius with only half its 200,000
lifetime miles poor battery life, reduced use
hybrids fare poorly because of increased
complexity

hybrids fare poorly because of increased
complexity
Batteries - Toyota buys 1,000 tonnes of nickel a
year from Ontario (mined and smelted in Sudbury).
This nickel gets shipped to Wales for refining,
then to China, for further processing, and then
to Toyota's battery plant in Tokyo - a
10,000-mile trip, mostly by petrol powered
container ships and diesel-powered locomotives

19
CNW Top 18 most energy efficient vehicles over
their life cycle (normalized by )

SMART 0.583
Ion 0.621
Focus 0.621
Cavalier 0.655
Wrangler 0.656
xB 0.683
Aveo 0.693
xA 0.713
Sunfire 0.732
Corolla 0.748
Elantra 0.755
Accent 0.792
tC 0.792
Fit 0.799
Spectra 0.801
Sentra 0.862
Cobalt 0.872
Mazda 3 0.876

Dr. Chucks Mazda 3 full of haz waste

Why the 4WD Jeep with 3.8L V6?
Less energy to manufacture, longer km lifespan,
easier to recycle

20
CNW Hybrid energy efficiency over their lifetime

1. Honda Insight (2.94 per mile)
5 x greater than Mercedes Smart
2. Ford Escape Hybrid (3.18 per mile)
3. Honda Civic Hybrid (3.24 per mile)
4. Toyota Prius (3.25 per mile)
5. Honda Accord Hybrid (3.30 per mile)
Critics Hybridcars.com
http//www.hybridcars.com/environment-stories/dust
-to-dust-energy-costs.html

21
Sucking on death analogy mild/light cigarettes
hybrid cars
http//www.youtube.com/watch?vyZZ_Tor33Msfeature
related
22
Dr. Chucks Simplified LCA

Hostovsky's Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle
Life Cycle Index
Go to Excel file
LCA 30 manufacturing/disposal phases
Weight (assumes percentage of different materials
the same)
Lifespan in miles 200,000 miles industry
standard
LCA 70 use phase
Miles per gallon
Number of occupants single, mid, maximum base
don number of seat belts

23
Yamaha Riva scooter
24
Dr. Chucks Ducatis ST2 - 944 cc v-2
http//www.youtube.com/watch?vLL81zNA6mFk
25
Prius, Beetle Diesel, Accord
26
Caravan, Navigator
27
Bus, Winnebago
28
Hybrid TV Commercials online, March 2009

Qualitative, thematic analysis, using grounded
theory
Sample site www.Youtube.com
English, not other languages (appear to be
entirely different commercials)
19 commercials
Toyota 9
Honda 5
Ford 4
GM 1
Examined dominant images, themes, and slogans
(catch phrases) used

29
Commercial analysis results

58 (n11) dominant images involved the hybrid
set in nature
Deep woods common, mountains, glaciers and
valleys
Biodiversity, species at risk, rich plant life
26 (n5) subset has a strong ecological
restoration thematic
Seed planted grows into a tree bearing hybrids as
fruit that fall to the ground and start to drive
Flowers follow the car and the city greens
North America becomes green from space
Everything the hybrid passes on the road
transforms to green
Seedlings/flowers emerging through the asphalt
Slogans many e.g. Kermit the Frog saying its
easy being green
Most outrageous harmony between man, nature and
machine
http//www.youtube.com/watch?vTq4nrmnqY9o
http//www.youtube.com/watch?vXblJq4iVT9g
http//www.youtube.com/watch?v3Mlffr3e5P4

30
Other themes

26 (5) Transformative technology
Images of da Vinci, hybrid engines, other
transportation modes
Slogans
One small step on the accelerator, one giant
leap for mankind
Creating new alternatives Ones that wont
change the way we live, but rather the impact our
lives have on the environment around us
16 (n3) no environmental theme appeal to the
vehicles utility as a hatch-back or to fuel
mileage
Images of young adults loading their cars,
parking in the city, everyday driving
Slogans
The hybrid for everyone is here
most fuel efficient car in its class

31
Conservation Rebound Effect

The consumer chooses to use more of the resource
(increase demand) instead of realizing the
energy/environmental savings.
e.g. a person with a more efficient home heater
may chose to raise the setting on the thermostat
or a person driving a more efficient car may
drive more

32
Conservation Rebound Effect?
DEVICE SIZE OF REBOUND NUMBER OF STUDIES
Residential Lighting 5-12 4
Home Appliances 0 2
Automobiles 10-30 23

Greening, L.A. Energy efficiency and consumption
- the rebound effect - a survey, Energy Policy
(2000) 28 389-401

Small Van Dender (UC Energy Institute Policy
Economics."The Effect of Improved Fuel Economy on
Vehicle Miles Traveled Estimating the Rebound
Effect Using U.S. State Data, 1966-2001
short- and long-run rebound effect 4.7 and 22.0

33
Very little research on CRE

de Haan, Peter, Mueller, Michel G. Peters, Anja.
2006. Does the hybrid Toyota Prius lead to
rebound effects? Analysis of size and number of
cars previously owned by Swiss Prius buyers
Ecological Economics, 58, 3, 592-605.
Acknowledged Greenings 2000 survey
surveyed 367 buyers of the Toyota Prius 2 in
Switzerland
Of cars replaced, CO2 emissions dropped 210 g/km
to 104 g
Conservation rebound effect 3 types?
vehicle size did not increase
average household vehicle ownership remained
stable
However - unable to determine if hybrid drivers
will in the future drive more

34
Eco-Smugness noted in the media

July 15, 2007, San Francisco Chronicle Oh, so
pious, Prius drivers/Smugness drifts over the
warming Earth -- is that a bad thing? by Vicki
Haddock
The firm's (CNW) research concluded that more
customers pick the Prius over alternatives like
the hybrid version of the Honda Civic precisely
because the Prius is exclusively -- and
identifiably -- a hybrid. While just 36 percent
cited fuel economy as a prime motivator for
buying a Prius, 57 percent said their main reason
was that "it makes a statement about me."
What's more, in focus groups, many Prius buyers
admit expecting acclaim from friends and
co-workers for making such a socially
responsible, planet-saving purchase. But the
satisfaction of some eco-drivers risks swelling
to self-righteousness -- like the Prius driver
coasting down Highway 101 in Marin County last
week with the bumper sticker "How many lives to
the gallon do you get?"

35
Eco-Smugness?

Reid R. Heffner, Kenneth S. Kurani, Thomas S.
Turrentine. 2007. Symbolism in Californias
early market for hybrid electric vehicles.
Transportation Research D, 12, pp. 396413.
Many households acknowledged purchasing their
HEVs as a response to environmental concerns.
However, most had only a basic understanding of
environmental issues or the ecological benefits
of HEVs. Rather than buying their HEVs with
measurable environmental goals in mind, most of
the individuals in this study bought a symbol of
preserving the environment that they could
incorporate into a narrative of who they are, or
who they wish to be.

http//vodpod.com/watch/200728-southpark-hybrid
36
Focus Group - Hybrid Vehicles and Green Washing

Metronuaghts May 3, 2008
Bias hard core transit advocates
General suspicion of hybrid marketing
competition with transit
people drive cars as a status symbol, thus where
do hybrid cars, Smart cars, ethonol cars,
electric cars fit in?
2 future focus groups
for signs of the CRE
Suburban attitudes toward transit (bus only
system) Level of Service
do they feel no alternatives to hybrids living in
auto-dependant suburbia?
City - Attitudes toward transit (TTC LRT,
subway) Level of Service and changes in transit
patronage

37
Preliminary research conclusions

No empirical LCA based evidence that hybrids are
more environmentally efficient
Hybrid commercials exhibit a strong tendency
towards green-washing
Evidence of eco-smugness, likely as a result of
deep corporate green-washing may dissuade TDM
Governments and business appear to be reacting to
this popularity with misguided programs,
subsidies and policies
Much more research is required, especially in
terms of how hybrids effect induced travel
demand, and perceived transit LOS and freeway LOS
(environmental performance as a measure of
effectiveness)
Transit advocates are suspicious of hybrid
popularity and the potential effect on TDM and
TOD (i.e. Smart Growth)