Title: Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on Training Workshop
1Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on
Training Workshop
Integration of VA Analysis
2Outline
- Integration of results
- General points
- Cross sector and multisector integration
- Setting priorities
- Vulnerability
- Adaptation
3Why is Integration Important?
- Impacts do not happen in isolation
- Impacts in one sector can adversely or positively
affect another - Some sectors are affected directly and indirectly
- Others just indirectly
- Sometimes a change in one sector can offset the
affect of climate change in another sector - In addition, integration is necessary for ranking
vulnerabilities and adaptations
4Main Types of Integration of Results
- Cross-sector integration
- Link related sectors
- Multisector
- Economy or system wide
- Integrated assessment models
- Economic models
5Impacts in One Sector Can Overwhelm Direct
Climate Effect
- In a recent study, crop yields in California were
generally estimated to increase with climate
change - In one scenario, a 25 reduction in water supply
results in a net loss of 1 billion/year to
California agriculture
6Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT
SCENARIOS Population, Development, Technology
WATBAL Streamflow PET
SCENARIOS GCM
CERES Crop water demand
WEAP Evaluation Planning
CLIMATE Precip., Temp., Solar Rad.
CROPWAT Regional irrigation
7Key Indicators for Egyptian Baseline
(1990 absolute 2060-optimistic/pessimistic
percentage change from 1990)
8Multisector Integration
9IMAGE Model
10Regional/National Economic Models
- Quantitative way to examine climate change market
impacts throughout an economy - Problem with nonmarket impacts
- Often macroeconomic models or general equilibrium
models - Require much data
- Can be expensive
- Can be complex
- Communication of assumptions can be a challenge
11An Example of a Regional Model
12A More Simple Approach
- Add up results sector by sector
- Limited by what is known within sectors
- Problem of how to integrate across multiple end
points - Impacts may be measured with different metrics
- Need to account for many sectors
- Does not capture sectoral interactions
13Estimates of Damages for India
Sector Damages ( billions)
Agriculture -53.2
Forestry 0.1
Energy -21.9
Water -1.2
Coastal Resources -0.1
14Can Also Measure Number of People Affected
- Millions at Risk study did this
- Global burden of disease
15Millions at Risk Study
16At a Minimum
- Should at least qualitatively identify linkages
and possible direction of impacts - If crops can be examined, not water supply, then
identify how change in water supply could affect
agricultural production
17Integration through Setting Priorities
18Prioritization of Vulnerabilities
- It can be quite useful for
- Focusing adaptation measures
- Monitoring
- Adaptation
19Process is as Important as Outcome
- This is an expression of values, not a purely
analytic exercise - Need to include stakeholders and policy makers
- The following are tools that can be useful in
setting priorities - Whether you use qualitative or quantitative
approach, the most important thing is JUST DO IT
20 NAPA Process
21Adaptation Policy Framework
Table 4 Ranking of priority systems/regions/clima
te hazards
22OECD Method
23Ranking Adaptations
- Screening
- Multicriteria assessment
- Benefit-cost analysis
24Screening Matrix for Human Settlement and Tourism
Adaptation Measure in Antigua
25Multicriteria Assessment
Options Effectiveness Feasibility Cost Score
A 3 2 2 7
B 2 4 4 10
C 5 1 3 9
26Adaptation Decision Matrix for Agriculture in
Kazakhstan
27Ranking Based on Scenario
28Benefit-Cost Analysis
- Estimate all benefits and costs in a common
metric to determine whether benefits gt costs - Monetary values often used
- Difficulty what to do about nonmarket benefits
or uncertainties - Difficulty requires much data and analysis
29BCA Example Sea Walls in Kiribati
30What to Use
31Conclusions
- Integration is important to at least identify
related impacts - Analysis is desirable because there can be
surprises - Integration can also be useful for examining
total vulnerability and ranking vulnerabilities