Fruit

1

• Fruit Nut Cases?
• Eco-nutrition and food policy
• in an age of climate change
• Tim Lang
• Centre for Food Policy, City University, London
• t.lang_at_city.ac.uk
• 3rd International Consumer Sciences Research
  Conference Improving Consumer Skills Improving
  Consumer Choice, University of Ulster,
  Jordanstown, June 29, 2007

2
Overview of this talk

• The impact of diet on health is well known
• The nutrition transition is now globalising
• Environmental determinants now loom alongside
  health as shapers of C21st food
• Big changes will happen in what we eat, how its
  produced what land is used for
• Professions must engage with this picture
• The eco-nutrition transition must be democratised
  rather than forced on us

3
Issue 1 The productionist paradigm (which has
shaped C20th food supply) is under stress
4
Life sciences vs. ecology?The paradigm battle
Food Wars
Productionist paradigm
1800s 1900s 1950
2000 2050
LEGEND Key Battlegrounds in the Food
Wars. These include Diet, health and disease
prevention Capturing the consumer What
sort of food business Environmental
crisis Controlling food supply Competing
visions / ideologies
5
Implications

• Although big money has been invested in Life
  Sciences, ecological perspectives are themselves
  becoming central
• Big consumer goods companies (including food
  co.s) are rapidly trying to address this change.
• Markets are being redefined

6
Issue 2 Consumers food culture is troubled -
going in contradictory directions simultaneously
7
Food culture in tension (1)
Consumerist Citizen
Long distance Local
Factory cooking Home cooking
Nutrient lite Nutrient dense
Fast Slow
De-skilled Artisanal / craft
Individualised / private Public / common
Intensification Extensification
Cheap Expensive
Externalised costs Internalised costs
8
Food culture in tension (2)
Hypermarket Street Market
Commodity broker Peasant
Labour shedding Labour enhancement
Monoculture Biodiversity
Quantity Quality
Nutrigenomics Social nutrition
Supplements Wholefood
Organic Agrichemical-based
Traceability relationship Trust relationship
Personalised health Population health
9
Other values than value for money appeal to
food consumers

• Animal welfare
• Human health
• Methods of production impact (eg,
  environmental, landscape)
• Terms of trade (fair price, etc)

• Quality (taste, composition, etc)
• Origin and place
• Trust
• Voice (participation)
• Transparency
• Working conditions

Source Coff, Korthals, Barling, eds (2007)
Ethical Traceability project (EU 6th framework),
forthcoming book or see www.food-ethics.net
10
Implications

• How can consumers juggle and reconcile competing
  demands?
• There are no guidelines for addressing single
  issues together
• A battle is on for the collective consciousness /
  culture
• Are there signs of a shift from value for money
  to values for money?

11
Issue 3 Climate change is rapidly emerging as a
(? the) major policy challenge. It alters notions
of progress and the future. Here, I draw on J
Holdrens AAAS Presidential Address Feb 2007
12
The problem the Earth is getting warmer.
C
Green bars show 95 confidence intervals
2005 was the hottest year on record the 13
hottest all occurred since 1990, 23 out of the 24
hottest since 1980.
J. Hansen et al., PNAS 103 14288-293 (26 Sept
2006)
13
With the causal link to greenhouse gases
Source Hansen et al., Science 308, 1431, 2005.
14
The effects are rapidly emerging
15
Changes in climate are already causing harm
Major floods per decade, 1950-2000
Theres a consistent 50-year upward trend in
every region except Oceania.
16
Harm is already occurring (continued)
Major wildfires by decade, 1950-2000
The trend has been sharply upward everywhere.
17
Where were headed Heat waves
Extreme heat waves in Europe,
already 2X more frequent because of global
warming, will be normal in mid-range scenario
by 2050
Black lines are observed temps, smoothed
unsmoothed red, blue, green lines are Hadley
Centre simulations w natural anthropogenic
forcing yellow is natural only. Asterisk and
inset show 2003 heat wave that killed 35,000.
Stott et al., Nature 432 610-613 (2004)
18
Harm is already occurring (continued) Total power
released by tropical cyclones (green) has
increased along with sea surface temperatures
(blue).
Source Kerry Emanuel, MIT, http//wind.mit.edu/
emanuel/anthro2.htm. SST anomaly (deg C) with
arbitrary vertical offset. PDI scaled by
constant.


Kerry Emanuel, MIT, 2006
19
Harm is already occurring (concluded) WHO
estimates climate change already causing 150,000
premature deaths/yr in 2000
20
But temp. rises will lead to lower yields in
tropics
Crop yields in tropics start dropping at ?T
1-1.5C
Easterling and Apps, 2005
21
Where were headed droughts
Drought projections for IPCCs A1B scenario
Percentage change in average duration of longest
dry period, 30-year average for 2071-2100
compared to that for 1961-1990.
22
Implications

• What we are doing to land (ie the planet) is
  shaping what happens on the planet
• This raises a fundamental policy question what
  is land for?
• There are competing demands
• Social amenity, housing, cultural identity,
• Environmental carbon sink, water, biodiversity
• Economic fuel, food, resources (minerals)

23
Issue 4 Climate change is not the only
environmental driver about to re-shape and deepen
pressures on consumer food culture
24
Environment and food culture

• Emissions from food transport
• Oil and Energy use
• Mobility oil not food as fuel
• Water use by population
• Water use by products

25
CO2 emissions and UK food transport (2002)
(Defra/AEA 2005)
26
Source Tara Garnett, Univ Surrey, City seminar
March 2007
27
Oil energy

• IEA est. oil / energy demand growth 2000-30
  1.7 per yr
• equivalent to 60 on todays consumption
• 60 of demand growth will come from DCs (esp.
  China and India)
• Biofuels no solution ?land use pressure food vs
  biofuels vs amenity vs housing vs carbon sinks vs
  identity (views)

28
Rise of motorised transport 1930-2000
Michael P Walsh, Motor Vehicle Pollution Control,
Paper to China Fuel Economy Workshop, Hong Kong,
December 13, 2004, http//www.walshcarlines.com/c
hina/Applying20The20Lessons20To20China20-20M
OVE20.pdf
29
Water futures

• 2000-2020 water availability for humans is
  expected to drop by one-third
• Water scarcity or stress (having less than 1,700
  cubic metres of water per person per year) is
  estimated to affect 40 of humanity by 2050
• Consequences
• 1. increased food prices and health threats
• 2. poor countries likely to be most heavily
  affected
• Stockholm International Water Institute (2003).
  General water statistics World Water Week
  Symposium data sheets, August 10-16. Stockholm
  Stockholm International Water Insitute
  www.siwi.org/waterweek2003
• Cosgrave W, Vice-President of the World Water
  Council, quoted in Houlder V (2003), World in
  drier straits, Financial Times, 11 August, p 16

30
.                                                
                                                  
                                                  
                                                  
                                
Sourcehttp//www.solcomhouse.com/drought.htm Acce
ssed 17 May 2004
31
World population by freshwater availability 2000
2025

• Source Marie Stopes International, evidence to
  All Party Parliamentary Group on Population,
  Development and Reproductive Health (2007)
  Return of the Population Factor its impact on
  the Millennium Development Goals. London House
  of Commons. Jan. Fig 22 pg 52 http//www.appg-popd
  evrh.org.uk/Publications/Population20Hearings/APP
  G20Report20-20Return20of20the20Population20
  Factor.pdf

32
Products virtual water content (litres)

• 1 potato (100g) 25
• 1 bag of potato crisps (200g) 185
• 1 egg (40g) 135
• 1 hamburger (150g) 2400
• 1 cotton T-shirt (medium, 500g) 4100
• 1 sheet A4 paper (80g/m20) 10
• 1 pair of shoes (bovine leather) 8000
• 1 microchip (2g) 32

• glass beer (250ml) 75
• glass milk (200ml) 200
• glass wine (125ml) 120
• glass apple juice (125ml) 190
• cup coffee (125ml) 140
• cup of tea (125ml) 35
• slice of bread (30g) 40
• slice of bread (30g) with cheese (10g) 90

Source WWF (2006) rich countries, poor water.
www.panda.org/freshwater
33
Meats water demands .creeping into policy

• 1 kg grain-fed beef needs 15 cubic metres of
  water
• 1 kg of lamb from a sheep fed on grass needs 10
  cubic metres
• 1kg cereals needs 0.4-3 cubic metres
• Source Anders Berntell, Stockholm International
  Water Institute, World Water week interview, BBC
  News Online, August 27 2005

34
Global social justice who emits the most carbon
dioxide?

• Source World Resources Institute (2006) climate
  analysis indicators tool version 3.0 (www.wri.org)

35
Implications

• The eco challenge to food system is real
• Food industry response too niche/ tokenist
• Decline of State leadership means no shared
  framework exists just when needed
• Pressures will grow

36
Issue 5Health pressures are similar to
environmental ones.Again, the policy focus is on
individualism, choice consumerism as drivers,
when they are being driven.
37
Health whats the problem? (WHO consensus e.g.
TR916)

• Rising toll of NCDs including most visibly
  obesity and diabetes
• Growing economic burden healthcare
• Creation of health inequalities
• The spread of Western diets and companies to
  the developing world

38
WHO (2005) Preventing Chronic Diseases a vital
investment. Overview. Geneva WHO p.12
39
Source WHO (2005) Preventing Chronic Diseases a
vital investment. Overview. Geneva WHO p.4
40
Yearly deaths due to risk factors associated with
tobacco, diet and physical inactivity

• 4.9 m people die as a result of tobacco use
• 2.6 m people die as a result of being overweight
  or obese
• 4.4 m people die as a result of raised total
  cholesterol levels
• 7.1 m people die as a result of raised blood
  pressure.

WHO (2005) Preventing Chronic Diseases a vital
investment. Overview. Geneva WHO p.6
41
WHO (2005) Preventing Chronic Diseases a vital
investment. Overview. Geneva WHO p.5
42
Implications

• Personalised healthcare choice is no adequate
  policy response (it appeals to rich countries and
  the worried well)
• Developing countries, too, face big burdens
• Diet-related healthcare costs will rise ? fiscal
  pressure on prevention
• Obesity is to health what climate change is to
  environment ? both attract policy attention
  because both are systemic crises

43
Issue 6The normalisation of what is damaging is
now part of the problem. How can we shift
absurdities which have been normalised? Two
examples are information (said to be key to
change) and waste.
44
Health ideal vs. TV advertising reality
(UK)Source IACFO 2003
45
The rise and rise of advertising

• McDonalds and Coca-Cola spend c1.7bn each
  globally per year
• more than total annual expenditure of WHO on
  everything
• Policy response to tensions diversification,
  e.g. sponsorship, virtual, viral, texting,
  whispering, product placement, etc

46
Can labelling deliver?All this in 2 seconds to
choose!

• NORMAL
• Brand design etc
• Logo
• Maker contact
• Packaging recycle?
• Ingredients

• EMERGING
• Nutrition (if health claim)
• Production method
• Social fair trade
• Animal welfare
• Allergy
• Climate carbon C

47
Food waste (UK) WRAP study 2007

• 6.7 mt food thrown yearly c 30 all food bought
  19 of domestic waste more weight than food
  packing
• 70 fd waste ?landfill ? methane (23x more
  powerful a climate changing gas than CO2)
• 1/2 food waste could be eaten equiv. 18mt CO2
  equiv. losing 20 all cars

48
What do we say we throw away?Source WRAP 2007

• 32 - food cooked left uneaten on plate
• 24 - food prepared but not cooked
• 24 - products opened but not finished
• 56 - inedible peelings, cores, outer leaves
• 30 - fruit, vegetables, salad

49
WRAP asks are UK consumers in denial?

• 90 of households dont believe that they waste
  much food
• 50 care a great deal or fairly
• 50 care a little, not much or not at all

50
Implications

• Information democracy is at the heart of the
  neo-liberal efficient market model
• but(excessive) choice is part of the ecological
  and cultural problem
• Information not a trigger for behaviour change
  (but a reinforcer)
• Signs of information overload?
• Are consumer values in a muddle?

51
Issue 7 Pursuit of lower food prices has been a
core policy goal and central to C20th notion of
progress. Now we need to internalise
externalised eco-health-social costs.
52

• Source Defra (2006). Food Security. Dec 22 p.15

53
As economies develop, food expenditure drops but
shifts from non-packaged to packaged food
Source Euromonitor, 2003 http//www.euromonitor.c
om
54
Implications

• The historic decline of food costs might be
  slowing
• Energy costs are rising / upward
• Food prices might rise due to competing land use
  from Biofuels 5 US corn (2006) ? 25 US corn
  (2007)
• The impact is likely to vary for different foods
  meat, fruit, veg, cereals
• Impact on countries will vary
• UK Govt argues it is not vulnerable (HMT Defra
  2005ff) others disagree.

55
Source Defra (2006). Food Security. Dec 22 p.36
56
Source Defra (2006). Food Security. Dec 22 p.34
57
Issue 8 Consumers dietary hearts and minds
are now central to a wider cultural tussle.
Individualised choice vs. choice editing is the
new political fissure.
58
PRODUCT Choice Functional and Emotional Cues
Shoppers drivers of product choice can be
grouped into functional and emotional factors. As
shoppers become more engaged in food choice, they
begin to choose products based on the emotional
factors, rather than just the functional.
Function
Emotion
Disengaged passive
Principles into practice
Source IGD Consumer Unit, 2006
59
The optimistic view one retailers analysis of
consumers as drivers of food chain change
Ethics
Environment
Animal welfare
Mislabelling
Unnatural production
Healthy nutrition
Food safety
60
But ecological tipping points may shift attention
down to assumed infrastructure not just up
Ethics
Environment
Animal welfare
Mislabelling
Unnatural production
Healthy nutrition
Food safety
FOOD SECURITY choice declines?
ECOLOGICAL SUSTAINABILITY water, climate, fuel
etc
61
Implications

• When food security is likely to rise up policy
  agenda, the consequences for consumer culture are
  uncertain (Chatham house WP)
• Energy auditing likely to accentuate this
• New fault-line is between small changes
  cumulatively deliver big change vs.
  individualised small change wont deliver enough
  change

62
Issue 9Amidst all these changes, food power is
concentrating rapidly. Supermarketisation and
internationalisation are apparently unstoppable
63
Supermarketisation globally
64
Rise of supermarkets in UK grocery market,
1900-2010 source IDG 2005/Defra 2006 p.53
65
Supply Chain under pressure
Ecology Environment
Demographics
Government politics

Culture
Health
Societal demands
Supply Chain Dynamics farm, manufacture,
retail, foodservice
Finance investment
Science Technology
Energy
Climate Change
Consumers
66
Implications

• Debate about the new food powers is opening up
  but policy levers are few no international
  controls
• Competition Policy is failing to deal with this
  (e.g. UK Competition Commissions Terms of
  Reference too narrow) CSR is too thin a
  response
• Key issues are
• how to define a market?
• Can / will politicians do anything?

67
Issue 10 The policy triangle of state, supply
chain and civil society has been restructured,
leaving the state weak just when its needed to
reset policy frameworks. Individual businesses
consumers cannot take that function.
68
Civil society

• The traditional model of state, supply chain
  and civil society law as arbiter

State
Law
Supply chain
69
Civil society

• The modern duality model
• state law competes with company regulations

State
Law
Supply chain
Company regulations
70
Civil society

• Emergence of triangular dynamic
• civil demands and campaigns

State
Law
Supply chain
Company regulations
Demands campaigns
71
Implications

• There is little policy leadership or clarity
• This is, in part, because no-one is in control of
  policy frameworks
• There is also a failure of vision where do we as
  societies want to go?

72
These are big questions and issues!Is it all
doom and gloom? No!
73
There are pointers ahead

• The shape of the challenge is becoming clear
• People are working on different aspects
• The big picture needs to be pulled together

74
Conclusion 1 There is much wonderful analysis
ripe to be linked upexample WWF Scottish
dietary footprint 2006
75
We know what a nutritionally good diet looks
like (WHO/ FAO 2004 etc etc)

• Lots of fruit and veg (Fruit)
• Lots of cereals
• Good role for nuts and other sources of
  micro-nutrients (Nuts)
• Fish for ve fats
• Restricted fats implications for meat dairy
• Restricted / minimal NME sugars

76
The problem with that vision is

• Fish are in crisis
• Land is being corralled for energy
• Biodiversity is under threat
• More energy is spent getting food than is in it
• Sugars and fats are cheap calories and put in
  masses of processed foods
• Nutrition transition feast day foods everyday
• Etc, etc.

77
Global hectares of av. Scottish diet

• Source WWF Scotland 2006

78
Impact of eating a healthy diet (gha)

• Source WWF Scotland 2006

79
Best vs worst eco-footprint diets
Source WWF Scotland 2006
80
Conclusion 2we need to monitor the already
powerful and hold them to accountexample City
University health audit of top 25 food companies
(2006)
81
City University 2006 study

• 25 Top Global Food Companies
• Top 10 Manufacturers 10 Retailers 5
  Foodservice
• Used WHO DPAS as template
• Used this to review company accounts, annual
  reports, HQ websites
• review of self-reporting
• But this gives some indication of intent,
  seriousness and policy commitment

82
Overall, the big food companies appear to be
making a limited and patchy response to DPAS

• Sectors vary (retail is the weakest)
• Some are not engaged
• Some partially engaged
• No-one is fully engaged
• Our recommendations
• Company reporting has got to improve
• Company products have to change, too

83
Focus on core Company actions?

• Adspend, marketing, sponsorship 12/25 gave any
  figures 1 gave breakdown 6/25 had child
  ad-policy
• Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) on nutrition,
  diet physical activity (PA) 4/25!
• Director / Board for health only 6/25 had one
• Commitments on health, children, PA 11/25 act on
  product formulation 4/25 on fat 2/25 on portion
  size
• Deviations e.g. manufacturers focus on PA
  (7/10)

84
Conclusion 3To pull together diverse thinking
and analyses, we need to engage with movements
which express these diverse market demands.The
future is complex but new ground rules are
emerging
85
Many factors need to feed into a true
Eco-Nutrition / Ecological Public Health for
Sustainable Development

• Citizenship
• Health
• Nutrients
• Full cost prices
• Quality
• etc

• Ecology
• Energy use
• Land use / footprint

• Economy
• Fair prices
• Efficiency
• Work
• Good resource use
• etc

86
Thanks

• The shape of the challenge is becoming clear
• There are pointers
• People are working on different aspects
• The big picture needs to be pulled together