Global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels

1
Global carbon emissions from the burning of
fossil fuels the manufacture of cement (in
million metric tons of carbon)
http//cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/tre_glob_2009.ht
ml
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Global carbon emissions from the burning of
fossil fuels the manufacture of cement (in
million metric tons of carbon)
http//cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/tre_glob_2009.ht
ml
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Global Carbon Cycle
(in billions metric tons carbon)
http//www.eia.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.htm
l
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Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations
391.5 ppmv in 2011
(in ppmv)
275 ppmv in pre-industrial time
ftp//ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/
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Global Carbon Emissions present future
(in millions metric tons of carbon equivalent)
http//www.eia.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.htm
l
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Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) including Carbon dioxide
GHGs are gases in an atmosphere that absorb and
emit radiation within the thermal infrared range.
This process is the fundamental cause of the
greenhouse effect.
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The Greenhouse effect
A T M O S P H
E R E
S U N
G R E E N H O U S E G A S E S
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The main GHGs in the Earth's atmosphere are water
vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide,
and ozone.
Without GHGs, Earth's surface would be on
average about 33C colder than at present.
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Rise in the concentration of four GHGs
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Global Warming Potential (GWP) of different GHGs
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Global Warming
The burning of fossil fuels, land use change and
other industrial activities since the industrial
revolution have increased the GHGs in the
atmosphere to such a level that the earths
surface is heating up to temperatures that are
very destructive to life on earth.
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The global temperature has risen by 0.74
0.18C over the last century (from 1906 to
2005). Source Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Compare the above with the fact that the global
temperature has not varied by more than 1 or 2oC
during the past 100 centuries.
Global warming has begun, and so has the Climate
Change.
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Consequences
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Consequences
Worlds first environmental refugees from
Carteret Islands, Papua New Guinea.

• Persistent flooding is causing the submergence
  of the Carteret Islands.
• Saltwater intrusion is contaminating the islands
  freshwater supply and preventing the growth of
  crops.
• The islands were declared uninhabitable by the
  government in 2005 and expected to be completely
  submerged by 2015.

Source http//earthtrends.wri.org/
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Consequences

• death of coral reefs
• fewer cubs for polar bears
• spread of dengue and other diseases
• heavy rains severe draughts
• fires, floods, storms, hurricanes
• changed rainfall patterns
• warming and aridity
• loss of biodiversity

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Rate of increase of CO2 concentration (in
ppmv/year)
1.8 ppmv/year in 2011
ftp//ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/
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CO2 concentration in the future (ppmv)
global temperature may be up by 2oC
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At the rate of 1.5 ppmv of CO2 increase per year,
400 ppmv CO2 will be reached in 2017, and it is
probable that the global temperature would go up
by 2oC (compare it with the 0.01oC per decade
estimate by WWF).
-Accelerated Climate Change -Mass
extinctions -Ecosystems breakdowns -Large scale
discontinuities
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Some say, forget about the 2oC. The limit is not
400 ppmv CO2. It is 550 ppmv CO2 (which is
nearly twice the pre-industrial value), which we
may reach not.
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CO2 concentration in the future (ppmv)
We are lucky. Are we?
21
U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)
Computer models of future CO2 emissions and
controls on atmospheric CO2 have been developed
by CCSP. These models indicate that projected
annual global emissions during the next century
would need to be reduced by more than 75 in
order to stabilize atmospheric CO2 at about 550
ppm. According to the CCSP, stabilizing
atmospheric CO2 would "require a transformation
of the global energy system, including reductions
in the demand for energy, and changes in the mix
of energy technology and fuels."
http//geology.com/usgs/sequestration/
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Discussion Point 5 Should we place a upper
sealing limit on the global CO2 emissions to
ensure sustainable development?
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Sustainable Limit Calculations
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Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate
of Carbon Dioxide Production
1. Virgin material supply limit To stabilize
the atmospheric CO2 concentration below
approximately 550 ppmv by the year 2100, global
anthropogenic emissions must be limited to about
7 to 8 x 1012 kg ( 7 to 8 giga tonnes) of C per
year (IPCC, 1996).
Source Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002.
Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci.
Tech. 36(4) 523-9
25
Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate
of Carbon Dioxide Production
2. Allocation of virgin material Each of the
average 7.5 billion people on the planet over the
next 50 years is allocated an equal share of
carbon emissions. That is roughly 1 tonne (1000
kg) of C equivalents per person per year, which
is roughly 3.8 tonne of CO2 equivalents per
person per year.
Source Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002.
Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci.
Tech. 36(4) 523-9
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USA
Sustainable limit
Sri Lanka
Sources http//hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_r
eport.cfm
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USA
Norway
Singapore
Sustainable limit
Sri Lanka
Iceland
Japan
Sources http//hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_r
eport.cfm
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UNDP defined Human Development Index (HDI)
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HDI gt 0.8
Unsustainable amount of per capita CO2 emissions
are required to reach super high HDI (gt 0.9)
USA
Sustainable limit
Sri Lanka
Sources http//hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_r
eport.cfm
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Discussion Point 6 How to limit the CO2
emissions below the sustainable limit?
Take 10 mins.
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Emissions Reduction Option 1 Increase the use
of carbon sinks (such as forests where 70 of all
photosynthesis occurs).
But, we replace our forests with cities, highways
golf courses.
Stop destroying forests, and grow more trees.
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The forest cover is already too small to help
reducing global warming.
How long does it take to grow a tree like this?

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Emissions Reduction Option 2 Change to non-CO2
emitting energy sources
What are they? Nuclear Hydro Renewables
(Geothermal, Solar, Wave, Tidal, Wind,
Biomass and Biogas)
Muscle Power
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World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in 1015 BTU)
http//www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tab
le18.xls
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World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in )
http//www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tab
le18.xls
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World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in )
http//www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tab
le18.xls
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World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in )
http//www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tab
le18.xls
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There is no immediate financial benefits for a
switch to renewable energy in the profit-oriented
energy markets.
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Projection of World Energy Consumption by Fuel
(in )
United States Energy Information Administration,
2011
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Emissions Reduction Option 3 Reduce Population
More people
More pollution
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Electricity use in 2006
If you are in USA, you will be lighting 18.5
bulbs, each with 200 W power
If you are in China, you will be lighting 3
bulbs, each with 200 W power
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in 2005
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in 2005
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CO2 emissions per capita has stronger links with
GDP per capita than with population.
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Emissions Reduction Option 4 Carbon Capture
Storage (CCS)
Controversial since permanent storage of CO2
underground is not guaranteed
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Controversial since the impacts on marine
ecosystem (very fragile) are not known
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Advantage Problems
Oil and Gas Reservoirs Well-characterized volume Known seal Potential fuel recovery to offset cost Smallest capacity (25 gigatons carbon) Limited in number Requires infrastructure to transport CO2
Formations Containing Saline Water Large capacity (250 to 900 gigatons of carbon) Wide distribution Poorly characterized Greatest geologic uncertainty Unknown seal effectiveness
Unmineable Coal Beds Adjacent to many large power plants (CO2 source) Potential fuel (methane) recovery to offset cost Poorly characterized Difficult to define "unmineable" coal Potential coal resources may be rendered unusable
http//geology.com/usgs/sequestration/
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Environmental issues Potential for mobilization
of ground-water contaminants leakage of CO2 and
CO2-saturated saline water induced
seismicityRegulatory issues Determination of
rules affecting injection wells multiple
regulatory jurisdictions (State, Federal, local)
post-injection ownership and liability
http//geology.com/usgs/sequestration/
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U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) The
CCSP models illustrate the widely held view that
sequestration is necessary but insufficient to
control atmospheric CO2. Stabilizing atmospheric
CO2 is likely to require substantial changes in
energy sources and use as well as carbon
management.
http//geology.com/usgs/sequestration/
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Discussion Point 7 What could you do to
limit the CO2 emissions below the sustainable
limit as an engineer?
Take 10 mins.
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Food for thought What are the Engineering
Challenges to sustainability? ?? Global climate
change ?? Energy production and use ?? Food
production ?? Resources depletion ?? Toxics in
the environment ?? Making sustainable lifestyles
attractive
Base for your CP551 project
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Scientists study the world as it is, engineers
create the world that never has been. - Theodore
von Karman
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Scientists study the world as it is, engineers
create the world that never has been. - Theodore
von Karman
sustainable engineering is about taking the
world back to where it had been, while making it
more civilized than it was then. - shanthini
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The supreme Greek God Zeus told Prometheus
You may give men such gifts as are suitable, but
you must not give them fire
for that belongs to the Immortals.
Roger Lancelyn Green Tales of the Greek
Heroes Puffin Classics