Hurricane Evacuation Decision Support Systems and Related Research

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Hurricane Evacuation Decision Support Systems and
Related Research Development Recommendations
Hurricane Evacuation Decision Support Systems and
Related Research Development Recommendations

• Presented by
• Richard Wagoner
• National Center for Atmospheric Research
• National Hurricane Conference
• Washington, DC
• 9 April, 2001

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Winter Road Maintenance Decision Support System
(MDSS) Prototype Development

• Presented by
• Bill Mahoney
• National Center for Atmospheric Research

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MDSS Objective
To utilize state-of-the-art atmospheric
science and engineering approaches to address
and improve the performance of the
road maintenance practitioner.
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MDSS Goals

• Capitalize on existing road weather data
  sources.
• Augment data sources where they are weak.
• Fuse data to make an integrated and
• understandable presentation
• of road conditions.
• Provide diagnostic and prognostic information.

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MDSS Goals (continued)

• Provide display capability for the condition
• of the roadway.
• Develop a decision support tool that provides
• recommendations on road maintenance
• courses of action together with anticipated
• consequences of action or inaction.
• Provide all the above on a single platform.

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MDSS Prototype Components
Weather Data
Display
Advanced Weather Capabilities
DOT Operations Data
Decision Support Logic
Road Condition Module
External System Interface
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MDSS Prototype Focus Areas

• Weather Component Focus
• Event start and stop times
• Surface temperature
• Precipitation type
• Precipitation rate
• Precipitation accumulation
• Conditional probabilities
• Surface wind speed
• Surface wind direction
• Surface visibility

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MDSS Prototype Focus Areas

• Road Component Focus
• Pavement temperature and trends
• Pavement chemical concentration
• Pavement friction coefficient
• Pavement contamination
• (liquid, snow, ice, etc.)
• Snow drifting

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MDSS Prototype Focus Areas

• Decision Support System Component Focus
• Monitor weather road conditions
• Monitor probability intensity of weather
  threat
• Crew scheduling
• Manage crew shifts
• Dispatch crews to treat roadway
• Coordinate emergency management
• Manage incidents
• Monitor crew working time
• Post event clean up

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Proposed Engineering Approach for MDSS
Point Time Specific Output
NOAA Weather Data
Weather Parameter Output
DICAST
Forecast Module A
Forecast Integrator
Data Ingest
Forecast Module B
Forecast Module C
Post Processor
Forecast Module D
. . .
Forecast Product
DOT Wx Data
Forecast Module N
DOT Operations Data
Decision Support System Module
Road Condition Module
GIS Display
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Conceptual System Diagram for MDSS
Point Time Specific Output
Weather Data
DICAST
Forecast Module A
Forecast Integrator
Data Ingest
Forecast Module B
Forecast Module C
Post Processor
Forecast Module D
. . .
Forecast Product
Forecast Module N
GIS Display
Chemical Concentration
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Environmental Prediction Sites
Environmental prediction parameters will be
generated along the road. These data will be
used by the road condition algorithms.
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Translation of Environmental Data to Road
Condition Information
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Special Features of the MDSS

• Takes advantage of standard road weather
  sensor data via intelligent data integration.
• Utilizes an automated, high resolution forecast
  system with advanced data fusion techniques.
• Provides probability (confidence) information
  for environmental parameters.

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Special Features of the MDSS

• Has the capability of utilizing several road
  condition algorithms to provide a best
  solution.
• Merges environmental operational data within
  the DSS.
• Provides decision guidance in decision space and
  provides recommended courses of action and allows
  users to evaluate other courses of action.

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MDSS Technology Applications
Warning Preparation
Winter Maintenance
Paving Operations
Emergency Management
Pavement Marking
Traffic Management
Public Notification
Hurricane Evacuation
Sweeping Operations
Weed Spraying
Controlled Burns
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Proposed Architecture of Hurricane Evacuation DSS

• Hurricane Evacuation Subsystem
• Focused on 24 48 hr period prior to gale force
  winds on the coast
• Updated every six hours in phase with NHC
  advisories

• Uses weather, incident, maintenance and traffic
  modeling data to show decision makers estimated
  evacuation rates andproblem areas
• Between update times, what if scenarios can be
  run to estimate impact of track and intensity
  changes

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Proposed Architecture of Hurricane Evacuation DSS
Tactical Support for Emergency Response Subsystem

• Focused on weather and road conditions as gale
  force winds, heavy rain, lightning and tornadoes
  move inland
• Continuous monitor mode with updates every 5 15
  minutes
• Maximum wind, accumulated rainfall, rainfall
  rate, and lightning rate displayed for key
  locations designated by emergency managers

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Proposed Architecture of Hurricane Evacuation DSS
Tactical Support for Emergency Response Subsystem

• System will be used for timing post-storm
  responses to ensure safety of crews
• Storm location and past track displayed
• Future storm locations with estimatedwind and
  rainfall forecasts displayed for every 3 hrs out
  to 12 hours
• Road condition information constantly updated

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Recommended Research Development Areas

• Application of new data fusion techniques to TPC
  operations to improve 1 5 day track and
  intensity forecasts
• Optimal methods for utilizing weather
  informationin traffic models
• Validation of DSSs in operational settings

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The End wagoner_at_ucar.edu 303-497-8404