Naval Oceanography: Excellence in Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

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Naval Oceanography Excellence in Tropical
Cyclone Forecasting

• Rear Admiral Dave Titley
• Oceanographer of the Navy
• Presented to
• Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference
• Savannah, GA
• 1 March 2010

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Battlespace on DemandMinimizing TC Impact on
Naval operations

• Tier 3 Decision Layer
• Strike Probability
• Condition of Readiness
• Sortie Options

• Tier 2 Performance
• TC Warnings
• Wave probabilities

1-2M/yr

• Tier 1 Modeling
• NUOPC/HFIP
• COAMPS - TC
• ESPC

9M/yr

• Tier 0 Environment
• Remote Sensing
• In situ Obs

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Environment TierRemote Sensing and Observations

• The Navy is heavily dependent/leveraged upon
  partnerships for satellite based observational
  data.
• Advocate better use of existing data streams v.
  new sensors.
• Navy programmed investments targeted at
  oceanographic applications (e.g., GFO 2, UUVs)
• Key Capability Gaps
• Ocean Surface Vector Winds
• Scatterometer
• Radar
• GPS reflection
• Soundings
• Rawinsonde?
• Radiometer
• LIDAR

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Modeling TierTrack and Intensity forecasts

• Track is top priority. The Navy views
  improvements to global modeling capability as
  best means to improve track forecasts.
• Navy/NOAA/USAF Partnership is key enabler
• NUOPC
• HFIP (NHC / JTWC)
• Earth System Prediction Capability
• Structure and Intensity Storm Scale modeling
  initiatives
• HWRF/HFIP
• TC-COAMPS

Improvements in structure and intensity forecasts
dependent on first improving track forecasts
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Performance and Decision Tiers

• TC warnings
• ATCF Improvements
• Wave Heights
• Matching TC tracks to WW3
• Surge and inundation
• RTP
• FY01 Improvement to TC Model Forecasts
• FY02 Modeling TC Structure and Track
• FY06 4DVAR for Global Atmospheric Weather
  Prediction
• FY09 Prediction of TC Track and intensity Using
  COAMPS-TC
• Probability Based Decision Tools
• TCCOR
• Sortie

Conveying Uncertainly reduces uncertainty
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SummaryPartnerships Success

• Navy supportive of and dependent on Federal
  Solution for remote sensing needs
• Accurate track forecasts key to enabling naval
  operationsglobal modeling improvements best
  investment
• Significant investment in NUOPC and
  next-generation modeling in cooperation with NOAA
  and USAF
• Basic Research on intensity and Structure needed
• Support OFCM WG/TCR
• Storm-scale modeling initiatives
• Link Forecasts to Decisions
• Describing uncertainty reduces uncertainty.

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Questions?
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DoD TC Forecasting Goals v.2
72hr 120hr 168hr 75nm 150nm 200nm
24hr 48hr 72hr 50nm 100nm 150nm
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