Title: Managing Drought: A Roadmap for Change in the United States
1Managing Drought A Roadmap for Change in the
United States
Dr. Donald A. Wilhite, Director National Drought
Mitigation Center School of Natural
Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln U.S.A.
2Managing Drought and Water Scarcity in Vulnerable
Environments A Roadmap for Change in the U.S.
- Report online at
- http//www.geosociety.org/
3 The Cycle of Disaster Management
Risk management increases coping capacity, builds
resilience.
proactive
reactive
Crisis management treats the symptoms, not the
causes.
4Components of Drought Risk Management
Hazard
Risk
Vulnerability
x
(natural event)
(social factors)
Meteorological Drought
What factors are affecting vulnerability?
Are there trends in exposure?
5What is drought?
- A deficiency of precipitation from expected or
normal that extends over a season or longer
period of time and results in water supply that
is insufficient to meet the needs of human
activities and the environment. - Simply stated, its when demand exceeds supply
but . . . . .
61930s
1950s
1987-present
- Key observations
- Droughtnormal part of climate
- Average annual spatial extent 15
- Peak spatial extent 65
- Year-to-year variability
- Recent pattern over two decades
Area Affected
7Previous Calls for Action
- General Accounting Office
- Western Governors Association
- National Academy of Sciences
- Great Lakes Commission
- American Meteorological Society
- Interstate Council on Water Policy
- National Drought Policy Commission
8National Drought Policy Commission
- Report to Congress in 2000 in response to the
National Drought Policy Act of 1998. - Recommended creating a National Drought Policy.
- National Drought Preparedness Act 2001, 2003,
2005.
9Why the sense of urgency?
- Multiple severe droughts since 1996 have had
severe impacts and have raised concern about
increasing vulnerability. - U.S. population is growing rapidly, especially in
the water-short western states and the southeast. - Water demand is increasing dramatically,
conflicts between water users are increasing.
1021
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112000
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Improving drought management is a national issue!
2003
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2006
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13Why the sense of urgency?
- Water supplies are fully or over-appropriated in
many river basins. - All levels of government are poorly prepared for
droughtreactive, crisis management approach. - Existing water laws and institutions are based on
outmoded values and goals.
14- Drought plans exist at the
- state, river basin, local and tribal levels of
government. - Response oriented
- Lack of coordination
Bottom Line
No national drought plan or policy currently
exists.
15Why the sense of urgency?
- Climate change is likely to increase the
frequency, severity, and duration of drought. - Increasing temperatures, increased evaporation,
increased heat stress/heat waves - Changes in precipitation amount, intensity,
distribution, and form, increased variability - Reduced snowpack, stream flow, ground water
recharge, lower reservoir levels
16Temperature trends (F per century) since 1920
cooler warmer
3.6F 2.7F 1.8F 0.9F
PNW warmed 1.5o F during the 20th century
17Trends in April 1 SWE 1950-1997
Mote P.W.,Hamlet A.F., Clark M.P., Lettenmaier
D.P., 2005, Declining mountain snowpack in
western North America, BAMS, 86 (1) 39-49
18Portland, Oregon
- Portlands water needs by 2040 will increase by
60 mgd, 40 mgd from regional growth 20 mgd from
climate change impacts.
19Science and Policy Recommendations
- Implement a national drought policy as called for
by NDPC and drought mitigation planning at all
levels of government. - Include the potential impacts of projected
changes in temperature and precipitation due to
climate change in drought risk mitigation
planning.
20Science and Policy Recommendations
- Create a new national water culture that
promotes sustainable water management practices
to meet long-term societal needs. - Broad educational initiative to foster
partnerships between levels of government,
universities, and public. - Increased public education on the need for
long-term drought mitigation and water resources
management.
21Science and Policy Recommendations
- Engage stakeholders within common hydrologic
basins in water and drought management planning. - Foster place-based science with community
stakeholder involvement as part of public
education and outreach for natural resources
decision makers, integrating local climate and
water information and climate projections.
22Science and Policy Recommendations
- Maintain and enhance existing data networks and
data sets, enhance timely delivery of data and
information to decision makers and the public. - Fully fund and implement the National Integrated
Drought Information System (NIDIS). - Foster development of sector-based decision
support tools for natural resource managers,
agricultural producers, and policy makers.
23NIDIS passed by Congress in late
2006. Implementation Plan issued by NOAA in June
2007. Multi-agency and organizational
effort. Drought Portal under development.
24Science and Policy Recommendations
- Encourage use of risk-based approaches for
assessing multiple potential future climate and
water management scenarios. - Support research that improves fundamental
scientific understanding of drought, i.e.,
causes, predictability, impacts, mitigation
actions, planning methodologies, and policy
alternatives.
25Science and Policy Recommendations
- Value water at its full worth in the development
of water resource management and drought
mitigation plans. - Harmonize roles and responsibilities of
cooperating institutions and reduce conflicts to
achieve more effective decision making. - Fragmentation of responsibilities within and
between levels of government constrains effective
drought management.
26Its time for action!
http//www.geosociety.org/
Visit the NDMC drought.unl.edu dwilhite2_at_unl.edu