Trade Theories and Economic Development

1
Trade Theories and Economic Development
??? ?? 2007?10?03?
2
Chapter Outline

• Basis for International Trade
• Production Possibility Curve
• Principle of Absolute Advantage
• Principle of Comparative/Relative Advantage
• Exchange Ratios, Trade and Gain
• Factor Endowment Theory

3
Chapter Outline

• The Competitive Advantage of Nations
• Economic Cooperation
• Levels of Economic Integration
• Economic and Marketing Implications

4
Basis for International Trade

• Principle of Absolute Advantage
• A country should export a commodity that can be
  produced at a lower cost than can other nations
• Or import a commodity that can only be produced
  at a higher cost than can other nations

5
Basis for International Trade

• Principle of Comparative/Relative Advantage
• A country should export either a product with the
  greatest comparative advantage (or with the least
  comparative disadvantage)
• Or import either a product for which it has the
  greatest comparative disadvantage (or the least
  comparative advantage)

6
Factor Endowment Theory

• Factor of Production
• Labor
• Land
• Capital
• Others (technology, educations, etc.)
• Ineruality of relative prices is a function of
  regional factor endowments
• Comparative advantage is determined by relative
  abundance of such endowments

7
Michael PorterThe Competitive Advantage of
Nations

• Determinants of International Competitiveness
• Factor conditions
• Demand conditions
• Related and supporting industries
• Firm strategy, structure and rivalry
• Chance
• Government

8
Economic Cooperation
??WTO?????????
WTO???? (??????)
WTO??? ????
??????? (WTO??)
??????????? (??????)
9
Economic Cooperation
WTO???????
GATT/WTO ???
??????
1947 ?????
1949 ????
1950 ????
1956 ?????
1960-61 ????
1964-67 ?????
1973-79 ????
1995 WTO??
1986-93 ?????
2002-04 ????
10
Economic Cooperation
?????????????
11
Economic Cooperation
??????
(?)?? ???????(???)???,???????????????,?????????
?????? (?)?????????????4? (1)??????
(FTA,Free Trade Agreement) (2)????
(Customs Union) (3)???? (Common Market)
(4)???? (Economic Union)
12
Regional Economic Integration
????????

• ??????(Free Trade Agreement)

12
A?
B?
15
5
1.?????????????????? 2.???????????????? 3.???????
??(NAFTA) ????????(AFTA) ?
13
Regional Economic Integration
????????

• ????(Customs Union)

10
10
10

0
1.?????????????????? 2.?????????
3.???????(SACU) ?
14
Regional Economic Integration
????????

• ????(Common Market)

T10,??????
1.????????????,??????? ???????????????????? 2.?
??????(MERCOSUR) ?
15
????????

• ????(Economic Union)

T10
????????????,?????????????,??(European
Union)???????
16
????????
?????? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ???? ????
?????? (NAFTA,CAFTA?, ?280?) ?
???? (SACU?10?) ? ?
???? (MERCOSUR?6?) ? ? ?
???? European Union ? ? ? ?
17
??????????
WTO PLUS
? ?

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• ????
• ????
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• ??????

(??WTO?????)

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• ????
• ??
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• ????

(???WTO???)
? ?
WTO
18
????????(RTA)???

• ????
• ???????(???-????????)
• ????????????(???-??????-?????-??????????-???????)
• ????????(?EU-Mercosur???-???EU-?????????)
• ????
• ?????????
• ???????????
• ???????????????????

19
????????(RTA)???

• ????
• ?????????
• ????????????
• ???????????????,????????????,?????????
• ??????????,??????????

20
?????????
1.??????(Trade Creation) ?????????????? 2.??????
(Trade diversion) ?????????????????? 3.?????????
??????? 4.???????????????
21
?????????
?? (?)AFTA 1993-2003? A ???????,??130.05?
B
??????????????,
?2003??16.1,?????
???12.3??,????

????? (?)EU 1992-2000? A??????????14??
B????????????11?? (?)NAFTA
1994-2003? A?????????????
B????????????1.6??
C?????????2000??? ?
D????????????44?
22
??FTAs/RTAs????

• ??WTO??,?????????????????FTAs/RTAs??290????2005?1?
  ??,?????????????????162?,??101??FTA?????2005?????3
  00?FTAs/RTAs?
• ????WTO??????FTA,?????????????FTAs/RTAs?
• ?????????????????,??????
• ,??????????

23
??FTA/RTA????????,2005????300??
2003 ????
2005
1999 ?????
1995 WTO??
1967 EC??
??WTO???
24
??????????
1999???????2003???????,??????????????????,????
?????????????,???????????????

? ? ? ?
? ? ? ?
? ? ? ?
25
????????
EU(25?) ?? 4?5530?? GDP 12?6906???
???????(AFTA) ?? 5?4436?? GDP 7844???
NAFTA(???????) ?? 4?2921?? GDP 13?3237???
?? ?? 12?9650?? GDP 1?6493???
EU???
EU?(??)
GCC(???????)
??? ??? ?UAE1
? ?
??
?EU
??
?SACU
EU?????
?GCC
??(??)
????
EU.GCC
ACP2-EU ????
????
??(?)
????
EU?????
DR-CAFTA
?GCC
??
EU??
????
??
?SACU
?????
SAFTA(???????)
????
FTAA(???????)
??
SACU(??)


???GDP?2004??? 1UAE???????? 2ACP??????????
????????70?
25
26

27
? ? ? ?

??????? FTAA 34?(????)
?? ???(1985) ??(2000) ???(2003)
??(2003) ??(2004) ???(2004) ???-
?? ?? ?? ??? ???
??????? (1994)
?????????
?????? (1995)
???????????? DR-CAFTA(2005)
28
? ? ? ?

????(???)??
?????(2002)????(2005) ????(2003)
???? ?????(2002)????(2000)?EFTA (2002) ???(2003)
??? (2003) ???(2004????) ??? ?????(1983)????
(2000) ?????(1983)????(2003)???(2004)???(2004)
????? CEPA(2003)
??-??FTA (2012???)
AFTA(1992)
29
????????
?????/10???

FTAA EU-25 ASEAN3
?? (?????) 851.3 (13.32) 442.4 (6.92) 2028.4 (31.73)
GDP (?????) 13,537.7 (37.36) 10989.9 (30.33) 7373.5 (20.35)
???? (?????) 1,393.7 (18.63) 3084.4 (41.22) 1561.7 (20.87)
???? (?????) 1,899.6 (24.46) 3029.5 (39.01) 1365.1 (17.58)
?????? 50.9 67.6 38.6
????IFS year book 2003Direction of Trade,year
book 2003.
30
????????

• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????CEP?EPA?

?????? (Economic Partnership Agreement) ?????????(
JSEPA) ???????????????????????
?????????????? ???????
EPA
?????? (Closer Economic Partnership) ????????? FTA
?????????
CEP
FTA
31

• ???????????????
• 1997???????????,???????????????????
• ??EU?????NAFTA?????????????????????
• WTO????????????
• ?????,???????????????????????,???????,????????????
  ?????????

32
????????

• ????????????(ASEAN),??????????????????????????????
  ???????????????,?1967?????
• 1984?1?8??????,??????????(?????????????),??1995?7?
  28?????,1997?7?23????????,1999?4??????,???????????
  
• 1992??????ASEAN?????,???????????????????????(Agree
  ment on the Common Effective Preferential Tariff
  Scheme for AFTA),???2008????????????(AFTA)?
• 1995???????????????????????,??????AFTA????,???2003
  ????????????
• 1999??????????????,?????????2010??????????,???????
  ?????????????????2018????????????
• 2003?10?7???????????9????????????????(Bali
  Concord ?)?,???2020???????????????????????(ASEAN
  Economic Community, AEC)

? ?
33
????????

34
????????

• 2001?11????????????,??????????????????????????
• 2002?11?????????????????????????,????????10????AS
  EAN-CHINA FTA?,????????????????
• 2003?10?6????2010????????,??2004?1?1?????????????-
  ???????(Early Harvest Programme,EHP) ?
• 2004?11?29??????????-?????????????????

35
???????????(ASEAN3)

• 1998?????????????????? ?
• 2000?11???????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????(?????????????),??????????????2020???????????
  ??????
• ?????????????????????????????????????????
• ?????????????2001?2?27???,????????????
• 2002???????????????????????????

36
????????????????
(?) ????? (?) ?????? (?) WTO-PLUS???????
37
???????????

• 1.???????????????????,??????????????,????????
• 2.ASEAN1??????????
• ???????????????????
• ??????????????????
• 3.??????????????FTA,??????????????????,???????????
  ,?????????

38
???????????

• 4.??????????????FTA,?????????
• 5.??????????
• 6.???????????????????

39
??????????,??????
??

• 1?????WTO????????????
• 2?????APEC??????,???????
• ?????
• 3?????FTA?
• 4????????????
• 5???????????,?????????
• ?????

40
????????,??????
??

• 6???????????????
• 7???????????????,?????
• ????????
• 8??????????,???????????
• 9?????????????????????
• ???
• 10?????????????????????
• ????,?????????????