The common use of the Nile: survival and implications for regional/continental security

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The common use of the Nile survival and
implications for regional/continental security

• by
• Debay Tadesse Ph.D
• Institute for Security Studies
• Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
• November 17, 2009

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Outline

• Overview of available water resources in the Nile
  Basin regions
• Water and Food security
• Energy and Water
• Possibility of conflict and cooperation
• Current water management policies of Egypt,
  Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
• Recommendations and the way forward

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Political Map of Africa
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Physical Map of Africa
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INTRODUCTION

• United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP)
  increasing numbers of African countries face
  water stress scarcity and land degradation.
• Africa is not the driest continent in the world.
  
• It has a reticulation of over 54 drainage basins
• The Nile is the longest river in the world (6,825
  km) or about (4240 miles) in the world
• 40 percent of the African population directly
  depend on the Nile River for their livelihood

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• Recurrent famine since the 1980s.
• The hunger in Ethiopia has become so chronic
• In 2000, about 13 million Ethiopians have been
  fed with 1.7 million tons of food
• Currently over 10 million people are threatened
  by famine
• Reliable access to water
• Environmental degradation, recurrent drought and
  famine in Ethiopia is lack of water management.

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The Nile Basin Disequilibrium

• No comprehensive agreement on the use of the Nile
  river
• The few agreements that exist so far are entered
  between the two downstream riparian states the
  Sudan and Egypt
• No cooperation and coordinated development
  planning among the ten riparian states.
• The Nile basin has not made any significant
  contribution to the welfare, of its close to 300
  million inhabitants who are among the most
  impoverished and who comprise six of the worlds
  ten least developed countries.
• Allocations of water resources to meet basic
  human needs, food security, energy, and economic
  development while maintaining the integrity of
  aquatic ecosystems is needed in this region.

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Water and Food Security

• Unpredictable rain fall as a result of climate
  change, luck of water management and drought,
  failure of crops are making food security
  impossible in this region.
• Water and food security are closely related
• Reliable access to water increases agricultural
  yields
• Lack of water management can be a major cause of
  droughts, famine and undernourishment
• The availability of irrigation water enables more
  crops to be grown per year and increase in
  year-round farming and employment opportunities.
  

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• Currently all the Nile riparian states have drawn
  ambitious national water development plans
• These plans are often carried out on unilateral
  and non-consultative bases
• This creates further competition for fresh water.
  
• A continued unilateralist approach with regards
  to water development is expected
• Beyond dispute such a unilateral approach is
  conflict laden and incompatible with a more
  cooperative approach.

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Water and Energy

• For more than 85 of the 300 million people in
  the Nile basin riparian countries, energy is
  about wood, waste, dung, candles and kerosene.
• Fuel supply in this region is mainly biomass
  based (90 of total energy supply).
• Utilizing energy efficiently is crucial in order
  to provide adequate water for agriculture and
  livestock development and for human consumption.

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Cooperation and Conflict

• The competition for scarce water resources is
  intense
• One reason for environmental degradation,
  recurrent drought and famine in this region is
  lack of water management
• An important strategic plan to overcoming the
  problem of recurrent drought and famine is for
  the riparian states to concentrate on the
  efficient utilization of the Nile water.
• it is essential for the authorities not only to
  develop water resources but also to protect the
  regions environment and natural resources
• Insure the environmental basis of sustainable
  development in the region.

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EGYPTS WATER POLICY

• Law of Prior Appropriation
• The concept of
• Historical Rights
• Acquired Rights
• Established Rights
• The derivatives and extensions of the Law of
  Prior Appropriation

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SUDANS WATER POLICYIn both the 1929
and 1959 Nile Waters agreements, Sudan accepted
the concept of acquired rights, Sudan currently
acknowledges that this concept is not the sole
basis for international agreement Sudans
policy regarding Nile River water seems to be
guided by the dual principles of acquired and
equitable and reasonable use of shared water
resources. Sudans policy on the issue of water
use by other riparian countries is generally more
cautious and accommodating.
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ETHIOPIAS WATER POLICY

• Unlike Egypt and Sudan, Ethiopia does not
  advocate the principle of acquired rights
• Instead, it consistently promotes the concept of
  equitable entitlement as the best way to settle
  Nile water-allocation issues.
• This concept has been the dominant feature of
  Ethiopias policy in the last four decades, even
  though there were times when it took a more
  monopolistic approach.

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Uganda Tanzania Kenya

• The East African Nile Basin countries of Uganda,
  Kenya, Tanzania were unable to exploit the Nile
  waters for consumptive uses during the colonial
  era.
• The treaties which were concluded on their behalf
  by the colonial power in 1929 including the 1959
  agreement between Egypt and Sudan had their hands
  tied
• Until late 1950s and early 1960s, all of the
  three upper White Nile River riparian countries
  were under British
• After the East African states gained their
  independence, almost all of them repudiated
  treaties concluded on their behalf by the
  colonial powers
• Despite such statements, Uganda still abides by
  some of the colonial era agreements, such as the
  Owen Falls Agreement,

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• In 2004, Tanzania unilaterally announced the
  establishment of a 170 kilometer water pipeline
  from Lake Victoria
• Only months earlier, the Kenyan government,
  another riparian country on the Nile basin,
  asserted that it will not accept any
  restrictions on the use of Lake Victoria and
  River Nile, and announced that it would
  unilaterally withdraw from the 1929 treaty.

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NO COMPREHENSIVE AGREEMENT

• There is no comprehensive agreement on the use of
  the Nile river
• The need for long-term environmentally and
  socially sustainable development
• Cooperation among these countries is badly
  needed.
• There is plenty of water in the region

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• Tension among the Nile basin countries
• The water needs of the upper Nile basin riparian
  countries are barely being met
• The only viable alternative is cooperation, a
  non-zero sum game, where the result is a win-win
  solution

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Latest development

• On 22 of May 2009 Ministers of Water from the
  Nile Basin Initiative Member states met in
  Kinshasa, DRC.
• The purpose of the meeting is to forge a way
  forward in finalizing the outstanding issues
  (Article 14b, Water Security) of the draft
  Cooperative Framework Agreement of the Nile Basin
  Initiative.
• The package proposed in Kinshasa, has 39 articles
  and 66 sub-articles.
• Following this meeting, the 17th annual meeting
  of the Nile Council of Ministers of in charge of
  water affairs was held from 27-28 July 2009 in
  Alexandria, Egypt.
• At the two days meeting in Cairo despite further
  discussion on the article 14B, no compromise
  could be reached.
• Sudan and Egypt pushed for a six month extension.

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THE NEED FOR COOPERATION

• Ethiopia can stop silting
• Boost upstream water shortage
• Reduce annual Nile Floods
• Decreasing the evaporation would increase the
  total volume of available water
• According to J.A. Allan, the Ethiopian storage
  facilities could increase water availability for
  Egypt as much as 15 billion cubic meter per year

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RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

• Both the 1929 and the 1959 agreements were only
  bilateral
• Discuss the issue of the Nile with a desire of
  finding a win-win solution
• Food security, safe drinking water, sanitation,
  and environmental sustainability will depend on
  the efficient management of the Nile Water
• Human resources and capacity building are needed
• The potential for acute inter-state conflict over
  the Nile water arises primarily because there is
  no comprehensive agreement
• A strong riparian cooperation and coordination,
  through transbounday activities is also needed

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• Given the degree of mistrust characterizing the
  Nile riparian countries, securing the
  participation of all these countries in a project
  dealing with the development of the Nile waters
  should be considered a significant move in the
  direction of cooperation.
• The third parties may be able to play a very
  marginal role in the Nile basins hydropolitics
• Any meaningful achievement in this respect would
  come, first and foremost, from within-through
  good political will and combined efforts of the
  riparian states themselves.
• To ensure sustainable development, the upper
  riparian states needs to appropriately utilize
  and simultaneously conserve their natural
  resources.
• The need to shift away from reliance on emergency
  food aid to long-term environmentally and
  socially sustainable development, including
  irrigation and watershed management, is
  imperative.

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• The attainment of food security, safe drinking
  water, sanitation, and environmental
  sustainability will depend on the efficient
  management of the Nile water and meaningful
  economic co-operation among the Nile basin
  countries.
• In this regard, the ways in which constrains of
  access to water and energy services by the rural
  poor should be addressed.

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• Water is life