?????? ?? ??????? ?????????? (??? ???????)- WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION

1
?????? ?? ??????? ?????????? (??? ???????)-
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION

• On the morning of July 16, 1945, at 52945
  a.m., a group of scientists, army officials, and
  famous personalities - including British
  ambassador Lord Halifax and Harvard president Dr.
  James B. Conant - witnessed the detonation of
  "Fat Man," a thirteen-pound plutonium bomb, which
  caused a blaze of light and heat more brilliant
  than the rising sun. The eighteen-kiloton
  explosion shattered windows 120 miles from
  Trinity and rumbled as far as 250 miles away. The
  intense heat of the blast melted the surrounding
  sand into a green, glassy, radioactive substance
  dubbed "Trinitite," which litters the site to
  this day.

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• 1. ????? ? ????? ?????? ?? ??????? ??????????
• 2. ????????? ??????
• 3. ???????? ? ???????? ??????
• 4. ????????????? ?????? ?? ??????? ??????????
• 5. ??????????

4
1. ????? ? ????? ?????? ?? ??????? ??????????
5
??????????

• ?????? ?? ??????? ?????????? ????????? ?? ??
  ??????????????? ?????? ?? ???????? ?????????????
  ????????? ???? ????????? ? ?? ??????????
  ?????????????????? ????? ????? ???? ?? ???????
  (????? ?. ?????????)
• ?????? ?? ??????? ???????, ?? ?? ???????
  ?????????? (??? ???????)

6
???? ??????

• ????? ?????????? ???????? ???? ??????????????
  ??????
• ???????? ????????? (DETERRENCE)-?? ?????? ????
• ?????????? ???????? ????????????? ? ????-?? ????
  ?????
• ??????? ??? ????? ?? ????? ????? ?????? ???? ??
  ???? ?? ?????????
• ?????? ??????, ??????, ????????, ????, ????,
  ????? ?????? ? ??????? ??????

7
????? ?????? ?? ??????? ??????????

• ????????? ??????
• ???????? ??????
• ???????? ??????

8
2. ????????? ??????

• As the bomb fell over Hiroshima and exploded, we
  saw an entire city disappear. I wrote in my log
  the words My God, what have we done Capt.,
  Robert Lewis, U. S. Army Air Corps, copilot of
  the Enola Gay
• - A World without nuclear weapons would be lees
  stable and more dangerous for all of us- former
  British prime minister Margaret Thatcher

9

• 2.1. ?????, ????????? ? ????? ?????????? ??????
• 2.2. ??????? ????????? ?????? (??????? ?????)
• 2.3. ??????? ????????? ??????
• 2.4. ?????? ?????????? ? ????????? (DELIVERY)
• 2.5. ????????? ??????????
• 2.6. ??????????? ? ????????????? ????????? ????
  ?????

10
2.1. ?????????, ????? ? ????? ?????????? ??????
11
?????????

• ????? ??????? ??? ? ????????
• ???????
• ?????? ??????????, ?????? ???, ?????? ????????...
• ??????? ????????
• ????????? ??????
• ?????? ? ??????? ?????
• 16. ??? 1945. ??????- ???? ???????
• ?????? ? ?????? ? ???????? ??????? ?? ???
• ????????? ???????? ? ??????????? ??????
• 6. ? 9. ?????? 1945.- ???????? ? ???????? ("
  LITTLE BOY ? FAT MAN)
• ???????? ?? ???????? ?????????? ????????? ?
  ??????? ????
• ??? ? ????????? ?????????? ?????????? ?????
  ?????? ???????? ???? ? ????????? ??? ?? ????? (2
  ????? 1947. ? 50 1948.)
• ?-36

12
??????????

• ????????? ?????? ??? ?????? ???? ??? ??????
  ???????? ??????? ????????? ????????
• ???????????? ?????? ???? ?? ?? ???????????
  ????????
• ????? ???????? ????????? ???? ?? ?????? ?????
  ????? ???? ?????? ??????????
• ??????? ?????? ??? ?? ????? ?????

13
Robert Oppenheimer and Lesley Grows
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Little boy and Hiroshima
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Bockscar and Fat Man
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????? ?????????? ??????

• ??????? ????????? ?????? (??????? ??? ?-?????)
• ??????? ????????? ?????? (?????????????? ?????,
  ??????????? ????? ??? ?-?????)

23
??????? ????????? ?????? (??????? ??? ?-?????)

• ????????????? ? ????????? ?? ??????????
• ???? ?? ???????? ?????? (??????) ????? ????????
  ???? ?? ????????? ???? ???????????? ? ????????
  ????? ???????????? ??????? ?Mx(CxC)-???? ????,
  ?????? ????????
• ??????? ??? ???????? ???????? ???? ?? ??????? ?
  ?? ????? ????????-235 (?-235) ? ??????????

24
???? ???? ????????? ???????

• ?? ?? ?? ?????? ???????? ???? ???? ??
  ???????????? ????? ????? ????????? ?? ? ?????
  ????? ???? "?????????? ???????????????
  ??????????? ? ??????? ????? ?? ???? ?? ??????
  ?????? ?????????

25
??????? ????????

• ????????
• ??????????

26
???????? ?? ?????? ????????

• ????????
• ??? ??? ???? ????????? ??????? ?? ????? ???????
  ?????
• ?-235 ?? ????? ????? ??????, ??? ????????
  ???????? ?????? ???? ?? 1 ?-235
• ???????????? ?-235 ?? ????????? ????????? ??
  ????, ???? ? ???????? ????? ???????? ??????

27

• Uranium occurs naturally in underground deposits
  consisting of a mixture of 0.7 uranium-235,
  which is easily fissionable, and about 99.3
  uranium-238, which is not fissionable. Nuclear
  weapons require "enrichment" to increase the
  proportion of U235 to 90 or more. This is called
  Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU). Nuclear reactors
  require enrichment to about 3 - 5 of U-235.
  This is called Low Enriched Uranium (LEU).
• HEU can be combined with plutonium to form the
  "pit", or core of a nuclear weapon, or it can be
  used alone as the nuclear explosive. The bomb
  dropped on Hiroshima used only HEU. About 15-20
  kgs of HEU are sufficient to make a bomb without
  plutonium.

28
???????? ?? ?????? ????????

• ??????????
• ?????????? ?? ???????? ?????? ?? ????????? ????
  ?? ??????? ? ?????????? ??????????
• ???????? ???? ????????? ????? ?? ????
• ??????? ?? ? ? ????????????? ??????????
  ??????????
• ????? ?????? ?? ???????? ? ???????? ???? ?? ?????
  ??????????? ? ????? ?????????????
• ??????? ????? ?? ?????? ???????? ????? ? ??? ??
  ?????? ? ????????????? ?????????? ??????
  ???????????? ?? ????? ?? ??????? ????????? ??????

29

• Plutonium is not found naturally in significant
  quantities. It is produced in a nuclear reactor
  through the absorption of neutrons by Uranium
  238. The Plutonium emerges from a nuclear reactor
  as part of the mix in spent nuclear fuel, along
  with unused uranium and other highly radioactive
  fission products. To get plutonium into a usable
  form, a second key facility, a reprocessing
  plant, is needed to chemically separate out the
  plutonium from the other materials in spent fuel.
  
• Once plutonium is separated, it can be processed
  and fashioned into the fission core of a nuclear
  weapon, called a "pit". Nuclear weapons typically
  require three to five kilograms of plutonium.
  Plutonium can also be converted into an oxide and
  mixed with uranium dioxide to form mixed-oxide
  (MOX) fuel for nuclear reactors. Britain, France,
  Russia, India, Japan, Israel and China operate
  reprocessing plants to obtain plutonium (the last
  two only for military purposes). U.S. plutonium
  production reactors were shut down in 1988.
• A number of isotopes of plutonium are produced in
  a reactor, the most common being Pu-239 which is
  easily fissionable, and Pu-240 which is not. The
  relative proportion of Pu-239 determines the
  weapons grade of the plutonium. Reactor grade Pu,
  i.e. Pu with 18 or more Pu-240, can still be
  used to make a "crude" nuclear bomb.

30
??????? ????????? ?????? (?????????????? ?????,
??????????? ??? ?-?????)

• ?????? ?????? ?? ?????, ????? ????? ? ??????????
  ????? ????????
• ??? ?????? ??????????? ?? ?? ???????, ???????????
  ? ?????????? ????????????? ??????
• ???? ????? ? ???????????????????? ?????

31

• November 1, 1952, The United States detonates the
  first hydrogen bomb, 10.4 megaton Mike , at
  Enewetak Atoll in the Marshall Islands. The
  explosion is 500 times more powerful than the
  bomb exploded at Nagasaki.

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The "Mike" shot in 1952 inaugurated the age of
fusion weapons.
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The H- Bomb
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????? ???? ??????? ???? ???? ??????? ?????

• ??????????? ??? ???????? ???? ???????? ??????
  ????? ?? ?????? 1 ? 200 ???????? (1 ?? ??????? ??
  ?????? ?? 1000 ???? ??????????????? ??????????)
• ??????????? ??? ???????? ?????????? ?????? ?????
  ?? ?? 1-20 ???????? (1 ?? ??????? ?? ?????? ??
  1000 ????????)
• ??????? ????????? ?????????? ????? ???????? ??
  ?????????? ????? ?????? ?? 1961. ?????? ???? ??
  ??????? ??????? ??????????? ????? ?? 60 ????????,
  ???? ?? ??????? ??? ???? ??? ???? ???? ???? ???
  ??????????? ???????? ????????? ? ?????? ????????
  ????

37
???? ???? ??????? ????????? ???????

• ??? ???? ?????? ??? ???? ????? (?????????
  ?????????) ??????? ?? (???? ?? ??????) ? ?????
  ???? ????, ??? ???? ?? ???????? ?????????
  ????????
• ??? ??? ?? ???????? ?? ????? ???????
  ?????????????
• ? ?? ?? ?? ??? ???????? ??????? ?? ??????? ??????

38
The Neutron Bomb

• The tactical neutron bomb is a nuclear weapon
  that maximizes damage to people but minimizes
  damage to buildings and equipment. It is also
  called an enhanced radiation warhead. The neutron
  bomb is a specialized thermonuclear weapon that
  produces a minimal blast but releases large
  amounts of lethal radiation which can penetrate
  armor or several feet of earth.
• 1962-The first neutron device is successfully
  tested.
• . U.S. production of the bomb was postponed in
  1978 and resumed in 1981."

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???? ?????????? ????????? ???????

• ?????? ??????????? ???
• ???????-????????? ??????????? ????? ?????????? 1
  ?? ?????? ??????????? ?? 100 ??????? ??????????
• ??????????
• ???????????????
• ???????? ? ????????? ? ?????
• ?? ???? ?? ???? ????? ???? ?? 2000 ??????????
  ?????
• ??????? ???????
• ??????????????? ????
• ????????? ????

42

• Blast
• Thermal radiation
• Initial nuclear radiation
• Fallout

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Blast

• The rapid release of energy in an explosion
  creates a shock wave of overpressure. Very close
  to the centre of a nuclear explosion,
  overpressure is equivalent to several thousand
  pounds per square inch (psi). This is hundreds of
  times greater than the pressure in a pressure
  cooker.
• The overpressure crushes objects. Human lungs are
  crushed at about 30 psi overpressure. Brick
  houses are destroyed at about 10-15 psi
  overpressure. The blast also generates high
  velocity winds which can turn humans or objects
  into missiles. At 15 - 20 psi the winds can fling
  a person at several hundred kilometres per hour

45
The effects of the blast wave on a typical wood
framed house.
46
Blast effects on a concrete building at
Hiroshima.
47
Thermal radiation

• Thermal radiation includes light and heat.
  Nuclear weapons release a huge amount of energy
  as light (ultraviolet, visible and infrared).
  This light is so intense that it can make sand
  explode, blind people many miles away, burn
  shadows into concrete, burn skin and ignite
  flammable materials at large distances.
• The heat at the centre of the explosion
  (epicentre) is so intense as to vapourise most
  materials. The thermal radiation creates a
  fireball which expands rapidly outwards consuming
  oxygen and, combined with the blast effect,
  creating near total destruction for some distance
  from the epicentre.

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• Temperatures of a nuclear explosion reach those
  in the interior of the sun, about 100,000,000
  Celsius, and produce a brilliant fireball.
• The fireball, an extremely hot and highly
  luminous spherical mass of air and gaseous weapon
  residues, occurs within less than one millionth
  of one second of the weapon's detonation.
  Immediately after its formation, the fireball
  begins to grow in size, engulfing the surrounding
  air.
• It has then risen roughly 4.5 miles from the
  point of burst.

49
Illustrated components of a nuclear explosion.
50
The mushroom cloud forming at the Nevada Test
Site.
51

• One of the important differences between a
  nuclear and conventional weapon is the large
  proportion of a nuclear explosion's energy that
  is released in the form of thermal energy. This
  energy is emitted from the fireball in two
  pulses. The first is quite short, and carries
  only about 1 percent of the energy the second
  pulse is more significant and is of longer
  duration (up to 20 seconds).

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The thermal pulse charring the paint
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• Under some conditions, the many individual fires
  created by a nuclear explosion can coalesce into
  one massive fire known as a "firestorm.
• For a firestorm to develop
• There must be at least 8 pounds of combustibles
  per square foot.
• At least one-half of the structures in the area
  are on fire simultaneously.
• There is initially a wind of less than 8 miles
  per hour.
• The burning area is at least 0.5 square miles.
• In Hiroshima, a firestorm did develop and about
  4.4 square miles were destroyed. Although there
  was some damage from uncontrolled fires at
  Nagasaki, a firestorm did not develop. One reason
  for this was the difference in the terrain.
  Hiroshima is relatively flat, while Nagasaki has
  uneven terrain.

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The firestorm at Hiroshima
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• Flash Burns
• Flash burns are one of the serious consequences
  of a nuclear explosion. Flash burns result from
  the absorption of radiant energy by the skin of
  exposed individuals. A distinctive feature of
  flash burns is the fact they are limited to
  exposed areas of the skin facing the explosion.

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• A 1-megaton explosion can cause first-degree
  burns (a bad sunburn) at a distance of about 7
  miles, second-degree burns (producing blisters
  and permanent scars) at distances of about 6
  miles, and third-degree burns (which destroy skin
  tissue) at distances up to 5 miles. Third-degree
  burns over 24 percent of the body, or
  second-degree burns over 30 percent, will result
  in serious shock, and will probably prove fatal
  unless prompt, specialized medical care is
  available.
• It has been estimated that burns caused some 50
  percent of the deaths at Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

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The burns are in a pattern corresponding to the
dark portions of the kimonoshe was wearing at
the time of the explosion.
59

• Flash blindness
• Flash blindness is caused by the initial
  brilliant flash of light produced by the nuclear
  detonation. The light is received on the retina
  than can be tolerated, but less than is required
  for irreversible injury. The retina is
  particularly susceptible to visible and short
  wavelength infrared light. The result is a
  bleaching of visual pigment and temporary
  blindness. Vision is completely recovered as the
  pigment is regenerated.
• During the daylight hours, flash blindness does
  not persist for more than 2 minutes, but
  generally lasts a few seconds. At night, when the
  pupil is dilated, flashblindness will last for a
  longer period of time.
• A 1-megaton explosion can cause flash blindness
  at distances as great as 13 miles on a clear day,
  or 53 miles on a clear night. If the intensity is
  great enough, a permanent retinal burn will
  result.

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Initial nuclear radiation

• Initial radiation consists mostly of gamma rays
  and neutrons which are generated in the nuclear
  reaction and can enter the human body directly.
  In general a radiation dose of 400 rads will be
  lethal to 50 or more of the exposed population.
  These deaths occur within about 6 - 7 weeks.

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Fallout

• Fallout consists of large numbers of particles,
  from the earth, buildings and other ground
  objects, which are irradiated by the explosion,
  mixing with the radioactive products of the
  explosion itself and then being distributed over
  a wide area by wind. An example of a fallout
  pattern is given in the table.
• There are a large number of radioactive products
  from a nuclear explosion. These lodge in
  different parts of the body (table ). The
  radioactive products emit different types of
  radiation - alpha particles, beta particles or
  gamma rays, which differ in the degree of damage
  they can do. Alpha particles do the most damage
  once inside the body, but do little damage
  outside as they cannot penetrate skin.
• There is no known way of nuetralising a
  radioactive substance, apart from sending it
  through a nuclear reactor. Thus, radioactive
  products are dangerous until they have decayed to
  such an extent that they no longer emit
  significant amounts of radiation. This time is
  usually considered to be 10 times the half-life.
• The effects of fallout persist for hundreds of
  years, although the relative risk reduces over
  time.

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Electromagnetic Pulse

• Electromagnetic pulse (EMP) is an electromagnetic
  wave similar to radio waves, which results from
  secondary reactions occurring when the nuclear
  gamma radiation is absorbed in the air or ground.
  It differs from the usual radio waves in two
  important ways. First, it creates much higher
  electric field strengths. Whereas a radio signal
  might produce a thousandth of a volt or less in a
  receiving antenna, an EMP pulse might produce
  thousands of volts. Secondly, it is a single
  pulse of energy that disappears completely in a
  small fraction of a second. In this sense, it is
  rather similar to the electrical signal from
  lightning, but the rise in voltage is typically a
  hundred times faster. This means that most
  equipment designed to protect electrical
  facilities from lightning works too slowly to be
  effective against EMP.

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The range of the EMP effects of a high altitude
burst
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Ozone Depletion

• When a nuclear weapon explodes in the air, the
  surrounding air is subjected to great heat,
  followed by relatively rapid cooling. These
  conditions are ideal for the production of
  tremendous amounts of nitric oxides. These oxides
  are carried into the upper atmosphere, where they
  reduce the concentration of protective ozone.
  Ozone is necessary to block harmful ultraviolet
  radiation from reaching the Earth's surface.

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Nuclear Winter

• In 1983, R.P. Turco, O.B. Toon, T.P. Ackerman,
  J.B. Pollack, and Carl Sagan (referred to as
  TTAPS) published a paper entitled "Global
  Atmospheric Consequences of Nuclear War" which is
  the foundation on which the nuclear winter theory
  is based on.
• Theory states that nuclear explosions will set
  off firestorms over many cities and forests
  within range. Great plumes of smoke, soot, and
  dust would be sent aloft from these fires, lifted
  by their own heating to high altitudes where they
  could drift for weeks before dropping back or
  being washed out of the atmosphere onto the
  ground. Several hundred million tons of this
  smoke and soot would be shepherded by strong
  west-to-east winds until they would form a
  uniform belt of particles encircling the Northern
  Hemisphere.

66

• It is not certain that a nuclear war would
  produce a nuclear winter effect. However, it
  remains a possibility and the TTAPS study
  concluded "...the possibility of the extinction
  of Homo Sapiens cannot be excluded."

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• These thick black clouds could block out all but
  a fraction of the sun's light for a period as
  long as several weeks. The conditions of
  semidarkness, killing frosts, and subfreezing
  temperatures, combined with high doses of
  radiation from nuclear fallout, would interrupt
  plant photosynthesis and could thus destroy much
  of the Earth's vegetation and animal life. The
  extreme cold, high radiation levels, and the
  widespread destruction of industrial, medical,
  and transportation infrastructures along with
  food supplies and crops would trigger a massive
  death toll from starvation, exposure, and disease.

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???????????????

• ?????? ?????? ???? ??? ??????? ?????
• - ???????????? ? ???????????

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• There were 18 Japanese who survived the atomic
  attack on Hiroshima, were among those who fled to
  Nagasaki and then also survived the atomic attack
  on that city three days later

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2.4. ?????? ?????????? ? ??????? (DELIVERY)
?????????? ??????
71

• ????????? ?????? ?? ???? "???????" ?? ???????
  ???? ?? ????? ?? ???????? ??????

72

• ??????- ?? ?-29, ????? ?-36 ?? ??????????
  ?????????? ??????????
• ????????? ????? ??????????????? ????????????
  ??????? ???? ?????-?????? ? ????????????????
  ???????? ???????
• SUBMARINE LAUNCHED MISSILES (SLBMs)
• ?????????? ?????? (BALLISTIC MISSILES)
• ????????? ??????

73
???????????? ??????????
74
B 29 Superfortress
75
B 36 "Peacemaker"
76

• The Convair B-36 was a strategic bomber built by
  Convair for the United States Air Force, the
  first to have truly intercontinental range.
  Unofficially nicknamed the "Peacemaker", the B-36
  was the first thermonuclear weapon delivery
  vehicle, the largest piston aircraft ever to be
  mass-produced, and the largest warplane of any
  kind. Although there have been larger military
  aircraft, they have all been transports.

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B 52
78

• Air Combat Command's B-52 is a long-range, heavy
  bomber that can perform a variety of missions.
  The bomber is capable of flying at high subsonic
  speeds at altitudes up to 50,000 feet (15,166.6
  meters). It can carry nuclear or precision guided
  conventional ordnance with worldwide precision
  navigation capability.
• The use of aerial refueling gives the B-52 a
  range limited only by crew endurance. It has an
  unrefueled combat range in excess of 8,800 miles
  (14,080 kilometers)

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SUBMARINE LAUNCHED MISSILES
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Trident II
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Tomahawk
83
?????????? ??????

• ?????? ??????????? ?????????? ??????
• ??? ???? ????????? ?????? ????? ??? ????????????
  ? ???????? ?? ?? ????
• ???? 50 000 ???? ????? ?????????, ??? ?? ????
  ????????? ??????????
• ?????? ????????

84
Peenemünde Museum replica of the first successful
V-2 rocket.

• The Vergeltungswaffe 2 ("Reprisal weapon 2")
  (V-2), also known as the A4 (Aggregat 4), was an
  early ballistic missile used by the German Army
  primarily against Belgian and British targets
  during the later stages of World War II. The V-2
  was the first man-made object launched into
  space, during test flights that reached an
  altitude of 189 km (117 miles). It was the
  progenitor of the space race, which ultimately
  put men on the moon, and resulted in probes that
  have now left our solar system.

85
????? ??????????? ??????

• ???????? ????? ?? 500 ?? 1000 ???? (SHORTRANGE
  BALLISTIC MISSILES)-?????? ???????? ?
  ???????????????????? ?????
• ?????? ??????? ?????? ?? 1000 ?? 5000 ????
  (INTERMEDIATE BALLISTIC MISSILES)
• ???????????? ?????? ????? 5000 ????-????????? ??
  ?????? ?? ?????? (INTERCONTINENTAL BALISTIC
  MISSILES- ICBMs)

86
The United States divides missiles into four
range classes

• Intercontinental Ballistic Missile ICBM over 5500
  kilometers
• Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile IRBM 3000 to
  5500 kilometers
• Medium-Range Ballistic Missile MRBM 1000 to 3000
  kilometers
• Short-Range Ballistic missile SRBM up to 1000
  kilometers

87
The Soviet and Russian military developed a
system of five range classes

• Strategic over 1000 kilometers
• Operational-Strategic 500 to 1000 kilometers
• Operational 300 to 500 kilometers
• Operational-Tactical 50 to 300 kilometers
• Tactical up to 50 kilometers

88
Intercontinental Ballistic Missile ICBM
89

• Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) have
  ranges of greater than 5,500 km. ICBMs create a
  problem because they enable a country to break
  out of a regional context and move toward
  potential global impact. Regardless of the origin
  of a conflict, a country may involve the entire
  world simply by threatening to spread the war
  with an ICBM.

90
SM-68B Titan II
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Topolj-m
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?????????? ?????? "????????? ?????"

• ???, ?????? ? ???? 13 000 (????? ????)
• ?????????-4600, ?????????- 3700 (SBLMs, ?????
  ????)
• ??????? ?????? 800-3000 (????? ????? ??????,
  ??????, ????, ?????)
• ?????? 150-1500 (????? ????????, ????,
  ??????????, ????, ??????, ??????)
• ???????? 175-400 (????? ??????)
• ???? 300-1250 (????? ????, ??????, ??????????,
  ??????, ??????, ??????, ????? ???????, ??????,
  ??????)
• ????? ???????
• ??????
• ????
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• ??????
• ?????
• ????????? ??????? ???????
• ??????????
• ????? ??????
• ????????
• ??????????
• ????????
• ????????

98
2.5. ????????? ??????????
99
????? ??????????? ??????????

• ????????? ?????????? ?? ?????? ?? ???? ?? ??????
  ???????? ?????? ?? ????????????????? ?????????,
  ???? ?? ?? ?????????? ?? ???, ? ???? ?? ??
  ????????????? ? ?????????? ?? ?????????

100
?????????? ??????? ???????

• ??? ?????? ????
• ????? ??????????
• ????????????

101
?????????? ?????????? ????????

• ????? ????????
• ??? ??????
• ????????????

102
??? (MUTUAL ASSURED DESTRUCTION)

• ???? ?? ???????????? ?????????? ?????????? ??????
• ?????????? ?? ???? ?????
• ?????????? ?? ????? ?????

103

• The End of MAD? The Nuclear Dimension of U.S.
  Primacy Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press
• The age of MAD, however, is waning. Today the
  United States stands on the verge of attaining
  nuclear primacy vis-à-vis its plausible great
  power adversaries. For the first time in decades,
  it could conceivably disarm the long-range
  nuclear arsenals of Russia or China with a
  nuclear first strike. A preemptive strike on an
  alerted Russian arsenal would still likely fail,
  but a surprise attack at peacetime alert levels
  would have a reasonable chance of success.
  Furthermore, the Chinese nuclear force is so
  vulnerable that it could be destroyed even if it
  were alerted during a crisis. To the extent that
  great power peace stems from the pacifying
  effects of nuclear weapons, it currently rests on
  a shaky foundation.

104

• We use the term nuclear primacy to describe the
  situation in which the one country with primacy
  can destroy its adversarys nuclear retaliatory
  capabilities in a disarming strike.
• In the last fifteen years, however, the strategic
  nuclear balance has shifted profoundly. Part of
  the shift is attributable to the decline of the
  Russian arsenal. Compared with the Soviet force
  in 1990, Russia has 58 percent fewer
  intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), 39
  percent fewer bombers, and 80 percent fewer
  ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs).16
  Furthermore, serious maintenance and readiness
  problems plague Russias nuclear forces.
• China has only 18 single-warhead missiles that
  can reach the U.S. homeland If the United States
  can destroy all of Russias long-range nuclear
  systems in a first strikeas we argue it could
  possibly do todayit suggests that the Chinese
  strategic nuclear arsenal is far more vulnerable.

105
SDI (Strategic Defense Initiative)- ??? ??????"

• ?????? ????? ? "????? ?????? ???
• 23. 3. 1983.
• ?????? ??? ??????? ?? ?????? ????
• ??????????? ? ??????

106
(No Transcript)
107
2.6. ???????? ?????????? ?????????
108
??????????? ????????? ???-???? (??????)

• SALT I 1972.
• SALT II 1979.
• INF TREATY 1987.
• START I 1991.
• START II 1993.
• STRATEGIC OFFENSIVE REDUCTION TREATY 2002. (RIM)

109
SALT ( STRATEGIC ARMS LIMITATION TREATY) I- 1972.

• ABM TREATY (ANTIBALLISTIC MISSILE TREATY-????? ??
  ???? ?????? ???????, ?????? ? ?????????)
• ??????????? "?????????? ?? ?????? ????? ICBMs ?
  SLBMs

110
SALT II 1979.

• ?????? ???????????-????????? ???????????? ?
  ???????????
• ???????????? ??????????? ?????? ????? ??????, ??
  ?????? ?? 2400.
• SLBMs
• ????????? ??????????
• SURFACE TO AIR MISSILE LAUNCHERS

111
INF (INTERMEDIATE RANGE NUCLEAR FORCES) TREATY
1987.

• ??????????? ???? ?????????? ? ????????? ??????
  ??????? ??????
• ?????? ??????? ?????? ??????? ????
• ??-20 ???????

112
START I (STRATEGIC ARMS REDUCTION TREATY) 1991.

• ?? ?? ????????? ??????? ????? 15 ? ????? ?? 25
• ??? ?? 12 081 ?? 10 395
• ???? ?? 10 841 ?? 8 040

113
START II 1993.

• ?? 50 ??????? ?????????? ????????
• ????? ?? ??????????? 2000. ??????

114
STRATEGIC OFFENSIVE REDUCTION TREATY-2002.

• ?? 6 000 ?? 2 200 ?? ????? ????????
• ??????????? ??? ???????? ????????? ??????

115
?????????????? ?????????
116
THE NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY 1968.

• INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY (IAEA)
• 172 ??????????
• ??????, ????????, ??????, ?????

117
COMPREHENSIVE TEST BAN TREATY 1996.

• ?? ??????? ??? ????????? ?????
• ??? ??????
• ?????? ? ???????? 1998.

118
3. ???????? ? ???????? ??????
119
3.1. ???????? ??????

• ????????? ????????? ?????? ?????????? ??
  ?????????? ???? ??????????????? ? ??????? ????
• ??????? ???? ????? ????????? ??????, ?? ???????
  ?????? ?? ???????????? ????????

120
???????? ?????? ?? ???? ???????? ? ?????? ?????

• ?) ?????????? ? ?????????????? ??? ??? ?? ???? ?
  ??????
• ?) ???? ?????? ??? ???????? ??????? ? ?????????
  ??????
• ?) ???????? ??? ??? ?? ?????? ? ????? ?
• ?) ?????? ?????? ????? ??????, ??????, ????? ? V
  ???????

121
???? ??????? ???????? ??????

• ???????? ?????? ??????, ???????, ??????? ?????? ?
  ????? ??????? ????????
• ????? ?? ??????? ?? ???-??? ????? ? ????? ?????
• ??? ?? ????????? ?????? ??? ????????

122
???????? ????????? ??????

• ???? ??????? ???
• ? ?????? ???????? ???? ???? ?????????
• ??????? ?????? ?????
• ???????????? ????? ?? ?????? ? ????? ?????? ?
  ???????????? ???????? ??????? ?????? ?? ???????
  ??????????

123
Halabja poison gas attack

• The Halabja poison gas attack was an incident on
  15 March19 March 1988 during the Iran-Iraq War
  when chemical weapons were used by the Iraqi
  government forces to kill a number of people in
  the Iraqi Kurdish town of Halabja (population
  80,000). Estimates of casualties range from
  several hundred to 7,000 people. Halabja is
  located about 150 miles northeast of Baghdad and
  8-10 miles from the Iranian border.
• Halabja was not the first time Iraq had turned
  its chemical arsenal on the Kurds. Thousands --
  and most likely tens of thousands -- of civilians
  were killed during chemical and conventional
  bombardments stretching from the spring of 1987
  through the fall of 1988. The attacks were part
  of a long-standing campaign that destroyed almost
  every Kurdish village in Iraq -- along with a
  centuries-old way of life -- and displaced at
  least a million of the country's estimated 3.5
  million Kurdish population

124
(No Transcript)
125
???????? ????????? ??????

• ???????? ???????? 1925
• ?????????? ? ????????? ?????? ?? 1992.
  ??????-??????? ?????????? ? ????????? ?????????
  ?????? ?????? ??????????
• 175 ?????? ?? ?? ?????????
• ????? ????????
• ????? ??????? ?? ??????????? 44 000 ????
  ????????? ?????? ?? ??????? ??????? ????

126
3.2. ??????? ??????

• ????????? ????????? ?????? ?????????? ??
  ?????????????? ? ?? ??? ???????? ?????? ????
  ??????????????? ? ??????? ????
• ??????, ?????????
• ??????, ??????? ? ??.
• ????? ?????? ?? ??? ???? ????

127

• ????????? ?? ????? ????? ????????? ? ????
• ????? ? ????? ???????? ?????? ? ?????? ????????
  ????
• ??????? ? ????????? ??????? ??????? ?????????
  ?????? ??? ????? ??????

128
??????? ??? ?????????? ???????? ?????????? ????
?? ???? ?? ?? ?? ????????? ? ????? ?????

• ?) ??????
• ?) ?????????
• ?) ???????
• ?) ????????
• ?) ???????

129
???????? ???????? ??????

• ?????????? ? ???????? ?????? ?? 1972. ??????- 100
  ?????? ?????????, ?????????? ? ?????? ????
• ?????? ? ?????? ??? ???????????? ?????????
• ??????? ?? ?????? ???????????

130
BW Agents Differ from CW Agents
Biological Agents Living beings Infectious
agents that replicate Incubation period
delayed onset of effects (days - weeks) A few
are contagious Diverse pathogenic effects None
volatile Not dermally active Usually no
decontamination Often dual-use medical or
research use or presence Odorless and
tasteless Many are effective immunogens Lab
clinical microbiology International law - BWC
Chemical Agents Inanimate substance Chemicals do
not replicate No incubation period - rapid onset
of effects (minutes) Not ever
contagious Fewer types of effects Many
volatile Many are dermally active Usually must be
decontaminated CW agents only for weapons
precursors some dual-use Odor and taste when
contaminated Poor immunogens Lab clinical
chemistry International law - CWC
131
Biological and Chemical Weapons as Systems

• Pathogen or chemical active ingredient of the
  system for pathogens, may be non-contagious or
  contagious
• Formulation chemical mixed with agent for
  greater stability and effective dispersal may be
  a wet or dry formulation (not necessarily
  needed for contagious)
• Munition protect agent during transport and
  while in storage (not necessarily needed for
  contagious)
• Dispersal device usually sprayer or atomizer for
  creating aerosol may be a simple mechanism such
  as syringe, ladle, etc. (not needed for
  contagious)
• A pathogen or chemical by itself is not a
  weapon.

132
(No Transcript)
133
U.S. M143 Biological Bomb - Exterior
U.S. M143 Biological Bomb - Exterior
134
U.S. M143 Biological Bomb Cross Section
U.S. M143 Biological Bomb Cross Section
135
Iraqi R 400A Aerial Biological Bomb
136
cc
137
Al Hussein Missile
Fictionalized Artists Rendition Pre-1992
138
Encapsulation Equipment
139
Encapsulated Bacteria
140
4. ????????????? ?????? ?? ??????? ??????????
141
?????????????

• ????????????? ??? ?????? ????? ?????? ????
  ???????? ???? ?? ??? ??? ?? ?????? ?? ???????
  ??????????
• ??????????????? ??????
• ??????????????? ??????
• ???????? ???? ? ??? ??????

142
(No Transcript)
143
5. ??????????

• JOSHUA S. GOLDSTEIN, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,
  LONGMAN, NEW YORK, 2004, FIFTH EDITION
• JOHN T. ROURK, INTERNATIONAL POLITICS ON THE
  WORLD STAGE, DUSHKIN MCGRAW HILL, NEW YORK, 1999,
  SEVENTH EDITION
• CARLS KEGLI JR., JUDŽIN VITKOF, SVETSKA POLITIKA,
  CENTAR ZA STUDIJE JUGOSITOCNE EVROPE, DIPLOMATSKA
  AKADEMIJA, FAKULTET POLITICKIH NAUKA, BEOGRAD,
  2004
• RADOVAN VUKADINOVIC, NUKLEARNE STRATEGIJE
  SUPERSILA, AUGUST CESAREC, ZAGREB, 1985
• RADOMIR VUJKOVIC, SPORAZUMI O KONTROLI
  NAORUŽANJA, NIU VOJSKA, BEOGRAD, 1998