COG / TPB Regional Analysis: Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations For the Metropolitan Washington Region

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COG / TPB Regional Analysis Impacts of the U.S.
Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and
Closure (BRAC) Recommendations For the
Metropolitan Washington Region

• Department of Human Services, Planning and Public
  Safety
• Department of Transportation Planning
• Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments
• Center for Regional Analysis
• George Mason University
• July 20, 2005

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COG / TPB Regional Analysis Impacts of the U.S.
Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and
Closure (BRAC) Recommendations For the
Metropolitan Washington Region

• Methodology and Assumptions for Developing
• 2010 and 2020 Job and Household Forecasts
• Resulting from BRAC Recommendations
• Analysis and Interpretation of BRAC
  Recommendations
• May 2005 U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) BRAC
  list
• Northern Virginia Regional Commission DoD leased
  facilities database
• National Capital Planning Commission federal
  employment facility file
• Meetings / conversations with DoD agencies,
  contractors, commercial real estate brokers

Assumed numbers are knowledge and judgment as of
June 27
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COG / TPB Regional Analysis Impacts of the U.S.
Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and
Closure (BRAC) Recommendations For the
Metropolitan Washington Region

• Methodology and Assumptions for Developing
• 2010 and 2020 Job and Household Forecasts
• Resulting from BRAC Recommendations
• Three Categories of Job Movements
• DOD-owned Facilities
• DOD Employees in Leased Space
• DOD Contractor Jobs (Induced)

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COG / TPB Regional Analysis Impacts of the U.S.
Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and
Closure (BRAC) Recommendations For the
Metropolitan Washington Region

• Methodology and Assumptions for Developing
• 2010 and 2020 Job and Household Forecasts
• Resulting from BRAC Recommendations

• 2010
• BRAC base and facility changes largely complete
  or underway (5/6 of job movements have occurred
  6-year implementation requirement)
• DoD workers in leased office space must be in
  facilities that meet the UFC security
  requirements - 2009
• 2020
• all BRAC DoD base realignments complete
• absorption of space or redevelopment will occur
  for leased facilities vacated in 2010 for failure
  to meet UFC standards but less new construction
  by 2020 and Household impacts

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COG / TPB Regional Analysis Impacts of the U.S.
Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and
Closure (BRAC) Recommendations For the
Metropolitan Washington Region

• Methodology and Assumptions for Developing
• 2010 and 2020 Job and Household Forecasts
• Resulting from BRAC Recommendations
• Other Impacts / Implications
• Leased-space Back-filling
• Fort Belvoir
• Employee Residence Relocation Outside Region
• Employee Residence Relocation Inside Region
• Redevelopment
• Potential Longer-term Regional Impacts -
  Decentralization

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COG / TPB Regional Analysis Impacts of the U.S.
Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and
Closure (BRAC) Recommendations For the
Metropolitan Washington Region

• 2010 Land Use Findings
• Washington region employment
• -15,030 jobs (-0.5)
• A reduction in projected employment for
• Arlington County (-19,321 jobs)
• the City of Alexandria (-7,539)
• the District of Columbia (-6,508)
• An increase in projected employment for
• Fairfax County (14,506 jobs)
• Anne Arundel County (4,450)
• Prince William County (2,500)
• Prince Georges County (1,496)
• Regional Activity Center Clusters
• -28,731 jobs (-1.2 )
• No changes in projected 2010 households

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COG / TPB Regional Analysis Impacts of the U.S.
Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and
Closure (BRAC) Recommendations For the
Metropolitan Washington Region
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COG / TPB Regional Analysis Impacts of the U.S.
Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and
Closure (BRAC) Recommendations For the
Metropolitan Washington Region
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COG / TPB Regional Analysis Impacts of the U.S.
Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and
Closure (BRAC) Recommendations For the
Metropolitan Washington Region
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COG / TPB Regional Analysis Impacts of the U.S.
Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and
Closure (BRAC) Recommendations For the
Metropolitan Washington Region

• 2020 Land Use Findings
• Washington region employment
• 13,700 jobs (0.4)
• A reduction in projected employment for
• Arlington County (-6,600 jobs)
• the District of Columbia (-4,511)
• the City of Alexandria (-2,400)
• An increase in projected employment for
• Fairfax County (21,400 jobs)
• Anne Arundel County (5,361)
• Prince William County (3,013)
• Prince Georges County (1,557)
• Households
• Prince William County (3,000 households)
• Fairfax County (2,000)
• Montgomery (1,000)
• District of Columbia (1,000)
• Regional Activity Center Clusters
• -1,617 jobs (-0.1 )

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COG / TPB Regional Analysis Impacts of the U.S.
Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and
Closure (BRAC) Recommendations For the
Metropolitan Washington Region
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COG / TPB Regional Analysis Impacts of the U.S.
Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and
Closure (BRAC) Recommendations For the
Metropolitan Washington Region
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COG / TPB Regional Analysis Impacts of the U.S.
Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and
Closure (BRAC) Recommendations For the
Metropolitan Washington Region
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COG / TPB Regional Analysis Impacts of the U.S.
Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and
Closure (BRAC) Recommendations For the
Metropolitan Washington Region

• 2010 Transportation and Air Quality Findings
• Total transit trips decrease by -18,528 (-1.84)
• Total vehicle trips increase by 26,790 (0.12)
• Vehicle miles traveled increase by 73,829
  (0.04)
• VOC emissions increase by 0.03 tons per day
  (0.05)
• NOX would increase 0.02 tons per day (0.01)

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COG / TPB Regional Analysis Impacts of the U.S.
Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and
Closure (BRAC) Recommendations For the
Metropolitan Washington Region
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COG / TPB Regional Analysis Impacts of the U.S.
Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and
Closure (BRAC) Recommendations For the
Metropolitan Washington Region
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COG / TPB Regional Analysis Impacts of the U.S.
Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and
Closure (BRAC) Recommendations For the
Metropolitan Washington Region
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COG / TPB Regional Analysis Impacts of the U.S.
Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and
Closure (BRAC) Recommendations For the
Metropolitan Washington Region

• 2020 Transportation and Air Quality Findings
• Total transit trips decrease by -6,097 (-0.52)
• Total vehicle trips increase by 84,932 (0.34)
• Total vehicle miles traveled increase by 133,435
  (0.07).
• VOC emissions would increase by 0.08 tons per day
  (0.22)
• NOX would increase 0.03 tons per day (0.07).

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COG / TPB Regional Analysis Impacts of the U.S.
Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and
Closure (BRAC) Recommendations For the
Metropolitan Washington Region
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COG / TPB Regional Analysis Impacts of the U.S.
Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and
Closure (BRAC) Recommendations For the
Metropolitan Washington Region
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COG / TPB Regional Analysis Impacts of the U.S.
Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and
Closure (BRAC) Recommendations For the
Metropolitan Washington Region
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COG / TPB Regional Analysis Impacts of the U.S.
Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and
Closure (BRAC) Recommendations For the
Metropolitan Washington Region
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COG / TPB Regional Analysis Impacts of the U.S.
Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and
Closure (BRAC) Recommendations For the
Metropolitan Washington Region

• Report Appendices
• Appendix A - Base Realignment and Closure Actions
  - D.C., MD, and VA
• Appendix B - DoD Unified Facilities Criteria
  Design Standards
• Appendix C - NCPC Urban Design Standards
• Appendix D - George Mason University Methodology
  and Assumptions
• Appendix E - November 2004 COG/NCPC Security
  Conference Summary
• Appendix F - NAIOP Article on ISC and UFC