Effects of Climate Change on Canadian Agriculture and Adaptation Opportunities

1
Effects of Climate Change on Canadian Agriculture
and Adaptation Opportunities

• Presentation to Standing Senate Committee on
  Agriculture and Forestry
• Ed Tyrchniewicz P.Ag
• President, Agricultural Institute of Canada
• February 20 2003

2
(No Transcript)
3
Outline

• But agriculture is different
• Elements of climate change and agriculture
• Benefits and concerns for agriculture
• Adaptation opportunities

4
But Agriculture is Different Some Realities ...

• Biological process of production is very
  dependent on climate and weather
• Climate variability is a fact of life risk
  management
• Ag sector generally operates in global markets
  with narrow margins and limited opportunities to
  pass costs on to customers

5
(No Transcript)
6
But Agriculture is Different Some More Realities
...

• Process of policy making in agriculture is a
  shared federal-provincial responsibility
• Focus on short term income problems
• Expanding exports is seen as a solution dealing
  with climate change is not
• Perception of agriculture as a polluter and
  destroyer of the environment

7
Elements of Climate Change

• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Variability
• more extreme weather events

risk management
8
Sources of Greenhouse Gases

• CO2 Fossil fuels, soil destruction,
  deforestation
• Methane Agriculture, landfills, coal mines,
  gas production losses
• N2O Soil, Fossil fuels, Fertilizer

9
Global Warming Potentials (GWP) and
Agricultures Emissions
10
(No Transcript)
11
Benefits to Agriculture

• potentially more heat units
• longer frost free season
• increase moisture in some drought prone areas of
  Eastern Canada
• CO2 growth enhancement

12
Concerns for Agriculture

• increased variability in climate
• raised sea level on the East and West Coasts
• increased and decreased soil moisture in
  different parts of Canada
• more/different weeds and bugs
• more erosion

13
Changes in Ecozone Boundaries
Present Day
Doubled-CO2
14
Agriculture has a history of adapting to change

• technology
• markets
• policies climate

15
Adaptation Opportunities

• Conservation tillage
• Manure management
• Shelterbelts and permanent cover
• Carbon storage
• Carbon emissions trading

16
(No Transcript)
17
Adaptation Opportunities

• Conservation tillage
• Manure management
• Shelterbelts and permanent cover
• Carbon storage
• Carbon emissions trading

18
(No Transcript)
19
Adaptation Opportunities

• Conservation tillage
• Manure management
• Shelterbelts and permanent cover
• Carbon storage
• Carbon emissions trading

20
(No Transcript)
21
Adaptation Opportunities

• Conservation tillage
• Manure management
• Shelterbelts and permanent cover
• Carbon storage
• Carbon emissions trading

22
(No Transcript)
23
Adaptation Opportunities

• Conservation tillage
• Manure management
• Shelterbelts and permanent cover
• Carbon storage
• Carbon emissions trading

24
(No Transcript)
25
(No Transcript)
26
Blessed are the Flexible

• For They Shall Not Get Bent Out Of
  Shape