Today

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• Todays Agenda
• Journal Question What is the current world
  population?
• 1. Lecture I PopulationAP exam you missed you
  must take this during class today
• 2. as per our class policy on missed exams or
  it will turn into a zero.
• 3. Great job on your AP Exam. I will hand back
  your scores and overall grade at the end of class.

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The Human Population Dimensions

• By Dr. Rick Woodward

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Casual Workers in Kenya

• A. High population growth and slow economic
  development combine to produce a large unemployed
  workforce.

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Casual Workers in Kenya

• B. Competition for scarce, low-paying factory
  jobs leaves many people without employment.
• C. Working six days a week for 10 hours a day
  and earn at most 50 a month.

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Populations

• A. A population is a group of organisms of the
  same species living in the same place at the same
  time
• B. There are millions of different populations
  all evolving according to their own self interest
  in a particular environment.

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Populations

• C. Each population is a part of the environment
  of its neighbors, so any evolutionary change has
  a ripple effect.

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Distribution of World Population 2010
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Current World Population
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Human Population Expansion

• A. It was 1830 when the world population
  reached the 1 billion mark.
• B. By 1930, just 100 years later, the
  population doubled to 2 billion.
• C. Barely 30 years later, in 1960, it reached 3
  billion.

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Human Population Expansion

• D. By 1975 (15 years later) it reached 4
  billion.
• E. Thus, the population doubled in just 45
  years, from 1930 to 1975.

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Human Population Expansion

• F. In 1987 it crossed the 5 billion mark.
• G. In 1999, world population passed 6 billion
  and is currently growing at a rate of nearly 77
  million people per year.
• H. In 2011, world population reaches 7 billion

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Human Population Expansion
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Human Population Expansion
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The Population Explosion!

• A. The U.N. Population Division projects that
  world population will pass the 7 billion mark in
  2011, the 8 billion mark in 2028, and the 9
  billion mark in 2052.

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Population Growth Internet Usage
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Middle East 2012

• A. Population Age Disparity
• (1) Population
• (2) Average Age

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Middle East 2012

1. According to the World Bank, the Middle East and
   North Africa (MENA) are to face an unprecedented
   challenge in the next two decades.
2. More than 65 percent of the regions population
   are under the age of 24.

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The World Bank

• A. An international organization dedicated to
  providing financing, advice and research to
  developing nations to aid their economic
  advancement.

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The World Bank

• B. The World Bank was created at the end of World
  War II as a result of many European and Asian
  countries needing financing to fund
  reconstruction efforts.
• C. By giving loans, and offering advice and
  training in both the private and public sectors,
  the World Bank aims to eliminate poverty by
  helping people help themselves.

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The World Bank

• D. 72 of the worlds poorest 1 billion people
  live in (so-called) middle income countries.
• E. Low-income countries are defined by the World
  Banks definition of lt 995 per person GDP.

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• Todays Agenda
• 1. Journal Question What is the function of
  the World Bank?
• 2. Lecture II Historical Patterns of Growth
  Demographic Terms
• 3. Rude Behavior Your Choice Class Cut or
  Detention
• 4. Quiz next Friday on Population Soil
• 5. Final Exam will be Comprehensive AP Exam
• 6. AP Readiness Signatures

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Looking Historically at Patterns of Growth
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Reasons for the Patterns of Growth

• A. The main reason for the slow and fluctuating
  population growth prior to the early 1800s was
  the prevalence of diseases that were often fatal
• 1. Smallpox
• 2. Diphtheria
• 3. Measles
• 4. Scarlet fever
• B. These diseases hit infants particularly hard.

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Reasons for the Patterns of Growth

• C. It was not uncommon for a woman who had
  seven or eight live births to have only one or
  two children to reach adulthood.
• D. In addition, epidemics of diseases such as
  the black plague of the 14th century, typhus, and
  cholera eliminated large numbers of adults.
• E. Famines also took their tolls periodically.

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Reason for the Patterns of Growth

• F. Prior to the 1800s the human population was
  essentially in a dynamic balance.
• G. Breakthroughs In the late 1800s, Louis
  Pasteur and others discovered that diseases were
  caused by infectious agents (now identified as
  various bacteria, viruses, and parasites) and
  that these organisms were transmitted via water,
  food, insects, and rodents.
• H. Soon vaccinations were developed for the
  different diseases.
• I. Sewage and drinking water were also treated.

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Other Breakthroughs

• A. In the 1930s the discovery of penicillin
  resulted in cures for otherwise often-fatal
  diseases such as pneumonia and blood poisoning.
• B. Improvements in nutrition and medicine.
• C. Better sanitation.
• D. The human population began growing almost
  exponentially.
• (Refer to previous slides for population
  explosion)

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How Antibiotics Work.
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Demographic Terms

• A. Growth Rate (annual rate of increase) The
  rate of growth of a population, as a percentage.
  Multiplied by the existing population, this rate
  gives the net yearly increase for the population.
• B. Total Fertility Rate The average number of
  children each woman has over her lifetime,
  expressed as a yearly rate based on fertility
  occurring during a particular year.

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Demographic Terms

• C. Infant Mortality Infant deaths per thousand
  live births.
• D. Population Profile (age structure) A bar
  graph plotting numbers of males and females for
  successive ages in the population, starting with
  youngest at the bottom.

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Demographic Terms

• E. Population Momentum The tendency of a
  population to continue growing.
• F. Crude Birth Rate The number of live births
  per thousand in a population in a given year.
• G. Crude Death Rate The number of deaths per
  thousand in a population in a given year.

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Disparities Among Nations

• A. To understand population dynamics one must
  look at the tremendous disparities among nations.
• B. In fact, people in wealthy and poor countries
  live almost in separate worlds, isolated by
  radically different economic and demographic
  conditions.

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Rich Nations, Poor Nations

• A. The World Bank, an arm of the United Nations,
  divides the countries of the world into three
  main economic categories, according to average
  per capita gross national income.
• (1) High-income, highly developed,
  industrialized countries.
• (2) Middle-income, moderately developed
  countries.
• (3) Low-income, developing countries.

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Todays Agenda

• You are required to have a Barrons AP
  Environmental Science Book for this Class (This
  was clearly written on your syllabus in bold
  print)
• Lecture III Population Growth Disparity
• AP Readiness on January 21 (UCLA)
• Final on January 30th

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High-income, highly developed, industrialized
countries

• A. This group includes the United States,
  Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, the
  countries of western Europe and Scandinavia,
  Singapore, Taiwan, Israel, and several Arab
  states.
• B. 2001 gross national income per capita, 9,206
  and above average of 26,710.

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Middle-income, moderately developed countries

• A. Mainly the countries of Latin America
  (Mexico, Central America, and South America),
  northern and southern Africa, China and some
  smaller eastern Asian countries, eastern Europe,
  and countries of the former USSR.
• B. 2001 gross national income per capita ranges
  from 745 to 9,205 average of 1,850.

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Low-income, developing countries

• A. The group comprises the countries of eastern,
  western, and central Africa, India and other
  countries of central Asia, and a few former
  Soviet republics.
• B. The 2001 gross national income per capita,
  less than 745 average of 430.

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Terminology

• A. The high-income nations are commonly referred
  to as developed countries.
• B. Middle-income and low-income countries are
  often grouped together and referred to as
  developing countries.
• (Third World Countries terminology phased out)

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Disparities

• A. The highly developed countries make up just
  16 of the worlds population, yet they control
  about 81 of the worlds wealth.
• B. The low-income developing countries, with 41
  of the worlds population, control only 3.4 of
  the worlds gross national income.

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Human Poverty Index (HPI)

• A. The Human Poverty Index (HPI), is based on
  information about
• (1) Life Expectancy
• (2) Literacy
• (3) Living Standards
• B. Between 10 - 15 of the people in developed
  countries are poor (unable to afford adequate
  food, shelter, or clothing) compared with about
  45 of those in developing countries.

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IPAT
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Population Growth in Rich and Poor Nations

• A. The developed world, with a population of
  965 million in mid-2003, is growing at a rate of
  0.1 per year. (These countries will add less
  than 1 million to the worlds population in a
  year)
• B. The remaining countries, whose mid-2003
  population was 5.35 billion, are increasing at a
  rate of almost 1.6 per year. (adding over 76
  million in a year).
• C. Consequently, over 98 of world population
  growth is occurring in the developing countries.

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The great wealth gap between rich and poor
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Pressures on the Environment

• A. Human Pressure on the environment was the
  outcome of three factors
• (1) Population
• (2) Affluence (wealth)
• (3) Technology
• I (P) (A) (T)
• I Environmental Impact

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Big Foot Prints

• A. Because of differences in consumption, the
  average American places at least 20 times the
  demand on Earths resources, including it ability
  to absorb pollutants.
• B. Major world pollution problems, including the
  depletion of the ozone layer, the impacts of
  global climate change, and the accumulation of
  toxic wastes in the environment, are largely the
  consequence of the high consumption associated
  with affluent lifestyles in the developed
  countries.

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The United States

• A. The United States, with only 5 of the worlds
  population, is currently responsible for over 24
  of the total global emissions of carbon dioxide,
  the major greenhouse gas.
• B. Likewise, much of the global deforestation
  and loss of biodiversity is due to consumer
  demands in developed countries.

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Demographic Transition

• The concept of stable, non-growing global human
  population based on people freely choosing to
  have smaller families is possible because it is
  already happening in developed countries.
• Factors that bring about demographic transition
• (1) Modernization (Economic Development)
• (2) Epidemiologic Transition

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Modernization

1. Early demographers observed that modernization of
   a nation brings about more than just a lower
   death rate resulting from better healthcare A
   decline in fertility rate also occurs as people
   choose to limit the size of their families.
2. The basic premise of the demographic transition
   is that there is a causal link between
   modernization and a decline in birth and death
   rates.

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Epidemiologic Transition

1. At present, cancer and cardiovascular disease
   account for most mortality, and many people
   survive to old age.
2. This pattern of change in mortality factors has
   been called the epidemiologic transition and
   represents one element of the demographic
   transition.
3. Epidemiology is the study of disease in human
   societies.

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Todays Agenda

• Finish population lecture
• AP Readiness Seminar at UCLA Tomorrow Attend!
• Start reviewing with your AP Readiness Exam Book
  from Barons. This is mandatory.
• We still need to cover ecology, succession, soil,
  federal laws, endangered species and mathematical
  formulas which deal with energy conversions.
• You should be studying every night for at least
  an hour. Your success is determined by your
  intrinsic motivation to succeed. I have given
  you everything that you need to know. Make me
  proud!

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Phases of the Demographic Transition

1. Phase I is the primitive stability resulting from
   a high crude birth rate being offset by an
   equally high crude death rate.
2. Phase II is marked by a declining crude death
   rate (epidemiologic transition). Because
   fertility and crude birth rates are high, the
   population growth accelerates during phase II.
3. Phase III has a declining crude birth rate, but
   population growth is still significant.
4. Phase IV has modern stability achieved by a
   continuing low crude death rate, but an equally
   low crude birth rate.
5. Developed countries have generally completed the
   demographic transition, so they are in Phase IV.
6. Developing countries are still in Phase II and
   III.

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What do developing countries need to do to
undergo the demographic transition?

• This key question has been debated for some time.
• In 1798, Thomas Malthus, a British economist,
  pointed out that populations grow exponentially,
  but there are definite limits to the expansion of
  agriculture.
• Two schools of thought
• (1) Concentrate on population policies and
  family-planning technologies to bring down birth
  rates.
• (2) Concentrate on development, population
  growth should slow down with modernization, as it
  has with developed countries.

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Key Concept

• A. Poverty, Population Growth, and Development
  (modernization) are all linked. -Placing an
  enormous impact on natural resources and
  environmental degradation.

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6 Factors that Contribute to the Population
Explosion in Developing Nations

1. Culture Large Family Size
2. Culture Fertility Rates
3. Helping Hands
4. Importance of Education
5. Status of Women
6. Availability of Contraceptives

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Culture Large Family Size

1. Security in Ones Old Age.
2. A traditional custom and expectation in
   developing countries is that old people will be
   cared for by their children.

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Culture Fertility Rates

1. Infant and childhood mortality.
2. Closely coupled with the desire for security in
   ones old age is the experience of high infant
   and childhood mortality.

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Culture Fertility Rates

• C. The common and often personal experience of
  children dying leads people to try to make sure
  that some of their children will survive as an
  old-age insurance policy.

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Helping Hands

1. Women of developing nations desire many children
   to help me with my work.
2. Women do most of the work relating to the direct
   care and support of the family.

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Importance of Education

1. In traditional, subsistence-agricultural
   societies, education often seems unnecessary, and
   this remains the case for many children in the
   developing world, especially girls.
2. Children who are sent to school soon become an
   economic liability (they still eat, but they no
   longer help grow their food), one that many in
   the poor countries cannot afford.

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Status of Women

1. The traditional social structure in many
   developing countries still discourages and, in
   many cases, bars women from obtaining higher
   education, owning businesses or land, and
   pursuing careers.
2. Such discrimination against women forces them
   into doing what only they can do bear children.
3. Often respect for women is proportional to the
   number of children she bears.

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Availability of Contraceptives

1. Studies show a strong correlation between lower
   fertility rates and the percentage of couples
   using contraception.
2. In fact, each 12 increase in contraceptive use
   translates into one less child.
3. Contraceptives are frequently unavailable or too
   expensive.

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Conclusions

1. The six factors supporting large families are
   common to pre-industrialized, agrarian societies.
2. With industrialization and development, however,
   generally come factors conducive to having small
   families.
3. These factors include the relatively high cost of
   raising children, the existence of pensions and a
   Social Security System, the existence of
   opportunities for women to join the workforce,
   free access to inexpensive contraceptives,
   adequate healthcare, wide educational
   opportunities and high educational achievement,
   and an older age (maturity) at marriage.

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Solution

• Why not just lend money to these developing
  countries to help them with their infrastructure
  development?
• Theoretically, development projects are intended
  to generate additional revenues that would be
  sufficient for the recipients to pay back their
  development loans with interest.

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The Debt Crisis

1. The World Bank, many private lenders, and wealthy
   nations lend money to developing countries.
2. Unfortunately, many developing countries are
   unable to pay back their loans because of
   corruption, mismanagement, and honest
   miscalculations.
3. Over time, developing countries as a group have
   become increasingly indebted.
4. Their total debt reached 2.44 trillion in 2001

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Ecosystem Capital

1. The debt crisis is also a crisis for ecosystems,
   because poor countries are forced to liquidate
   their ecosystem capital in order to service the
   debts they have incurred.
2. Because these countries are often areas of high
   biodiversity, liquidating the capital often means
   a loss of those habitats the preserve countless
   species that may be found nowhere else on earth.
3. It also means a loss of those global services
   that the ecosystems provide, such as storing
   carbon.

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Ecological Economic Theory
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Resource Management

1. The worlds poor depend on local ecosystem
   capital resources particularly water, soil for
   growing food, and forests for firewood.
2. They often live on marginal lands of high
   ecological sensitivity steep slopes, dry lands,
   and so forth.
3. Many lack access to enough land to provide an
   income and often depend on foraging in woodlands,
   grasslands, and coastal ecosystems.

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Resource Management

• D. Over 2 billion people depend for their heating
  and cooking needs on biomass fuels (woods,
  grasses, etc.) that they gather from natural
  areas.
• E. Such pressures have stripped the forests from
  the Garo Hills in northeast India and are
  destroying the mangrove swamps of West Africa.

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Utilizing Resources Poorly

• A. Failing to replant trees and thus preventing
  soil erosion.

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The 5 Keys to Alleviating Poverty

1. Education/Literacy
2. Enhanced health and nutrition leads to lower
   child mortality.
3. Family planning education and services leads to
   fewer children and stabilization of the
   population.
4. Enhanced earning capacity.
5. Better resource management (environmental
   protection)

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Unsustainable vs. Sustainable
Characteristic
Environmentally Sustainable Economic Development
Unsustainable Economic Growth
Production emphasis Natural resources Resource
productivity Resource throughput Resource
type emphasized Resource fate Pollution
control Guiding principles
Quantity Not very important Inefficient (high
waste) High Nonrenewable Matter
discarded Cleanup (output reduction) Riskbene
fit analysis
Quality Very important Efficient (low
waste) Low Renewable Matter recycled, reused,
or composted Prevention (input
reduction) Prevention and precaution
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Population Growth

• More often what happens is that the resources
  slowly decrease, the growth rate slowly
  decreases, and they meet.
• This point that they oscillate around is the
  carrying capacity of the environment for that
  particular organism
• So when would you harvest these individuals?
  (1,2,3,4,or 5)

S - shaped curve
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World Population Trends
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World Population Trends

• Source International Monetary Fund

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Please make sure that you understand the Big
Picture