Presentation Title Presented by Andrew Santo APL [phone] [e-mail]

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Glenn Mason Johns Hopkins University Applied
Physics Laboratory Gary Zank University of
California at Riverside
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The Big Picture

• From initiation to reaching astronauts and
  sensitive equipment, how are solar energetic
  particle (SEP) events initiated and how do they
  evolve?

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• Time-intensity profiles plus
• H, alpha,heavy ions
• spectra
• electrons
• anisotropy
• shock arrival time

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Status of Current Operational Models --

• Currently climatological and empirically based
• Air Force Weather Agency and NOAA/SEL
• trigger on flare electromagnetic emission
• NOAA predicts on x-rays AF on microwaves or
  X-rays use optical position of active region
• NOAA predicts peak flux
• AF predicts time, intensity, and spectra (assumes
  404 km/s solar wind assumption and Archimedes
  spiral)
• NOAA supports SRAG via GOES NASA takes GOES data
  and predicts doses inside the ISS
• Average well-connected event hit max within
  order of magnitude and timing of maximum within a
  couple of hours
• Fails apart for shock-dominated events
• Statistically averaged rise time is based on IMP
  data
• Eastern hemisphere worse
• Current models do badly in predicting extreme
  events

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Group C consensus on current models -

• Known physics is not included in current models
• Needs to be added but how?
• Global physics-based models are under
  development
• SEP event model (CISM)
• Bats-R-Us
• Solpenco
• Riverside
• others?

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Future Directions -

• Model validation - detailed comparisons of
  composition and spectra as well as arrival time
  and peak flux for largest events are needed to
  validate improved models
• Current comparison of model calculations and data
  is spotty - progress requires systematic
  validation of models against large numbers of
  past and future events
• Possible focus area for TRT

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Future Directions 2 -

• Model validation and improvement requires
  knowledge of the boundary conditions
• All models require inputs - must specify
  constants of motion and conditions on interface
• Solar wind conditions
• Magnetic flux, etc.
• Need new observations or new proxies
• Some are known, e.g. CMEs
• Some require new observations
• UV observations at 90
• magnetic fields particles near Sun
• Some require new work, e.g. turbulence spectrum
  and amplitude

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Conclusions --

• The Heliophysics Community recognizes its
  responsibility to contribute in a timely manner
  to the VSE by
• Improving basic understanding of governing
  physical processes of the space radiation
  environment
• Developing models that can form the basis of
  greatly improved predictive models
• Validating these models with improved
  observations
• Developing the conceptual and hardware
  infrastructure for an operational space weather
  system
• Carrying out exciting exploratory missions such
  as Solar Probe and Interstellar Probe

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Group C Participants
Jim Adams, Tim Bastian, C. M. S. Cohen, Len Fisk,
Bernard Flick, Ghee Fry, Toni Galvin, Joe
Giacalone, Dennis Haggerty, George Ho, Steve
Johnson, Randy Jokipii, Jon Krall, David Lario,
Bob Lin, Glenn Mason (co-chair), Dick Mewaldt,
Ralph McNutt, John Raymond, Ed Roelof, Don Smart,
Leonard Strachan, Larry Townsend, Tycho von
Rosenvinge, Gary Zank (co-chair), Thomas
Zurbuchen, Ron Zwickl