Introduction to the presentation

1
Introduction to the presentation

• ObjectiveTo provide a framework to analyse
  yourforesight exercise and compare it to
  possible foresight methods.
• ConceptA foresight exercise can be characterized
  by specific indicators and this profile can be
  compared with the profiles of foresight methods.
  Two main categories are used The objectives of
  the foresight and the context in which the
  foresight takes place. Indicators are used for
  further specification.
• PresentationThis presentation includes the
  profiles of several foresight methods and a
  template to create the profile of your foresight
  exercise (slide 4). In slides 2 and three, the
  indicators used are discussed.

Foresight methods included Foresight methods included
Technology roadmapping Essays Backcasting Consultation Delphi survey Scenario analysis Panel discussions Desk research
2
Objectives
Dimension Dimension Description
Objects Science Technology (SNT) The extent view on main scientific and technological developments are the objective
Objects Institutional aspects The extent the institutional dimensions are perceived important objectives
Objects Social-economic aspects The extent social and economic aspects are percieved important objectives
Content Level of Specificity The level of specificity about the object of foresight needed as input in the policy process
Content Level of Analysis The level of strategic analysis needed as input in the policy process
Content Level of Normativity The level of normative values by which policy is driven and a desired future is already set.
Content Time Horizon Time horizons of the policy central to the exercise
Process Development of Support The importance of development of policy support among the main stakeholders?
Process Network development How important is the development of new interactions and networks?
Process Role in Policy process How will the results be used in the policy process? Information, Strategic intelligence, Decision making
3
Context
Dimension Dimension Description
Stakeholders Management involvement The level of management involved in the policy processes (and will be in the foresight exercise).
Stakeholders Level of expertise The level of expertise involved in the policy processes (and will be involved in the foresight exercise).
Stakeholders Commitment of Stakeholders The extent involvement of external actors/stakeholders is required.
Stakeholders Geographical Distribution The geographical distribution of the stakeholders.
Resources Involvement of External Actors The extent external actors/stakeholders are able/ willing to invest time in the foresight exercise.
Resources Internal Human Resources The amount of internal human resources available for the foresight exercise.
Resources Budget The available budget for the foresight exercise.
Resources Time Scheme The time available for the foresight exercise.
4
Own foresight exercise

1. Activate the shaded areas by clicking on them
2. Go in editing mode by right mouse click and
   select edit points
3. Change the area by dragging a point to the
   specific level
4. Copy the shaded area by ctrl-c
5. Go to the relevant Spider diagram and paste
   (ctrl-v)

5
Technology roadmapping
6
Delphi survey
7
Essays
8
Scenario analysis
9
Backcasting
10
Panel discussions
11
Desk research
12
Consultation