LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS KAZAKHSTAN PART 2: EARTHQUAKE

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LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE
DISASTERSKAZAKHSTANPART 2 EARTHQUAKE

• Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster
  Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA 

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KAZAKSTANCOPING WITH EARTHQUAKE RISK IN AN AREA
OF CONTINENTIAL COLLISION
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LOCATION OF KAZAKHSTAN
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THE M8.4 CHILIK EARTHQUAKE OF JULY 31, 1889

• One of the worlds largest historic intraplate
  reverse-faulting events.
• Many landslides occurred in the region of the
  Chilik and Charyn rivers and in the mountains..

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THE M8.4 CHILIK EARTHQUAKE OF JULY 31, 1889
(continued)

• Many buildings collapsed from the strong ground
  shaking..

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RECENT EARTHQUAKE1128 PM, MAY 31, 2012

• A strong, shallow, but much smaller earthquake
  occurred near the Altyn Emel National Park area,
  a sparsely populated part of Eastern Kazakhstan,
  about 50 km from the epicenter of the 1889 Chilik
  quake.

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TO BECOME EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENT IS THE
CHALLENGE
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ELEMENTS OF RISK
RISK
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RISK ASSESSMENT FOR A COMMUNITY
RISK HAZARD x EXPOSURE SPECIFIC HAZARD
EXPOSURE PEOPLE BUILDING
STOCK INFRASTRUCTURE GOVERNMENT AND
BUSINESS ENTERPRISE
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COMMUNITY
DATA BASES AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN
UP AFTERSHOCKS
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A DISASTER OCCURS WHEN THE NATIONAL POLICIES
ALLOW IT TO BE

• UNPREPARED
• UNPROTECTED
• UNABLE TO RESPOND EFFECTIVELY
• UN (NON)--RESILIENT

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THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

• 1. PREPAREDNESS (HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK
  ASSESSMENTS PREDICTIONS, FORECASTS AND WARNING
  DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIOS INSURANCE
  INTELLIGENT COMMUNITY)

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KAZAKHSTAN HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK
ASSESSMENTS

• WHERE WILL THE NEXT BIG QUAKE OCCUR?
• WHEN?
• THE PHYSICAL EFFECTS?
• HOW BIG OR SEVERE?
• WHAT IS AT RISK?
• THEIR VULNERABILITIES?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

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KAZAKHSTAN HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK
ASSESSMENTS

• WHERE WILL THE NEXT BIG QUAKE OCCUR?
• WHEN?
• THE PHYSICAL EFFECTS?
• HOW BIG OR SEVERE?
• WHAT IS AT RISK?
• THEIR VULNERABILITIES?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

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THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
(Continued)

• 2. PROTECTION (IMPLEMENTATION OF BUILDING CODES
  AND LIFELINE STANDARDS SITE-SPECIFIC DESIGN AND
  PERFORMANCE STANDARDS FOR ESSENTIAL AND
  CRITICAL FACILITIES)

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FROM UNPROTECTED TO PROTECTED
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IMPORTANT BUILDINGS AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
NEED PROTECTION
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THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
(Continued)

• 3. EARLY WARNING (but not yet for earthquakes
  (ADVANCE WARNING MESSAGES, EVACUATION TO SAFE
  HAVENS, MASS CARE, RETURN TO HOMES OR TEMPORARY
  SHELTERS)

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FROM UNWARNED TO SAFELY EVACUATED
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THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
(Continued)

• 4. EMERGENCY RESPONSE (EVACUATION EMERGENCY
  MEDICAL MASS CARE SEARCH AND RESCUE EMERGENCY
  TRANSPORTATION, LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND
  INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE)

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FROM UNABLE TO RESPOND EFECTIVELY TO
INTELLIGENT RESPONSE
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THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
(Continued)

• 4. RECOVERY RECONSTRUCTION (INSURANCE
  INDEMNIFICATION, LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND GLOBAL
  BUSINESS RESUMPTION POST-DISASTER STUDIES FOR
  PRE-DISASTER PREPAREDNESS, )

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FROM A UN (NON)RESILIENT CITY TO A RESILIENT
CITY
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A CITY BECOMES DISASTER RESILIENT WHEN IT IS

• PREPARED FOR THE INEVITABLE NATURAL HAZARDS THAT
  ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT THE WRONG TIME AND IN THE
  WRONG PLACE RELATIVE TO THE CITYS SOCIAL
  CONSTRUCTS

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A CITY BECOMES DISASTER RESILIENT WHEN

• ITS PEOPLE, BUILDINGS, INFRASTRUCTURE, ESSENTIAL
  AND CRITICAL FACILITIES ARE PROTECTED BY CODES
  STANDARDS AGAINST THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS
  OF LIKELY NATURAL HAZARDS

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A CITY BECOMES DISASTER RESILIENT WHEN

• IT IS ABLE TO A) RESPOND EFFECTIVELY IN REAL
  TIME TO MOVE PEOLE OUT OF HARMS WAY, B) MEET
  THEIR NEEDS IN A CRISIS ENVIRONMENT, AND C)
  PROTECT ASSETS, WITH AND WITHOUT HELP

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A CITY BECOMES DISASTER RESILIENT WHEN

• ITS POLICIES NOT ONLY RESIST DISASTERS WITHOUT
  FAILING, BUT ALSO ARE MANDATES TO LOOK BEYOND TO
  A FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMNT

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DISASTER RESILIENCE INTEGRATES RESEARCH AND
SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE GAINED FROM DISASTER
LABORATORIES WITH EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES AND THE
COMMUNITYS POLITICAL PROCESS TO ADOPT REALISTIC
PUBLIC POLICIES

• FORD

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COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE
WHATS NEEDED TO FIND THE COMMON AGENDA (CA) OF
TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS
TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS
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THE EFFECTIVE SOLUTION FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
FACT THE COMMON AGENDA IS BASED ON EACH
COMMUNITYS UNIQUE STAPLE FACTORS
TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS