A Strategic Approach to Environmental Prediction: Evolving Perspectives from Canada

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A Strategic Approach to Environmental Prediction
Evolving Perspectives from Canada

• Numerical Modelling Policy Interface Workshop
• Stuttgart, Germany
• March 12-13, 2007

Mark Cantwell Federal Department of the
Environment
Canada
Environment Canada
Environement Canada
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Presentation Objectives Outline

• Workshop Objective
• To explore and close the disconnect between
  numerical modelling and policy development
• Presentation Premise
• Disconnect is a moving target that consists of
  varying scales and levels todays gap is not
  tomorrows gap
• That policy makers are not interested in models
  per se, they are interested in (and sometimes
  afraid of) predictive decision-support tools
  that help minimise societal risk and maximise
  opportunities
• Thus critical to establish a mechanism for
  continuously evaluating responding to the
  changing disconnect meeting policy needs
  requires a strategic approach
• Presentation Objective
• To covey the lessons learned by Environment
  Canada during development of such a mechanism

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Context for Presentation

• Environmental Prediction is the future of this
  Department
• Deputy Minister, Environment Canada, May
  2005
• Summer 2005 Meteorological Service of Canada
  (MSC) began to investigate promote the benefits
  of/demands for EP and to formulate a strategic
  approach that would lead to
• Widespread appreciation of EP and its potential
• Enhanced strategic Departmental investments for
  policy development program delivery
• A draft EP Framework has since been developed and
  endorsed by senior managers responsible for
  Environment Canadas MSC Branch, Science
  Technology Branch, and Operations
  Infrastructure Branch, as well as various other
  senior regional managers.
• Next phase initiating discussions concerning
  implementation of the EP Strategic Framework and
  potential implications for national policy
  development in Canada

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What is EP and why is it needed?
Simple Definition Using knowledge of the
natural and socioeconomic sciences to project
likely or conditional states of the natural world
over any time frame
Risk (probability of Hazard) x (Vulnerability)
i.e., significance of impact
Its about assessing risks/opportunities for
sustainable development
Opportunity (probability of Reward) x
(significance of Reward)

• From NOAA Leadership Seminar

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Know your audience why do policy-makers need EP?

• Generally EP is a fundamental requirement for
  sustainable development
• EP helps government to fulfil legal and
  leadership responsibilities not only for the
  environment, but for human health and safety and
  prosperity
• EP help industry must maximize Return on
  Investment
• Specifically EP is a requirement for
  environmental policy development
• Identifies emerging policy issues
• Diagnoses/contextualises policy issues
• Generates policy options
• More than a tool a policy instrument
• Evidence based policy making accountability
• Integrates pillars of sustainability
• EP that is integrative/contextual and
  receptor-based is more likely to better inform
  adaptation and mitigation policies

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Organising Principles that link knowledge to
action

• First task, first lesson
• Evaluating user needs is complex, requires
  significant effort
• Social sciences advocate co-production between
  users developers leads to innovation,
  effectiveness, relevancy
• Requires communities of action and integration

Recommended readings David Cash, Clark, Alcock,
et al (2002). Salience, Credibility, Legitimacy
and Boundaries Linking Research, Assessment and
Decision Making. John F. Kennedy School of
Government. Harvard University Faculty Research
Working Paper Series. RWP02-046. David W. Cash,
Borck, Patt (2006) Countering the Loading Dock
Approach to Linking Science and Decision-Making
Comparative Analysis of El Nino Southern
Oscillation Forecasting Systems. Journal of
Science, Technology Human Values, Vol. 31, No.
4, 465-494 National Center for Atmospheric
Research Vision to help optimize the use of
natural resources, NCAR must create the knowledge
and the tools needed to reach a full predictive
understanding of the Earth as a system, including
its human dimensions.
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Environmental Prediction Creation Cycle Process
EP-Based Decision Making
Convene Translate Collaborate Mediate
Legitimacy Credibility Relevancy
Feedback loops implicit
Knowledge/Tool Development
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EXAMPLE ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION VISION Canada
creates a safe, prosperous and sustainable future
for themselves and the global commons by wisely
applying environmental prediction knowledge and
tools to their decision-making processes.
EXAMPLE MISSION Environment Canada champions
development and implementation of an EP Strategy
by leading, catalyzing, and/or facilitating
actions that create environmental prediction
knowledge and tools needed by citizens and their
governments to best manage risks and create
opportunities in the areas of human health and
safety, competitiveness and natural capital.
Long Term Management Objective 1 (Health, Safety Security) By 20xx, Canada is a global leader in applying EP knowledge and tools that minimize human health and safety risks and maximize social and cultural opportunities Long Term Management Objective 2 (Competitiveness) By 20xx, Canada is a global leader in applying EP knowledge and tools that minimize risk and maximize opportunity for Canadian productivity and competitiveness. Long Term Management Objective 3 (Natural Capital) By 20xx, Canada is a global leader in applying EP knowledge and tools that minimizes risk and maximizes opportunities to protect, conserve, and enhance natural capital
Example Goals targets Per capita health and life insurance claims arising from environmental impacts is reduced by x Number of Canadians injured or killed by environmental impacts is reduced by x Per capita personal property/infrastructure insurance claims are reduced by x Example Goals targets Per capita industrial infrastructure insurance claims are reduced by x GDP sensitive to environmental changed reduced by x Demand for novel EP knowledge by public and industry rises by x EC understands on an on-going basis the EP needs and requirements of the Canadian public and Industry Example Goals targets Number and use of EP-related tools and techniques available for Environmental Assessments rises by x
ENVIRONMENT PREDICTION STRATEGY Founded on EP Creation Cycle
Policy Making
User needs EP Priority Setting Research Monitoring/ Data Collection Knowledge/ Tool Development Operations/ Infrastructure Dissemination Promotion Evaluation Adaptation
Principles of Co-Production Integration
communities of action Innovation,
efficiency, relevancy
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• Relevant
• Innovative

• Efficient
• Innovative

EP Framework Function
Management Objectives
Thematic Issue User needs EP Priority Setting Research Knowledge/ Tool Development Monitoring/ Data Collection Infrastructure/Operations Dissemination Evaluation Adaptation
Water Quantity
Environmental Outcomes
?
?
?
?
Energy Sector
Issue X
Air Quality
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Characteristics of Framework

• Virtues of Framework
• Explicit process how is evident,
  expectations/responsibilities are clear
• Needs based not a solution in search of a
  problem
• Community based partners coordinated
  integrated, synergies captured
• Real strategy EP components self-manage via
  operating principles
• Adaptive fully responsive to policy priorities
• Challenges of Framework
• Takes time to grow a community learn via
  integration
• Community-based implies power sharing
• Development of new EP knowledge and tools may
  mean re-allocation or seeking of additional
  resources

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End