Climate Change in Southern Africa

1
Climate Change in Southern Africa selected
impacts, responses and the road to Copenhagen
Dr Emma Archer (www.csir.co.za/nre) Dr Mark
Tadross (www.csag.uct.ac.za)
2
Introduction

• Comments - climate change explained and observed
  
• Then look at the projections for Southern Africa
  
• Thinking around adaptation and response
• The road to Copenhagen, and strategies in South
  Africa and SADC Nairobi Declaration (May-June
  2009)
• Chris climate change implications for the water
  sector (example of vulnerable sector others
  include health, human settlements, disaster
  management, biodiversity ecosystem services,
  agriculture, marine and coastal)

3
The greenhouse effect

• Greenhouse gases act like panes of glass in a
  greenhouse
• Allow short wave energy to pass through them
• Trap longer-wave heat radiation that is radiated
  back to the atmosphere from the earths surface
  (changes to atmosphere radiative forcing)

4
So far collective picture of a warming world
IPCC AR4 WG1

• Global average surface temperature has increased
  over 20th century by about 0.6 C
• Climate change already occurring e.g. temp
  raises in parts of SADC
• What of the future?

5
Southern Africa predictions - temperature

• All of Africa is likely to warm during this
  century (IPCC WG1, 2007, Ch 11, pg 866)
• Warming likely gt global annual mean warming
  throughout the continent and in all seasons
• Drier subtropical regions warming more than
  moister tropics

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Significant hydrological changes
June-July-August
December-January-February
IPCC AR4 WG1, Christensen et al
Based on regional studies assessed in IPCC
Chapter 11 Precip increase in gt 90 of
simulations Precip increase in gt 66
simulations Precip decrease in gt 66 of
simulations Precip decrease in gt 90 of
simulations Precip decrease likely Precip
increase likely
Sectors vulnerable to climate risk ?
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Priorities in impacts adaptation

• The flaws of a sectoral approach multi-sector
  strategies (e.g. intra-departmental coordination
  on water-health-livelihoods link in both
  causation and adaptation strategies)
• Acknowledging the challenge of complex
  emergencies/multiple stressors (e.g. cholera
  outbreak summer 2008/9)
• Win-win strategies (e.g. corridor and landscape
  planning as an adaptation strategy)
• Link to overall thinking on policy on climate
  change and environment in Africa multiple
  synergies and the MEAs (more shortly)
• Understanding thresholds and progressive
  exceedances (households, institutions, management
  systems, ecosystems)
• Root adaptation in what is currently done to cope
  with climate variability (from the communal
  farmer to the mining house)

8
How South Africa SADC are tackling climate
change

• Beyond communication dissemination of climate
  risk science to real sectoral multi-sectoral
  impact
• Second National Communication on Climate Change
  (led by SANBI www.sanbi.ac.za)
• Global Change Grand Challenge including Global
  Change Bureau, ACCESS, COE on Sustainability and
  Global Change, SAEON, Risk Vulnerability Atlas
• Adaptation and other climate change units at Dept
  Water Environment
• Units at Dept Water Environment key focus on
  concrete strategies across departments, including
  water, health, disaster management, agriculture
  (planning commission in Office of the Presidency)
• Work in SADC coupling climate change capacity
  building to existing SADC early warning and
  disaster management processes

9
Towards Copenhagen COP15

• Hopes in international climate negotiation that a
  new, international climate change agreement for
  the post-2012 period will be agreed in Copenhagen
  in 2009.
• Again, we are already committed to a certain
  amount of change, even with great progress in
  Copenhagen

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Nairobi Declaration on African Process for
Combating Climate Change (May-June 2009)

• Common African negotiating position on a
  comprehensive international Climate Change regime
  beyond 2012
• ensure that African common position basis
  for negotiations by African group during
  negotiations for post2012 regime takes into
  account Africa priorities (SD,poverty reduction
  and MDGs attainment)
• Develop a comprehensive framework of African
  Climate Change Programmes (coordination
  coherence in implem and review of climate change
  initiatives SD plans in Africa _at_ all levels
  common approach to engaging international
  community)
• Support Africa to increase economic
  competitiveness - low carbon development
• Urge dev countries to set ambitious emissions
  reductions targets (2020 - _at_ least 40 below 1990
  levels 2050 80 95 below 1990 levels)
• Common approach to engaging with the
  international community in developing solutions
  to tackle the challenges posed by climate change
  
• Agreement on the modalities for submitting the
  outcomes of the Special Session to the African
  Union at its summit to be held in July 2009

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Africa priorities for increased support under
future climate regime

• Adaptation
• Capacity building
• Research
• Financing (improved geographical distribution of
  CDM projects expansion of eligible categories to
  benefit from carbon credits other post-2012
  incentives to incl sustainable land use possible
  fund establishment to reduce emissions through
  sustainable land-management practices incl
  forest conservation, sustainable forest
  management, avoidance of deforestation,
  afforestation and sustainable agriculture)
• Technology devt transfer (just mentioned)
• Incl support for South-South transfer of
  knowledge
• Including indigenous knowledge systems

Annex IV Conceptual framework for African
climate change programmes UNEP/AMCEN/12/9
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Sobering realities on the way forward to conclude

• Joanne Yawitch (Water Environment DDG)
  comment on UNFCCC negotations in Bonn
• confident will come out of Copenhagen with an
  architecture of what the Climate Change regime
  will look like (although picture post G8 not
  encouraging)
• very confident that one will get a second Kyoto
  commitment period, with new numbers
• less optimistic that the financial framework
  for developing-country support would be finalized

Christy van der Merwe, Engineering News, June
11th 2009