Living with our changing climate

1
Living with our changing climate

• SessionAdaptation and initiatives supporting
  adaptation
• CSIRO Climate Research and IOCI

2
CSIRO Climate Capabilities

• CSIROs long-standing multi-divisional research
  and expertise
• Ocean processes and dynamics
• Atmospheric processes
• Atmospheric chemistry
• Boundary layer and land-surface interactions
• Hydrology
• Climate modelling
• Climate impacts
• Pests and invasive species
• Climate and water
• Climate and ecosystem/agriculture responses
• Mitigation and abatement of greenhouse gas
  emissions

3
CSIRO Climate Capabilities

• Core CSIRO Climate Research and Applications
  Observations, process studies, system studies,
  climate model development, decision support
  systems, applications to all sectors of the
  economy (from urban to rural, from industry to
  ecosystems)
• Wealth from Oceans Flagship Developing Ocean
  Prediction Capability
• Water for a Healthy Country Flagship Ensuring
  Sustainable Use of Australias Water Resources
• Energy Transformed Flagship Building Capacity
  for Greenhouse Mitigation
• Australian Climate Change Science Program
  Building National Capacity to face Climate Change

4
CSIRO Climate Partnerships

• CSIROs key partnerships
• Australian Bureau of Meteorology
• Australian Universities
• Commonwealth Government
• Australian Greenhouse Office
• Royal Australian Navy
• WA Government
• Indian Ocean Climate Initiative
• Western Australian Marine Science Institution
• State and Territory Governments Industry clients

5
Indian Ocean Climate Initiative

• Conceived, developed in and for Western
  Australia highly effective partnership (WA State
  Agencies CSIRO Bureau of Meteorology Research
  Centre Bureau of Meteorology WA Regional Office)
• Combines observations, modelling and
  applications creating new knowledge about
  Western Australias climate
• Focussed on the south-west
• Building regional capacity
• Strategic research to assist decision making by
  the State partners
• Science priorities determined by a user-driven
  panel

6
Climate Change Adaptation

• Approaches to climate change adaptation
• Requires research on both climate change and
  climate variability
• Requires an integrated multisectoral approach
• Is directed at identifying vulnerability
• Is not a linear process
• We cant afford to wait until the science is
  complete
• We can learn from current adaptive strategies
• Moving from past forms of projections to
  probabilistic projections and risk assessment
  methodologies

7
Climate Change Adaptation
Identifying vulnerability Using adaptation to
mitigate vulnerability
8
Climate Change Adaptation
New methodologies do not follow linear,
sequential approaches
9
Climate Change Adaptation

• Four stages of adaptation
• Autonomous adaptation (we are still within coping
  range)
• Generic adaptation (we need interventions, but
  the generic level is sufficient)
• Specific adaptation (interventions have to be
  specific to industries and to locations)
• Transformative adaptation (when the change is too
  far outside the current range, hard decisions
  will have to be made)
• Mitigation may help stave off the need for
  transformative adaptation

10
CSIRO Climate Change Projections
CSIRO climate projections 2030 2070
11
Probabilistic Projections
Probability of a 1 degree warming by 2030

• 9 GCM Patterns
• 6 IPCC Emission Scenarios
• 3 Climate Sensitivities

162 Scenarios
12
Probabilistic Projections
Probability of adecreasein rainfalllarger than
0by 2030
13
Probabilistic Projections
Probability of adecreasein rainfalllarger than
5by 2030
14
CSIRO Activities in the West

• Regional climate change, regional climate
  variability SW WA rainfall/water resources
• Gnangara Mound, Avon valley water
• Indian Ocean dynamics, Indonesian throughflow,
  and impact on WA climate
• Greenhouse mitigation by reducing methane
  emissions from livestock
• Livestock and pasture production for the future
• Sustainable plantation forestry, carbon
  sequestration
• Air Quality investigations for Wagerup, Burrup
  Peninsula
• Oil Gas Technology (Energy Research Alliance)
• Marine Research (Strategic Research Fund for the
  Marine Environment)
• Western Australian Marine Science Institution

15
WA Stakeholders Collaborators

• CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
• WA Government (whole of Govt, and specific
  departments Fisheries, Conservation and Land
  Management, EPA, ...)
• WA Universities (Curtin, Western Australia,
  Murdoch, Edith Cowan 14 students)
• Coastal and Aquaculture CRCs
• Water Corporation
• Woodside Energy
• Alcoa
• Worsley Alumina
• Western Power
• Griffin Energy

16
Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Report

• Priority vulnerable systems and regions
• Ecosystems and Biodiversity
• Agriculture
• Water Supply
• Settlements and Emergency Services
• Energy
• Regions Cairns Great Barrier Reef Murray
  Darling Basin South West Western Australia
• regional adaptation planning requires
  coordination across all levels of government and
  the involvement of industry, scientists and
  community leaders
• Allen Consulting Group