Individual Dynamics of Poverty, a study tackling changes in poverty in France via the SILC survey

1
Individual Dynamics of Poverty,a study tackling
changes in poverty in France via the SILC survey
2
Plan

• The Survey
• The Concepts and Methods used in the Study
• The Main Results

3
The Survey (1/6)

• The SILC Survey
• Aim follow the incomes, the living conditions,
  the standards of living, and poverty through the
  years
• Successor of the european panel
• Started in 2003 (2004 in France)
• Initially launched on the basis of an agreement
  in 6 Member States and then extended to the whole
  EU Iceland, Switzerland, Norway, Turkey
• Legal act and framework regulation defining the
  technical aspects destined to harmonize the
  collection of data and the target concepts
• Comparison of international data

4
The Survey (2/6)

• Framework Regulation
• Primary module (fixed) and secondary module
  (variable)
• A recommended structure suitable for meeting the
  combined cross-sectional and longitudinal
  requirements (4-sub-sample-pattern)
• Minimum effective sample sizes (cross-sectionnal
  and longitudinal)
• Average interview time one hour, not more
• Deadlines in terms of production availability
  and reports on quality

5
The Survey (3/6)

• The French Version (SRCV 2004 2007)
• Specific pattern cross-sectional and
  longitundinal data linked, 9 sub-samples (instead
  of 4 recommended)
• Compulsory for the first 4 years, facultative
  then
• Target population  ménages ordinaires 
  people living in private households that are not
  part of institutions or community centers
• The data collected in 2004 refers to incomes
  received in 2003
• The survey is part of the french statistics
  system for measuring incomes and living
  conditions

6
The Survey (4/6)

• The Sample

Longitudinal
7
The Survey (5/6)

• Two Dimensions a Single Survey but Two Types of
  Interviews
• The aim of the panel questionnaire is to
  collect the same kind of data as the initial
  questionnaire
• Benefits
• Saving time interview
• Better quality for the follow-up of individuals
• The evolutions as regards collected amounts of
  incomes are controlled

8
The Survey (6/6)

• The Follow-up of Individuals
• Tracing rules applying to individuals (moving,
  death, split household)
• Individuals who do not belong to the target
  population anymore (eg. moved outside the
  country) are dropped from the survey
• Development of the loyalty (presents, New Year
  card, etc) ? high response rate
• Statistical Processing
• The validity of income variables and their
  variations is verified compared to the previous
  value, the coherence is checked within the
  dataset Imputations in case of missing values

9
The Concepts and Methods used in the Study (1/4)

• The Aim of the Study
• Understanding the factors that determine the
  transitions between poverty and non-poverty or
  the persistence of poverty measuring the
  influence of these factors
• To do so study of the individuals dynamics
  through the years and the sociodemographic
  characteristics implying changes as regards
  poverty

10
The Concepts and Methods used in the Study (2/4)

• The Concepts
• Poverty line, based on the income distribution
• The present present population
• Methods
• Acceptable changes ( as real changes)
  variation superior to 10 under (to become poor)
  or above (to come out of the state of poverty)
  the poverty line
• Breakdown of the disposable income in 4 groups
• What does becoming poor, coming out of the
  state of poverty or remaining poor mean ?

11
The Concepts and Methods used in the Study (3/4)
12
The Concepts and Methods used in the Study (4/4)

• What kind of Models ?
• Models for individuals
• To become poor
• To come out of the state of poverty
• Modèles au niveau  ménages 
• To remain poor
• Global model

13
The Main Results (1/8)

• General Results
• Between 2003 and 2006, 22 of the individuals
  have been poor at least a year
• The year-to-year transitions are comparable
  between 2003 and 2006

14
The Main Results (2/8)

• Transitions Statistics

15
The Main Results (3/8)

• Direct Link between the Evolution of Incomes and
  Transitions
• The newcomers to the state of poverty the
  income related to their activity has severely
  decreased (40 on average between the reference
  year and 2006) the part of state helps (housing
  or other helps) in the disposable income
  increases
• People coming out of their state of poverty
  clear rise of the income related to their
  activity

16
The Main Results (4/8)

• Modelising
• Multiple factors
• Family events have an important impact on the
  probability to become poor
• Being employed can prevent from becoming poor
  once a person as slipped below the poverty line,
  being unemployed decreases their chances to rise
  above the poverty line

17
The Main Results (5/8)

• A partner being idle is a factor contributing to
  the persistence of poverty
• The local economy has an influence on the
  transitions

18
The Main Results (6/8)
19
The Main Results (7/8)

• Le modèle global

20
The Main Results (8/8)

• Limits of the Study
• Building econometrics using the panel aspects ?
  neutralize the unobservable individual effects
• Attrition the poor is a population liable to
  move rather frequently

21
Publicity !
The paper is to be released in a forthcoming
publication concerning incomes
22

• Thank you for your attention !!

23
Im not gone yet

• Any questions ?