European%20Forest%20Sector%20Outlook%20Study%20(Joint%20FAO/ECE%20Working%20Party%20on%20Forest%20Economics%20and%20Statistics,%2023%20March%202005)

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European Forest Sector Outlook Study (Joint
FAO/ECE Working Party on Forest Economics and
Statistics, 23 March 2005)
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch

• Kit Prins
• Chief, Timber Branch

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UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
The UNECE Timber Committee (TC) and the FAO
European Forestry Commission (EFC) work together
to promote sustainable forest management in
Europe, the CIS and North America
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UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch

• Many thanks to
• Volker Sasse
• Adrian Whiteman
• The team of specialists
• The national correspondents
• The authors of Discussion Papers

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UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
The Study

• Analyses past trends and future outlook for the
  supply and demand of the goods and services
  provided by the European forests
• Provides a more detailed analysis of the outlook
  for the centrally planned economies, non-wood
  forest products and services, forest management
  and policy
• Special emphasis on cross-sectoral policy
  linkages
• Available in paper copy February 2005

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UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
The EFSOS Region
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UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
Structure of presentation

• Main past trends
• Outlook
• Issues
• Follow-up

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UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
NECE/FAO Timber Branch
Main trends the European Forest

• Area expanding
• Harvest well below increment
• Growing stock constantly rising
• Plantation and forest improvement programmes
• Problems for resource mobilisation in some
  countries (small owners)

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Main trends Forest products and services
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNCE/FAO Timber Branch

• Collapse in eastern Europe and CIS, followed by
  (partial) recovery
• Reconstituted panels have grown faster than
  sawnwood
• gt more demand for small wood, recovered
  materials in western Europe, in 2000, industrial
  roundwood lt 50 of raw material used
• Non-wood products equivalent to perhaps 10-25 of
  value of total forestry production, services the
  same
• Intensification of international trade
• Long term decline in prices

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UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
ROUNDWOOD PRICES FALLING
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UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
INDUSTRIAL ROUNDWOOD AS OF TOTAL FIBRE
CONSUMPTION
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Some other trends
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch

• Increased emphasis on environmental policies and
  sustainable development at all levels
• Changes in ways government works in the sector
  pressures for efficiency and clarity etc.

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Main policies influencing the forest sector
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch

• Greater emphasis on biodiversity and nature
  conservation
• Agricultural, rural and regional development
  policies
• Consequences of the transition process
• Globalisation, innovation and market structures
• Energy, environment, climate change
• Source Thoroe et al. (2004)

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Some rough orders of magnitude(EUR billion,
western Europe/EU)
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch

• Value of wood production 9.9
• Value of non-wood forest products (excl. nuts)
  1.5
• Value of forest recreation 2.6
• Incentives from the state for forestry (national
  EU, including fiscal measures and grants, 11
  countries) 6.0 (wood production in those
  countries 7)
• Source EFSOS sections 2.10, 2.11

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OUTLOOK
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
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DRIVING FORCES
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch

• Continued economic growth, but slower than in the
  past (2.2 p.a.)
• Convergence of living standards in west and east
• Ageing population
• 3 scenarios baseline, conservation,
  integration

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Main policy relevant forecasts (1)
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch

• Recycling and residue use will continue to expand
• Renewable energy policies will increase demand
  for wood
• Europes forest resource will continue to expand
• Fellings will remain below annual increment in
  Europe

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Main policy relevant forecasts (2)
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch

• Forest products trade will intensify further
• Economic viability of forest management will
  remain threatened
• Forestry sector institutions will continue to
  evolve rapidly

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UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
Demand for wood in EUROPE (total), by product
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UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
DEMAND FOR FOREST PRODUCTS, WESTERN EUROPE
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UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
FIBRE SUPPLY, WESTERN EUROPE
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UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
FIBRE SUPPLY FOR PAPER, SAWNWOOD AND PANELS,
TOTAL EUROPE
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UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
COMPLEX RAW MATERIAL FLOWS
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UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
RECOVERY RATE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
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UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
GROWING STOCK, BY SCENARIO
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UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
HARVEST WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW INCREMENT
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Policy recommendations general
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch

• Necessity of a cross-sectoral approach
• Sector should be proactive on climate change
  issues (analysis, communication)
• Improve monitoring of SFM
• Governments work together on forest law
  enforcement and governance

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Policy recommendations markets
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch

• Stimulate sound use of wood
• Balanced implementation of wood energy policies
• Develop the regions comparative advantages

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Policy recommendations SFM
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch

• Improve economic viability of forest management
  in Europe
• Pay attention to employment and work force issues
  (age, lack of skills, low status)
• Control forest fires and intensify international
  cooperation on fires

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Policy recommendations international cooperation
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch

• Address threats to SFM in Balkans and CIS
• Devote policy attention to consequences of shift
  in balance to the east
• Share experiences on institutional change to
  countries in transition
• Intensify input to global level promote European
  experience in SFM

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EFSOS follow up suggestions
UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch

• Stimulate EFSOS based policy discussion at
  national and regional levels
• Stress importance of cross-sectoral dimension,
  explain/discuss issues
• Improve understanding of energy outlook issues,
  tradeoffs
• ????

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UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry
Commission UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
Thank you

• http//www.unece.org/trade/timber
• info.timber_at_unece.org