STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS

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STATE BUDGET OUTLOOKMULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS

• OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND ENTERPRISE SERVICES
• November 1, 2014
• Shelly Paulk
• Revenue Analyst

To be updated after official release of
documents from the December meeting of the State
Board of Equalization.
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GENERAL REVENUE TRENDSINCOME VS.
EXPENDITURES(In Millions)
(3.66)
(2.3)
(2.56)
(2.88)
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General Revenue Fund SourcesTrend Based
Projections, In Millions(TO BE UPDATED WITH DEC.
BOE PROJECTIONS/ESTIMATES)
FY-2016 FY-2017
Ave. 4.3 Growth
Ave. 6.5 Growth
Ave. 1.3 Growth
Ave. 5.1 Growth
Ave. 4.3 Growth
OMES ACTUALS
10-YEAR NORMALIZED TRENDBASED PROJECTIONS
JUNE BOE EST.
SOURCES SHOWN ARE TOTALS NOT REDUCED FOR OHLAP
OR ROADS FUNDING, LESS DEFERRED GP TAX CREDITS
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General Revenue Growth 5 Major Sources(In
Millions, With of Change From Prior Year)
(Total Growth Personal Income Tax, Corporate
Income Tax, Gross Production Gas, Sales Tax,
Motor Vehicle Tax) (TO BE UPDATED WITH DEC. BOE
PROJECTIONS/ESTIMATES)
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.6
6.0
0.5
1.1
10.6
JUNE BOE ESTIMATE
Based on OMES 10-Yr Normalized Trend-Based
Projections Less Deferred GP Gas Tax Credits,
plus OHLAP ROADS Funding
ACTUALS
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PROJECTIONS OF GRF DECLINE AS A PERCENTAGE OF
TOTAL COLLECTIONS
ACTUALS
PROJECTIONS